When President Donald Trump warned that Iran would \u201csoon\u201d possess\nmissiles capable of reaching the American mainland, his statement\nimmediately drew scrutiny in Washington. However, according to three\nsources familiar with US intelligence assessments, the claim is not\nsupported by the latest intelligence evaluations and is considered\nexaggerated.<\/p>\n
This prompted questions about some of Trump\u2019s arguments for\npotentially attacking the Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n
In his state of the union address to Congress on Tuesday, 24 February\n2026, Trump began building a case to the American public for why\nWashington could launch an attack on Iran. He stated that Tehran was\n\u201cworking on missiles that will soon reach\u201d the United States.<\/p>\n
However, two sources cited no change to the unclassified 2025\nassessment by the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA). That report\nstated Iran would likely require time until 2035 to develop a\n\u201cmilitarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile\u201d (ICBM) from the\nspace-launch vehicles (SLVs) it already possesses.<\/p>\n
One source stated that even if China or North Korea, which work\nclosely with Iran, provided technological assistance, Iran would likely\nstill require up to eight years at minimum to produce \u201csomething that is\ntruly equivalent to an ICBM and operational.\u201d<\/p>\n
All three sources spoke anonymously because they were discussing\nsensitive intelligence information. They stated they were unaware of any\nUS intelligence assessment indicating Iran was developing missiles that\nwould soon be capable of reaching the American mainland. However, they\ndid not rule out the possibility of new intelligence reports they were\nnot aware of.<\/p>\n
A similar report was first published by The New York Times, which\nstated that US intelligence agencies believed Iran would likely need\nyears before possessing missiles capable of striking the United\nStates.<\/p>\n
The White House and Rubio\u2019s Statement<\/p>\n
In response to these doubts, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly\ndefended the president\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n
\u201cPresident Trump is absolutely correct in highlighting the serious\nconcerns posed by Iran, a country that chants \u2018death to America,\u2019 which\npossesses intercontinental ballistic missiles,\u201d she said, according to\nReuters on Friday, 27 February 2026.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s statement emerged as US and Iranian representatives were\nnegotiating regarding Tehran\u2019s nuclear programme. Thus far, no signs of\na breakthrough have appeared that could prevent a possible US attack,\namid Washington\u2019s massive military deployment in the region.<\/p>\n
Trump himself had not yet provided much public explanation for the\nreasons that could lead the US to take its most aggressive action\nagainst Iran since the 1979 Revolution.<\/p>\n
In his address, he alluded to Tehran\u2019s support for militant groups,\npersecution of demonstrators, and Iran\u2019s missile and nuclear programmes\nas threats to the region and the United States.<\/p>\n
Without providing evidence, Trump also stated that Tehran had begun\nrebuilding its nuclear programme, which he claimed had been\n\u201cobliterated\u201d by US air strikes in June against three major uranium\nenrichment facilities.<\/p>\n
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke more cautiously on Wednesday.\nHe said Iran was \u201con a path towards the capability to one day develop a\nweapon that could reach the American mainland.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tehran\u2019s Denial<\/p>\n
Iran denied it was pursuing nuclear weapons. Tehran stated that\nuranium enrichment, a process that can produce fuel for nuclear power\nplants or nuclear warheads depending on the level of enrichment, was\nconducted solely for civilian purposes.<\/p>\n
In an interview with India Today TV released on Wednesday, Iranian\nForeign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that his country was expanding\nits long-range missile capabilities.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are not developing long-range missiles. We deliberately limit\ntheir range to below 2,000 kilometres,\u201d he said. \u201cWe do not wish this to\nbecome a global threat. We only possess them for self-defence. Our\nmissiles provide a deterrent.\u201d<\/p>\n
IAEA Assessment and Technical Capability<\/p>\n
The US intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy\nAgency (IAEA) have previously stated that Iran halted its nuclear\nweapons development programme in 2003.<\/p>\n
However, according to the IAEA, Tehran has in recent years continued\nenriching uranium, including approaching levels that could be used for\nweapons.<\/p>\n
Trump also threatened to attack Iran if the country executed people\narrested during anti-government protests in January or failed to reach a\nnuclear agreement in negotiations with the US.<\/p>\n
Iran is known to possess the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the\nMiddle East, with the capability to reach Israel, US bases in the\nregion, and parts of Europe.<\/p>\n
The country is also developing space-launch vehicles that have placed\nsatellites into orbit, technology which according to experts could be\nmodified into ICBMs capable of carrying nuclear warheads.<\/p>\n
The difference is that SLVs are used to launch satellites into orbit,\nwhilst ICBMs must possess a re-entry vehicle (RV) capable of protecting\nthe warhead from extreme temperatures and pressure as it re-enters\nEarth\u2019s atmosphere.<\/p>\n
David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector and president of the\nthink tank Institute for Science and International Security, assessed\nthat Iran remains far from possessing such capability.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran is capable of launching extremely long-range missiles thanks to\nits space launch programme,\u201d Albright said. \u201cHowever, considerable\neffort is required to develop an adequate re-entry vehicle.\u201d<\/p>\n
Albright and several other experts also noted that Israeli air\nstrikes last year and in 2024 have severely damaged major facilities\nwhere Tehran produces liquid and solid-fuelled ballistic missiles.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/trump-claims-iranian-missiles-will-soon-reach-us-but-us-intelligence-disagrees-1772204503", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }