Ending the war without an agreement with Iran could bring major\nstrategic consequences for the Middle East region, particularly for Gulf\ncountries worried that Tehran might emerge from the conflict in a\nstronger position.<\/p>\n
These concerns have arisen after US President Donald Trump stated\nthat Washington would end the war \u201cquite quickly\u201d, even opening the\npossibility of doing so without a formal agreement.<\/p>\n
If the war is halted without an agreement, Iran is seen as able to\nmaintain its grip on Middle Eastern energy supplies, while Arab Gulf oil\nand gas producers must face the impacts of a conflict they neither\nstarted nor shaped.<\/p>\n
Rather than weakening the Iranian government, such a situation could\ninstead make it stronger after surviving US and Israeli attacks for\nweeks, launching strikes on Arab Gulf states, and shaking the global\nenergy market by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
In an interview with Reuters before his national address on Wednesday\n(1\/4\/2026), Trump said the US would end the war with Iran \u201cquite\nquickly\u201d, and had previously signalled that the conflict could be\nstopped even without an agreement.<\/p>\n
Ending the war without clear guarantees regarding post-conflict\nconditions is viewed as a significant risk for Gulf countries. This\ncould leave the region to bear the consequences of a war that ultimately\nbenefits Iran.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe problem is stopping the war without real results,\u201d said Mohammed\nBaharoon, director of the B\u2019huth Research Center in Dubai. \u201cHe [Trump]\nmight stop the war, but that doesn\u2019t mean Iran will.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to Baharoon, as long as US forces remain at bases in the\nGulf region, Iran will continue to threaten that area. This is the core\nof the Gulf states\u2019 concerns. Iran could exit the war undefeated and\nwith greater influence, while the Gulf states bear the economic and\nstrategic costs of an unresolved conflict.<\/p>\n
Baharoon added that the weakening of freedom of navigation in the\nregion would be a major concern. Iran, he said, could begin playing the\nterritorial waters card and setting rules in the Strait of Hormuz, a\nvital route for global energy supplies.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis goes beyond Hormuz,\u201d he said. \u201cIran has placed its hand on a\nglobal economic pressure point.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tehran\u2019s ability to disrupt energy flows, he continued, sends a clear\nmessage that anyone considering future attacks on Iran must think\ntwice.<\/p>\n
This logic explains why Gulf countries have avoided direct\ninvolvement in the war. Officials in the region say their main concern\nis preventing the conflict, which began as a US-Israeli campaign against\nIran, from turning into a more dangerous confrontation between Sunni and\nShia Muslims that could reshape the Middle East for decades.<\/p>\n
Strategic Miscalculation<\/p>\n
The risk of escalation is also exacerbated by what political analysts\ncall a fundamental miscalculation by the US regarding how Iran would\nrespond to attacks on its leadership.<\/p>\n
The assassination of Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the start\nof the conflict, intended as a decisive blow, instead changed the rules\nof the game. He was replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, and the\naction meant to \u201cdecapitate\u201d the system turned into a provocation\nrequiring resistance and retaliation.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn one step, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have turned a geopolitical\nconflict into a religious and civilisational one,\u201d said Middle East\nexpert Fawaz Gerges, quoted by Reuters. \u201cThey have elevated Khamenei\nfrom a contested leader to a martyr.\u201d<\/p>\n
Regional analysts say the killing of Ali Khamenei has instead given\ngreater legitimacy to the hardline instincts of Iran\u2019s leadership,\nuniting the clerical elite and the Revolutionary Guard in a narrative of\nexistential resistance, where surrender is unthinkable and survival\nbecomes a sacred value.<\/p>\n
They argue that the assumption that removing the top leader would\nfracture the system ignores Iran\u2019s layered institutions, parallel power\nstructures, and long track record of resilience, from the eight-year war\nwith Iraq to decades of US sanctions.<\/p>\n
As a result, analysts say, it is not surrender but radicalisation.\nIran has become angrier and more defiant, while the region must bear the\nconsequences.<\/p>\n
\u201cKhamenei was an Ayatollah; this is not something you do, especially\na foreign power killing an Ayatollah,\u201d said Alex Vatanka. \u201cBut this is\nTrump\u2026 a man without brakes, and for Shia clerical institutions\u2026 he has\nviolated every norm and protocol.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s \u201cEnergy\u201d Weapon<\/p>\n
US and Israeli decision-makers are not entirely blind to Iran\u2019s\nideological strength but appear to have underestimated its resilience,\nsaid terrorism expert Magnus Ranstorp.<\/p>\n
He said the initial assumption was air dominance, with destroying\nmissile launchers, command centres, and senior figures providing freedom\nof movement and strategic constraints. However, Iran\u2019s system has\ninstead strengthened, not fractured, supported by parallel institutions\ndesigned to survive under pressure.<\/p>\n
Washington is also seen as having miscalculated Iran\u2019s asymmetric\nretaliation capacity. Tehran does not need to win the air war but only\nto impose costs. For decades, Iran has invested in identifying pressure\npoints, with energy assets and the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of its\nstrategy.<\/p>\n
By attacking energy infrastructure and threatening the Strait of\nHormuz, Iran drives up oil prices, triggers global inflation, and shifts\nthe pressure to the US and its allies. The goal is not military victory\non the battlefield but creating economic fatigue.<\/p>\n
Prematurely ending the war without security guarantees would leave\nGulf countries vulnerable, with potential for retaliation<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/trump-caught-in-the-iran-war-advancing-hits-retreating-hits-1775098358", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }