One key finding from this study is that the impact of geopolitical\nturmoil on SOEs is asymmetric, meaning not all SOEs are affected in the\nsame way.<\/p>\n
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The BUMN Research Group (BRG) of the Management\nInstitute at the Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas\nIndonesia (LM FEB UI), assesses that the geopolitical crisis in the\nStrait of Hormuz region in 2026 will test the resilience of several\nSOEs.<\/p>\n
This crisis triggers uneven impacts on the performance of each SOE.\nThe study results show that not all SOEs are negatively affected by the\nsurge in global energy prices; some even stand to gain.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne key finding from this study is that the impact of geopolitical\nturmoil on SOEs is asymmetric, meaning not all SOEs are affected in the\nsame way,\u201d said Managing Partner of BRG LM FEB UI, Toto Pranoto, in a\nwritten statement in Jakarta on Saturday.<\/p>\n
In the policy study titled Resilience of SOEs Facing Geopolitical\nRisks: Stress Test of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis, it is explained\nthat the group of SOEs most pressured are those with high dependence on\nenergy imports, exchange rates, and raw materials from abroad.<\/p>\n
Energy companies like Pertamina face a heavy burden from oil imports\namid a global price surge, while PLN faces pressure from US dollar-based\nelectricity purchase contracts and the gap between the cost of\nproduction and electricity selling tariffs.<\/p>\n
In addition, the transportation sector is also significantly\nimpacted. Airlines like Garuda Indonesia, for instance, experience\noperational cost pressures due to rising aviation fuel prices, which is\na major component of business expenses.<\/p>\n
\u201cASDP, BUMN Karya, Pupuk Indonesia, and several other entities also\nfeel the pressure through different channels, ranging from increases in\nasphalt and construction raw material prices to disruptions in the\nfertiliser supply chain,\u201d said Toto.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Toto noted that there is a group of SOEs that\nactually benefits from the situation, particularly those operating in\nthe export commodities sector.<\/p>\n
Coal companies like Bukit Asam benefit from the rise in global energy\nprices, while the palm oil (CPO) sector enjoys increased competitiveness\nof biodiesel as oil prices become more expensive.<\/p>\n
The palm oil sector tends to gain windfalls when energy prices rise,\nas CPO-based biodiesel becomes more competitive.<\/p>\n
Then, mining companies like Freeport Indonesia and the mining\nindustry holding MIND ID also benefit from rising prices of minerals\nsuch as copper and gold.<\/p>\n
Toto explained that this asymmetric pattern shows that the SOE\nportfolio managed by Danantara actually has the potential for a natural\nhedge, whereby gains from one group can help offset pressures on another\ngroup.<\/p>\n
However, the study also notes that this potential can only be\noptimised if there is an appropriate coordination mechanism at the\nholding level. Currently, according to BRG findings, such mechanisms are\nnot yet fully in place.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis natural hedge potential exists, but it is not yet fully managed\nbecause cross-SOE allocation and coordination mechanisms are still\nlimited,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In the study, BRG also highlights the pressure on the State Revenue\nand Expenditure Budget (APBN) due to a surge in world oil prices\nexceeding the base assumption.<\/p>\n
With an oil price assumption of around 70 US dollars per barrel in\nthe 2026 APBN, a rise to above 90 US dollars could potentially increase\nthe burden of energy subsidies and compensation.<\/p>\n
As mitigation steps, BRG recommends 10 measures divided into three\ntime frames.<\/p>\n
In the short term (0\u20136 months), the study recommends four steps:\ngradual diversification of crude oil supply sources while considering\nthe technical compatibility of domestic refineries, increasing fuel\nreserves capacity through bilateral emergency reserve cooperation,\ndeveloping commodity energy price hedging capacity, and establishing a\nresource allocation mechanism at the Danantara level.<\/p>\n
For the medium term (6\u201336 months), recommendations include gradually\nbuilding strategic oil reserves, reforming the fuel price mechanism to\nbe more responsive to market conditions, accelerating the completion of\ndomestic refinery projects, and strengthening PLN\u2019s foreign exchange\nrisk management.<\/p>\n
Cross-sectorally, the study also proposes the establishment of a\nCommodity Stabilisation Fund by Danantara as a buffer fund to hold\nrevenues when commodity prices are high and to be used during crises, as\nwell as conducting periodic stress tests on the SOE portfolio.<\/p>\n
\u201cStrengthening coordination at the holding level and stabilisation\ninstruments is key to making SOEs more resilient to global geopolitical\nturmoil,\u201d said Toto.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/ui-feb-lm-study-indicates-hormuz-crisis-tests-resilience-of-several-soes-1774705874", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }