Tudjman faces formidable challenges ahead<\/p>\n
By Tjipta Lesmana<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Franjo Tudjman indeed has the legitimacy of
\nbecoming the \"Father of the Croatian Nation\". It was him who
\nconsistently challenged the monopolistic power of Serbia in the
\nFederal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). It was him who finally
\nbrought independence to his people six years ago.<\/p>\n
Vjkoslav Koprivnjak, the last FRY ambassador to Indonesia,
\ntold me that Tudjman, a former general, used to work as a
\nspeechwriter for Tito, the founding father of Yugoslavia.<\/p>\n
No doubt he has been an admirer of Tito, also himself a Croat.
\nThe challenges to the central authority of Yugoslavia were not
\nbecause Tudjman betrayed Tito's ideal of uniting all southern
\nSlavs. His persistent struggle against Slobodan Milosevic, the
\nSerbian leader, was strongly motivated by his suspicion that
\nMilosevic was gradually positioning himself as Tito's heir and,
\nout of fear, thought that Milosevic would sooner or later
\nrecreate the old Serbian dream of Great Serbia.<\/p>\n
But the idea to secede at that time was considered beyond
\nreason. \"What will be the fate of Serbs living in Croatia? Will
\nthey just be thrown out?\" asked Koprivnjak, a Croat, ignoring a
\n1995 plebiscitary ruling in his republic, which proclaimed Croats
\nunanimous wish to leave Yugoslavia.<\/p>\n
The Serbs promptly responded to the independent path of Croats
\n(and Slovens) by incessantly firing rockets and dropping bombs.
\nThey ignored the fact that Tudjman had conditioned his people to
\nfight \"the occupier\" vigorously, whatever the cost. Under his
\ncommand and through world intervention, the Serbs finally bowed
\nout and allowed Croatian freedom.<\/p>\n
Croatian achievement in economic reformation has been amazing.
\n\"In the beginning we had nothing, but a strong will,\" Dr.
\nBorislav Skegro, deputy prime minister in charge of the economy,
\ntold this writer at his modest office in Zagreb. \"Inflation ran
\nat about 25 percent per month, unemployment 30 percent to 40
\npercent, foreign currency reserves were nil. In addition to the
\nfragile economy, we were also burdened by a great amount of FRY
\ndebt.\"<\/p>\n
At the end of 1996 the economy had a growth rate of 8 percent,
\nThe Kuna stabilized and was made convertible (6.2 Kuna equals
\nUS$1), annual inflation ran only 2 percent, exports exceeded
\nimports, and all foreign debt was repaid.<\/p>\n
Today Croatia has totally different political, economic and
\nsocial systems. Skegro said the success was partly due to foreign
\ncapital investment which was pumped into the economy rapidly.
\nParticipation of well-meaning Croats living abroad was a vital
\ncontribution, as well, particularly in making privatization a
\nsuccess. Most of all, he said, \"Croatia, today, has a totally
\ncompatible legal framework for doing business.\"<\/p>\n
Economic transformation undoubtedly carries over some enormous
\nside effects. \"Turning people from a communist system to a
\ncapitalist system is not easy,\" said Ivan Gradesic, a professor
\nof political science at the University of Zagreb.<\/p>\n
It is an expensive transformation, indeed, economically,
\nsocially and politically. The introduction of a market economy
\nand private ownership has cut through the social safety net.<\/p>\n
All socialistic institutions, including long-term unemployment
\nbenefits, education, easy to get sick leave, subsidized living
\nexpenses and rents, have been cut drastically in the post-
\ncommunist era. People were thrown into the market arena very
\nquickly, something they were not used to and were not mentally
\nprepared for.<\/p>\n
At this point, according to Prof. Gradesic, people have to
\nlearn how to live within the market system. \"If you have nothing
\nto offer the market -- skills, money or land -- you are either on
\nstate social welfare or thrown out into the street,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Many problems arise from this transition. The most pervasive
\none is social injustice. There is a lot of talk about social
\ninjustice, either in the campaigns of local and municipal
\nelections in April or the recent presidential election.<\/p>\n
In essence, people ask that the burdens of transition be
\ndistributed more equally, since there were a lot of people who
\nbecame rich quickly over night.<\/p>\n
Why? \"Because they were at the right place at the right time
\nin terms of political connections or skills, or in other ways,
\nnot through their inheritance or the capital they invested. They
\njust became rich through a different scheme,\" Gradesic said,
\nmentioning a case of a truck driver who is now a major owner of a
\nroad industry.<\/p>\n
Along with 180 journalists from 15 countries of Europe, the
\nAmericas and Asia, we cruised to the southern coast of Dubrovnik,
\nCorcula, Hvar and Split. People in the streets talked to us and
\ngave similar opinions of the current economic situation. They
\nunanimously agreed that life is getting tougher today. \"We cannot
\nsave even a penny. All the money we earn is entirely used for
\nfood and clothing only,\" said one person.<\/p>\n
More and more people are becoming unemployed. Skegro said the
\ncurrent unemployment rate was 10 percent. The rate might be in
\nfact much more. Elderly and disabled (casualties of war) people
\ncould also be added to the total rate.<\/p>\n
Apart from economic hardship, there is no \"let's go back to
\ncommunism\" backlash. Leaders of SDP, a former communist party,
\nfailed to exploit people's discontent for their political gain.
\nAll whom I have met said \"no\" in turning back the clock to
\ncommunism.<\/p>\n
But social injustice and inequality have became the main
\nthemes of opposition parties in their campaigns. The ruling
\nparty, HDZ, which was founded by Tudjman, was seemingly too
\nstrong to be defeated in both elections, thanks to his legacy as
\nthe \"Father of the Croatian Nation\".<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, his popularity rating is undoubtedly sliding
\nfast. There has been a lot of talk among people on the business
\nactivities run by his family, particularly his eldest daughter.
\nHis ability to manipulate television coverage has incited
\ncriticism, too. Meanwhile, the Western press, particularly the
\nU.S., has put a spotlight on his moves to eradicate the crime of
\nformer traitors known as Ustashe.<\/p>\n
During his reelection victory speech, Tudjman promised that a
\n\"rich and democratic\" Croatia would be his second-term objective
\nin office. The political, economic and social challenges
\nconfronting Tudjman are indeed paramount. The trickiest one has
\nbeen his inability to name a potential heir at his age of 75
\nyears.<\/p>\n
The writer is a columnist and a lecturer at the political and
\nsocial sciences department of the University of Indonesia.<\/p>",
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