A forecast has practical value only if it changes what governments,\nbusinesses, and communities do before a hazard peaks. The longer action\nis delayed, the fewer choices remain.<\/p>\n
The urgency is clear. The United Nations Environment Programme\u2019s\n(UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target estimates that current\npolicies put the world on a path toward 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming\nthis century.<\/p>\n
Even with full implementation of countries\u2019 Nationally Determined\nContributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, warming is projected at\n2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius. UNEP also warns that the 1.5-degree Celsius\nthreshold is likely to be exceeded in the coming decade.<\/p>\n
Recent events show how climate risks can spread beyond the weather\nsector. Heatwaves and water constraints in France have affected nuclear\npower operations that depend on water for cooling.<\/p>\n
Low water levels on Germany\u2019s Rhine have disrupted shipping, while\nwater shortages have prompted the Panama Canal to restrict daily vessel\ntransits.<\/p>\n
Water stress can affect energy, transport, industry, trade, and\npublic services. The earlier a risk is identified, the greater the room\nfor preventive action.<\/p>\n
For Indonesia, that principle is especially relevant as El Nino\nstrengthens in 2026.<\/p>\n
Reading the signals<\/p>\n
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provides a clear example\nof why lead time matters.<\/p>\n
In June, WMO estimated an 80 percent chance of El Nino during\nJune-August 2026, while the probability of it continuing through at\nleast November was near or above 90 percent.<\/p>\n
On July 31, WMO reported that a strong El Nino was developing and\nexpected to strengthen during August-October.<\/p>\n
By September 3, it reported that El Nino was firmly established and\nexpected to intensify into a very strong event, with the probability of\npersistence through February 2027 approaching 100 percent.<\/p>\n
The sequence shows how climate information can become more certain\nwhile governments still have time to prepare.<\/p>\n
WMO has emphasized that reliable forecasts give governments,\nbusinesses, humanitarian agencies, and communities valuable time to act.\nBut a global forecast is only a starting point.<\/p>\n
The strength of El Nino alone does not determine impacts in a\nparticular location, which vary by region, season, and other climate\ndrivers.<\/p>\n
Global signals therefore need to be translated into local information\nthat authorities and communities can use to decide what to do, when to\nact, and where resources should go.<\/p>\n
Indonesia is not starting from zero. The Meteorology, Climatology and\nGeophysical Agency (BMKG) provides information on El Nino and drier\nconditions to support preparedness for forest and land fires, water\nmanagement, agriculture, and vulnerable communities.<\/p>\n
A warning tells people what may happen. Anticipation determines what\nto do before it happens. That requires information to move quickly into\ndecisions and resources.<\/p>\n
On September 1, the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance at the\nMinistry of Finance, together with the United Nations Office for\nDisaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the Bandung Institute of Technology\n(ITB), launched the Adaptive Regional Integrated System for Fiscal\nResilience (ARISE).<\/p>\n
The system links hazard information with exposure, vulnerability,\npotential economic losses, and fiscal impacts, helping local governments\nanticipate the financial consequences of disasters.<\/p>\n
Forecast-based financing applies the same principle by using\nforecasts and risk indicators to trigger funding before impacts\noccur.<\/p>\n
From warning to action<\/p>\n
An effective anticipatory system needs more than accurate forecasts.\nIt needs clear risk thresholds, decision-making authority, accessible\nfinancing, prepared measures, and communities capable of responding.<\/p>\n
If any link is delayed, the lead time provided by a forecast begins\nto disappear.<\/p>\n
Deputy for Prevention at the National Disaster Management Agency\n(BNPB) Abdul Muhari has described this as response latency, when\ncommunities begin evacuating only after a disaster\u2019s impacts have\nstarted. Ideally, evacuation should peak before casualties do.<\/p>\n
The same principle applies beyond evacuation. Farmers need time to\nadjust production, water managers to secure supplies, and authorities to\nstrengthen fire prevention and public services.<\/p>\n
Vulnerable households may need financial or social protection before\nthey can act.<\/p>\n
Receiving a warning does not automatically mean having the ability to\nstop working, move assets, or absorb lost income. An effective\nanticipatory system must therefore consider not only what hazard is\ncoming, but who can realistically respond.<\/p>\n
Forecast uncertainty should not become a reason to wait until impacts\nbecome visible. Governments can set risk thresholds that trigger\npredefined actions, using available information to reduce avoidable\nlosses rather than waiting for perfect certainty.<\/p>\n
Indonesia already has many of the necessary building blocks. Stronger\nforecasts can extend lead time, early-warning systems can improve\ncommunication, and fiscal and social-protection tools can help turn\nwarnings into action.<\/p>\n
Early action, however, must complement longer-term climate policy.\nAdaptation is essential to manage drought, heat, floods, and water\nstress, while emissions must continue to fall because adaptation alone\ncannot prevent future warming.<\/p>\n
The climate crisis is not simply a test of whether risks can be\nidentified. It is a test of whether information can be turned into\naction before its practical value is lost.<\/p>\n
For Indonesia, the priority is to connect forecasts, early warnings,\nrisk reduction, adaptation, and financing so that knowing what may come\nleads to deciding what to do - and doing it in time.<\/p>\n
*Martha Herlinawati Simanjuntak is a journalist at the ANTARA News\nAgency<\/p>\n
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the\nauthor and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of\nthe ANTARA News Agency.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/turning-climate-warnings-into-early-action-1789127468", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }