Transition to normalcy: Aceh, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq?<\/p>\n
Dmitri Kosyrev, Political Columnist, RIA Novosti, Moscow<\/p>\n
Victory is easy. Post-war reconstruction is hard. These are
\nthe lesson learned by the Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq. The
\nsame lesson is, probably, in store for the Russians in Chechnya.
\nWill the Indonesians contribute to that experience in Nanggroe
\nAceh Darussalam -- remains to be seen.<\/p>\n
One may say that it is definitely wrong to compare Iraq,
\nAfghanistan, Chechnya and Aceh. First two cases are about,
\nplainly speaking, a foreign invasion, whatever are the reasons.
\nThe latter two cases are about the domestic insurgences that have
\nto be put down. To some people, Iraq and Afghanistan are a bad
\nwar, while Chechnya and Aceh are the good wars.<\/p>\n
It may be right or wrong -- but tell it to the soldiers. From
\na purely military point of view, devoid of \"just and unjust\"
\nthinking, in each of the mentioned cases the situation is
\nsimilar. The regular troops have defeated the regular enemy, and
\nthe enemy that has survived has become irregular -- turned to
\ndiversions, hit-and-run operations. A soldier, be it Russian or
\nIndonesian, knows very well that in such a case he is becoming a
\nhostage to the efforts of the civilians who now have to
\ncomplement military effort with the peacemaking programs. And
\nthis is exactly where the question of a just or unjust war will
\nbecome paramount.<\/p>\n
There is no doubt that the recent decision of the Indonesian
\ngovernment to extend the emergency in Aceh for six months is
\nreasonable and inevitable. The problem is, six months or even six
\nyears may not be enough for this. The key here is the economy,
\nand the changes in the economy are usually very slow.<\/p>\n
The experience in Chechnya shows that a relatively long rule
\nby the criminals means a complete transformation of the
\nlifestyles of the populace. Before the recent military operation
\nthe only sources of income of the Chechens, besides raising small
\ncrops, were kidnappings for ransom, kidnappings of slaves from
\nthe neighboring Russian villages, the financial returns from the
\ncrimes committed in other parts of Russia, and, finally, illicit
\noil wells. Which means that the task of Russia is to re-create
\nthe Chechen economy literally from nothing, and only then the
\nreal victory will come.<\/p>\n
The criminal money inflow has been drastically reduced in
\ntodays Chechnya. But the small oil wells still exist, and the
\npeople around Kadyrov -- the newly-elected president of Chechnya
\n-- freely admit that it is not easy to deprive the populace from
\noperating these wells literally in their backyards. They have to
\nmake some living, after all. But this business has to be stopped,
\nat least because such oil extraction kills the soil for many
\nmiles around.<\/p>\n
(It is a little-known fact, but the Russian army, now pulling
\nout the regular troops from Chechnya, has sent there the experts
\nfrom the ecological directorate of the Armed Forces, normally
\nresponsible for the mop-up of the air bases with their regular
\nfuel spills. The Russian eco-soldiers are now removing the whole
\nsquare miles of the Chechnya soil grimed by the war and illicit
\noil wells, and has already planted there five thousand tree
\nsaplings.)<\/p>\n
The same problem is evident in the post-war Afghanistan.
\nPeople have to make living there -- and the illicit drug
\nbusiness, notably the poppy-raising, seems to be the favorite, if
\nnot the only, occupation of many peasants. Neither the Americans
\nnor the UN (or the Karzai government) can do anything quick to
\nchange this situation. It means that any kind of old or new
\nterrorists may resurface again there, making the drug economy
\ntheir financial base.<\/p>\n
All the terrorists, or shall we say -- freedom fighters,
\ndefinitely live off the land where they are based. Some levy
\ntaxes on the local economy, some, like in Chechnya, make the
\nwhole economy criminal through and through. Others, like in
\nAceh, still have not altered the economic landscape to that
\nextent.<\/p>\n
Finally, some people -- like in Iraq -- have never even been
\nterrorists, they were just drawing their salaries as Saddam's
\nsoldiers. And the final American victory in Iraq will depend on
\nthe American ability to win the hearts of the Iraqis who then are
\nsupposed not to support the anti-American resistance in any
\nmaterial way. (And this is very unlikely, especially after the
\nU.S. Congress' decision not to fund the education and medical
\nservices in the country, thus saving less than US$2 billion).<\/p>\n
It would be idealistic to dream about winning the hearts and
\nminds of the terrorists themselves, be it in Chechnya, or Aceh.
\nLikewise, if you are American, you cannot expect to make friends
\nwith the Talibs in Afghanistan or the military in Iraq.<\/p>\n
Yes, there is a lot to be said about who was right or who was
\nwrong in all these wars or domestic conflicts mentioned. But in
\nthe meantime you can win the minds of the \"civilians\" -- the
\nordinary local people, who have a perfect right to live their
\nlives peacefully. Transition to normalcy is always the start of
\nthe real victory in a war, not just in a battle.<\/p>",
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