Tsunami produces new political and geopolitical landscape<\/p>\n
Michael Vatikiotis, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur<\/p>\n
Three months after the tsunami, Southeast Asia is feeling the
\npolitical and geopolitical aftershocks.<\/p>\n
The Dec. 26 tsunami swept away more than a quarter of a
\nmillion lives in South and Southeast Asia and affected millions
\nmore in terms of the numbers of aggrieved, homeless, and deeply
\nshocked.<\/p>\n
So perhaps it seems callous to begin calculating the political
\nor geo-political fallout. And yet, as with any major event,
\ncatastrophic or not, there is a political effect. Here are some
\nworth noting:<\/p>\n
o Before the tsunami, the United States viewed much of Muslim
\nAsia as a haven for terrorists and had started to pull back on
\naid and development programs to those areas deemed as terrorist
\n"friendly". After the tsunami, the U.S. realized that by playing
\na humanitarian role, its military forces could win back trust and
\nfriendship.<\/p>\n
o Before the tsunami, Australia and Indonesia eyed each other
\nsuspiciously in the wake of the East Timor debacle and two terror
\nattacks that killed Australians. After the tsunami, the two
\ncountries were talking about a new security agreement and
\nIndonesia was offering to be a bridge for Australia into Asia.<\/p>\n
o Before the tsunami, Indonesia's military was waging a low-
\nkey war against Acehnese rebels and had killed almost 3,000
\npeople in less than two years.<\/p>\n
After the tsunami, the Indonesian government and the Gerakan
\nAceh Merdeka resumed peace negotiations.<\/p>\n
o Before the tsunami, Singapore was widely viewed by its
\nneighbors as a self-centered little nation that looked down on
\nits neighbors. After the tsunami, Singaporeans were lionized for
\norganizing effective and timely relief operations and were
\nreferred to as "sons of the soil" in a Meulaboh marketplace.<\/p>\n
o Before the tsunami, Sri Lanka was successfully rebuilding
\nits economy on the back of a tenuous but holding peace deal with
\nTamil rebels and a thriving tourist industry. After the tsunami,
\nthe fragile peace is still in place, but the tourists are gone
\nand the country has to start from scratch.<\/p>\n
o Before the tsunami, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
\nwas battling perceptions at home that he was an autocratic leader
\nsquandering his country's wealth. After the tsunami, he was
\npraised for being a decisive leader quick to rush help to
\ndevastated Phuket Island. He won praise at home and a bigger than
\nexpected landslide election victory.<\/p>\n
Such is the way that disaster shapes politics amid so much
\ndeath and human suffering. The people of this region have a way
\nof putting natural calamity behind them and getting on with their
\nlives. In fact, it has been observed how fast the affected
\neconomies seem to have recovered.<\/p>\n
Thailand's tourist arrivals are back up even if Phuket, the
\nworst affected area, has been slow to recover. Indonesia's
\ncurrency is stable, the markets barely blinked and the only
\nweakness the region worries about is the value of the U.S.
\ndollar.<\/p>\n
Having said this, there are certain lessons to be learned. For
\nthe U.S., the tsunami drove home something that was forgotten in
\nthe anger and aftermath of 9\/11 and the rush to war in Iraq, and
\nthat is that America has the capacity to wield soft power with
\ngreat effect.<\/p>\n
Before the tsunami, the majority of Indonesians viewed
\nAmericans darkly. Now, far fewer do and that's because the
\nMarines hit the beaches of Aceh with water and medicine.<\/p>\n
In a broader sense, the tsunami helped prick the unhelpful and
\ndivisive terrorist bubble. God knows there are bad people out
\nthere and no one wants their cities bombed, their citizens maimed
\nor killed.<\/p>\n
But the divisive way in which the war on terror has been waged
\nwith those who are with or against the victims of terrorist acts,
\nand the flagrant lack of respect for judicial process and
\nsovereignty has seemingly been toned down as the media switched
\nfrom chasing smudged bearded faces wearing white caps to
\nspotlighting the compassion of the thousands who flocked to help
\nout from all parts of the world.<\/p>\n
For ASEAN, the role played by Singapore, in particular, has
\nforever altered regional perceptions of the island republic.
\nBefore the tsunami, people in Malaysia and Indonesia wondered why
\nthe Singapore armed forces needed to be so potently armed and
\nequipped.<\/p>\n
Now that this equipment has been used so effectively for
\nhumanitarian purposes in a neighboring country, the whole region
\nwill start to think about joint exercises to deal with
\nhumanitarian disasters.<\/p>\n
Indeed, you could say that the tsunami has brought the region
\na little closer. Thailand spearheaded an immediate effort to set
\nup a regional tsunami warning system and opened its airspace and
\nair bases to relief flights destined for the worst hit areas in
\nIndonesia.<\/p>\n
Singapore helped co-ordinate regional aid efforts as well,
\noffering to host the United Nations operation and acting as a
\nstaging point for supplies.<\/p>\n
How long this kind of co-ordination will last depends on what
\naspects of this co-operation are set in concrete. Many barriers
\nwere broken down in the rush to help.<\/p>\n
And yet just three months later, Indonesia and Malaysia were
\nsparring over a disputed patch of the Sulawesi Sea and all
\nmemories of how Malaysian aid workers were the first on the
\nground in Aceh were quickly forgotten.<\/p>\n
Perhaps it will take more than a tidal wave to erase deeply
\ningrained suspicions and animosities.<\/p>\n
The one thing that is helping, however, is a man-made tidal
\nwave of demands for justice and freedom.<\/p>\n
Indonesia, the worst affected country, has a new government
\nthat was democratically elected.<\/p>\n
This explains why Susilo is moving towards resolving the
\nconflict in Aceh, broadening ties with Indonesia's neighbors and
\nputting relations with the U.S. on a better footing.<\/p>\n
The writer is a visiting research fellow at the Institute of
\nSoutheast Asian Studies in Singapore.<\/p>",
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