US President Donald Trump has been quite explicit in describing the\nnew phase of war across the Persian Gulf. Iran, Trump stated following\nthe latest wave of major US attacks, is attempting to rebuild its radar\nsystems.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo we wait until they are almost finished being rebuilt, then we hit\nthem,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
On Tuesday (1\/9), US forces attacked several targets in Iran again.\nAccording to CENTCOM, the strikes destroyed, among other things, radar\nand air defence systems, maritime facilities, sea mining capabilities,\nand communication facilities belonging to the military and the Islamic\nRevolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).<\/p>\n
\u201cMowing the grass\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran retaliated with missiles and drones targeting US facilities in\nMiddle Eastern countries. Thus, what CENTCOM described a few days\nearlier as a possible strategy for the next phase of war is beginning to\nmaterialise.<\/p>\n
According to the news portal Axios, the limited attacks, which can be\ncarried out repeatedly if necessary, aim to prevent Iran from restoring\nits military capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
A US government official described the idea using a term known in\nIsraeli security policy: \u201cmowing the grass.\u201d<\/p>\n
The metaphor describes a strategy that, from the outset, does not\npromise absolute victory over an opponent. It is sufficient to\nperiodically reduce their military capabilities until the threat remains\nmanageable. When the grass grows back, it is \u201cmowed\u201d again.<\/p>\n
If applied to Iran, this means the United States will monitor which\nmilitary capabilities the adversary is rebuilding, then strike when\nthose capabilities exceed a certain threshold.<\/p>\n
Success with an expiry date<\/p>\n
In recent months, the United States has indeed achieved several\nmilitary successes. US forces have significantly reduced Iran\u2019s military\ncapabilities around the Strait of Hormuz and have begun clearing Iranian\nsea mines.<\/p>\n
However, these successes are not permanent. Tehran is repairing or\nreacquiring radar systems, air defence positions, and anti-ship\nmissiles.<\/p>\n
American bombs may be able to destroy key Iranian positions at\nspecific points. However, Iran\u2019s knowledge and military technology\nindustrial base remain intact.<\/p>\n
Rebuilding can be delayed, but not prevented. The United States\ncontinues to face the same choice: allow Tehran to restore its\ncapabilities or strike again and destroy them?<\/p>\n
In April, Middle East expert Mona Yacoubian from the Center for\nStrategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington warned of the\nconsequences. Such developments, she said, could lead to a \u201cprotracted\nlow-intensity conflict interspersed with more intensive\ninterventions.\u201d<\/p>\n
A warning of war<\/p>\n
The \u201cmowing the grass\u201d strategy also has its limits. One reason is\nthat the strategy was not designed from the start to face war against a\nnation-state. Israel developed this strategy to deal with non-state\nactors such as the terrorist group Hamas.<\/p>\n
Against an opponent with the character of a state and stronger\ncapabilities, Yacunbian says, \u201cmowing the grass\u201d could turn into an\n\u201cobsolete military strategy.\u201d This is most evident in the Strait of\nHormuz.<\/p>\n
The United States must ensure the strait remains open. Iran,\nconversely, only needs to make people believe that traversing it remains\ndangerous. Even an adversary that is militarily much weaker can still\nimpose a heavy cost on Washington.<\/p>\n
The United States also faces another problem: Washington can\ndetermine the intensity of its own attacks, but it cannot determine how\nTehran will retaliate. President Trump has repeatedly warned Tehran in\nharsh language not to launch military counterattacks.<\/p>\n
However, despite the warnings, the regime in Tehran immediately\nlaunched missiles at US facilities in the region. Jordan alone reported\n13 ballistic missiles entering its airspace, ten of which were\nintercepted.<\/p>\n
The nuclear issue<\/p>\n
Middle East expert Yacoubian warned of much greater risks from\nrepeated American attacks. Tehran may conclude that the only way to\nbuild a permanent deterrent is \u201cby pursuing nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n
As a result, the United States and Israel may instead accelerate the\nvery development they seek to control through attacks on Iran.<\/p>\n
From Washington\u2019s perspective, the options available to Trump are not\nmuch better. If the president allows Iran to rebuild its military\ncapabilities around the Strait of Hormuz, he risks facing new attacks on\nships and disruptions to one of the world\u2019s most important energy\nroutes.<\/p>\n
The impact on the global economy is well known. Despite ongoing\nturmoil and repeated negotiations, political agreements between\nWashington and Tehran have so far failed due to seemingly irreconcilable\ndifferences.<\/p>\n
US-Iran \u201cendless war\u201d?<\/p>\n
However, the \u201cmowing the grass\u201d strategy has domestic political\nappeal for Donald Trump, amidst various uncertainties in foreign policy.\nThe US President can execute it without occupation, nation-building, or\na massive deployment of American ground troops.<\/p>\n
At the same time, this strategy allows Trump to maintain distance\nfrom what he calls \u201cforever wars\u201d\u2014the endless wars he has repeatedly\naccused his predecessors in the White House of conducting.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, the way considered a method to avoid endless war could\ninstead turn into that very endless war. Yacoubian refers to \u201cmowing the\ngrass\u201d as a \u201cSisyphus strategy: endless erosion.\u201d<\/p>\n
As long as Washington is unwilling to at some point accept the\nreality that Iran is rebuilding its military capabilities, every\nsuccessful strike will merely create a reason for the next one.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/trumps-strategy-in-iran-a-path-towards-protracted-war-1788490856", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }