Tsunami moves geopolitical ground too<\/p>\n
Rob Goodfellow, New South Wales<\/p>\n
An unexpected consequence of the Aceh Tsunami Disaster has
\nbeen a movement in the geopolitical ground.<\/p>\n
Behind the scenes the \"tectonic plates\" of regional power are
\nshifting.<\/p>\n
The first movement is from the north. It is based on the fact
\nthat control of the Indian Ocean has hitherto been integral to
\nIndia's interests.<\/p>\n
The Indian Navy is the world's seventh largest. It consists of
\ntwo fleets, the Western Fleet, homeported in Bombay on the
\nArabian Sea, and the Eastern Fleet, homeported in Visakhapatnam,
\non the Bay of Bengal.<\/p>\n
The Americans, who are primarily a Pacific Ocean naval power,
\nhave suddenly and unexpectedly established an Indian Ocean
\npresence, through their military-led tsunami relief efforts.<\/p>\n
The complicating factor is that the Chinese Navy, which
\ncomprises the Northern Fleet (based in Qingdao), the Eastern
\nFleet (Shanghai), the Southern Fleet (Zhanjiang) and a roving
\nfourth force, is also projecting naval power into the South China
\nSea and the Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n
In a game of tactics and position, the Americans have ensured
\nthat their presence in Aceh isolates the Indian Navy and
\nstrategically neutralizes the potential influence of the Chinese.<\/p>\n
American interest in the region has a long history dating back
\nto the 1950s. At this time the North Sumatra-based, CIA-backed,
\nPemerintah Revolusionir Republik Indonesia -- Revolutionary
\nGovernment of the Republic of Indonesia, or PRRI-Rebellion,
\ndirectly challenged Indonesia's foreign policy drift towards the
\nSoviet Union and the People's Republic of China.<\/p>\n
In particular, the U.S was preoccupied with the rise of the
\nPartai Komunis Indonesia -- the PKI, then the third largest
\nCommunist Party in the world.<\/p>\n
During the Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson administrations,
\nIndonesia was known as the U.S foreign policy's \"southern
\nanchor\". When President Sukarno told the U.S \"to go to hell with
\nyour aid\" in March 1964, the Americans believed the Indonesian
\n\"ship had run aground\".<\/p>\n
The pro-U.S, Soeharto-led military countercoup of the early
\nmorning of Oct. 1, 1965, re-set the \"anchor\".<\/p>\n
Today things are much more complicated than during the Cold
\nWar. The ability to positively influence, rather than merely
\ncontrol Indonesia, numerically the world's largest Muslim nation
\n(230 million), remains paramount to the U.S \"War on Terror\".<\/p>\n
The Americans are clearly concerned that the new \"fault line\"
\nin Asia is the threat of a pan-Islamist movement, one that
\npotentially unites the mass-base of Indonesian Islam, the
\nrallying-cry of resentment over the mistreatment of southern Thai
\nMuslims, Malaysian organizational capability and Mindanao-based
\nMoro Islamic Liberation Front experience in guerrilla-warfare.<\/p>\n
The second \"tectonic\" movement is from the south. Australia's
\ndiplomatically sophisticated response to the tsunami disaster has
\nsurprised everyone. The Australian Government is the largest
\nsingle government-to-government donor to disaster relief efforts
\nin Indonesia, contributing a staggering A$1 billion in addition
\nto the proceeds of the largest public fundraising effort in
\nAustralian history.<\/p>\n
All of Prime Minister John Howard's previous diplomatic
\nshortcomings have been temporarily set aside.<\/p>\n
Unlike the U.S, Australia's interests in the region are more
\nabout trade and security than ideology and global power.
\nAustralia is a highly successful trading nation with an economy
\nvalued at some US$800 billion -- which dwarfs Indonesia's $180
\nbillion economy and eclipses the combined economies of the
\nAssociation of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).<\/p>\n
With a population of only 20 million, Australia's continued
\nprosperity relies on security, stability, innovation, trade and
\ngrowth.<\/p>\n
Australia's tsunami response has redefined Australia's role in
\nAsia practically overnight. The established momentum for change,
\nfrom a proto-European, Western-oriented, resources-based economy,
\nto a fully integrated, knowledge-based, regional partner has
\naccelerated. Australians are beginning to genuinely understand
\nthat Indonesia really is their gateway to the markets of Asia.
\nIndeed, Australia's trade security relies on the free movement of
\nshipping along lines that extend from West Timor to the Straits
\nof Malacca.<\/p>\n
Indonesia, on the other hand, is beginning to recognize that
\nAustralia is an asset and not a threat.<\/p>\n
This new found goodwill has reinforced the idea that Indonesia
\nand Australia have at least two things in common. Both have
\nstrategic interests that lay to the north. Indonesia and
\nAustralia are in fact natural strategic allies. Both are cultural
\nbridges between East and West. Indonesia has the capacity to
\nexplain Australia to Asia. Australia is able to explain Indonesia
\nto the U.S. and Europe.<\/p>\n
However, despite diverse North\/South motives, the
\nextraordinary global response to the tsunami disaster is evidence
\nthat the world will not allow \"the southern anchor\" to drift into
\nun-chartered waters; Indonesia is too important. All of the key
\nplayers, the U.S., China, India, Japan and Australia, while
\nadvancing their own interests, at least appreciate that a
\nprosperous, democratic, secular, and unitary Indonesian State
\nwill guard against a different sort of upheaval to the one
\nexperienced on the morning of Dec. 26, 2004.<\/p>\n
Dr Rob Goodfellow is a CAPSTRANS Fellow of the University of
\nWollongong. He can be contacted by e-mail on
\nrobgoodfellow@ozemail.com.au<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/tsunami-moves-geopolitical-ground-too-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
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