Time for Golkar to be in opposition<\/p>\n
By Jusuf Wanandi<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Uncertainties about a new government have
\nemerged in the aftermath of a successful election. This is due to
\nproblems relating to the complicated election rules on one hand
\nand the high expectation from people that the elections will
\nfinally bring about reforms and change on the other. That means,
\nthe establishment of a new reform-oriented government. However,
\nthis process is being complicated by the amount of politicking
\nthat is taking place.<\/p>\n
There are two problems with the rules of the elections that
\nskewed the results against the reformist opposition parties.
\nFirst is the problem that the result of the voting does not
\ntranslate into the same proportion of seats in the parliament.<\/p>\n
The outer islands, where Golkar remains strong, have
\nproportionally more seats than Java, although the latter has more
\nvotes. Unofficial tallies based on 80 percent of the votes and
\nabout 85 percent of the seats allocated suggest that a coalition
\nof Golkar, PPP and other Muslim parties might get 185 seats
\n(Golkar 124, PPP 51, and other Muslim parties 10). A coalition of
\nthe reformist parties might get 202 seats, Indonesian Democratic
\nParty (PDI Perjuangan) 149, National Awakening Party (PKB) 47 and
\nNational Mandate Party (PAN) 31. The ratio of seats is 92:100,
\nalthough in terms of votes it is 69:100.<\/p>\n
Second is the problem that the election result for the 462
\nmembers of parliament is only 69 percent of the electoral
\ncollege, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which will
\nelect the president and the vice president. The remaining 238
\nmembers consist of 38 representatives of the Armed Forces, 135
\nelected representatives of provincial councils and 65
\nrepresentatives of social and professional groups. Golkar is
\nlikely to have more regional representatives in the MPR from
\namong the 110 representatives from the outer islands compared to
\nthat of the opposition parties which are mainly based on Java and
\nwill have 25 representatives.<\/p>\n
The numbers point to the possibility of a deadlock in the
\nlegislature as well as in the MPR. Thus, the Armed Forces with
\nits 38 members and their additional regional representatives will
\nhave a pivotal position that can tip the balance.<\/p>\n
There are high expectations on the part of students,
\nintellectuals, the mass media, the majority of the middle class
\nand other reformist groups in the society that Megawati, Gus Dur,
\nand Amien Rais will form a coalition. In view of the absolute
\nnumber of votes, it is expected that Megawati will come out as
\nthe winner. The campaign and the elections were a demonstration
\nof Indonesians' power. People came out in the millions during the
\nPDI Perjuangan campaigns to support Megawati but not for her
\nparty per se. Megawati has become the symbol of reform and
\nchange. She is seen as the leader of a new Indonesia.<\/p>\n
Megawati's overwhelming support came from the people that have
\norganized themselves and was not the result of the successful
\norganization by her party. She wins because of the people's
\npower. Thus, if she will not be elected president although she
\nreceived almost 40 percent of the votes, it will be a real let
\ndown for them. Students, intellectuals, the media and the middle
\nclass will also be angry. They will feel cheated after having
\nsuch high expectations to establish a legitimate government. This
\nwill definitely become a source of profound instability for the
\nfuture. This is particularly true if Habibie uses all his means
\nto get re-elected because in the eyes of the public, he and his
\ngovernment are seen as the embodiment of suppression, corruption
\nand excesses of the Soeharto regime.<\/p>\n
A new, legitimate government can only be formed on the basis
\nof a coalition of the reformist parties. The alternative
\ncoalition of Golkar, United Development Party (PPP) and other
\nMuslim parties will not be seen as a reformist government. In
\nfact, on their own they may not have the majority that is
\nnecessary to form a government. They might try to woe Amien Rais
\nor even Gus Dur to join them on the basis of Muslim solidarity.
\nHowever, this may not work. They could try to use money politics
\nto split the members of PAN and PKB. Golkar might even try to
\nform a grand coalition between PDI Perjuangan and Golkar, minus
\nHabibie. In view of Megawati's conservative views, this may not
\nbe impossible and some in Golkar have openly suggested this
\noption.<\/p>\n
The coming few weeks will be a period of horse-trading and
\npositioning to enhance bargaining positions. It can be an
\nengaging period, which the public will not be used to after being
\nunder Soeharto's authoritarian rule. They will be frustrated and
\nthere will be a widespread sense of uncertainty and insecurity
\nabout the future state of the nation. Such sense of deep
\nuncertainty will be there until the completion of the MPR
\nsession. The students may try to exert some influence while the
\nArmed Forces will only engage itself during the MPR session.<\/p>\n
What then will lead to the establishment of a reformist
\ncoalition? A major factor is the pressure by public opinion on
\nthe three leaders, Megawati, Gus Dur and Amien Rais to overcome
\ntheir personal ambitions and to create a genuine partnership that
\nwill help them form an effective government. Each must be aware
\nthat on its own, none can establish a government. Having the
\nlargest number of votes and seats, Megawati has to take the
\ninitiative and engage both Gus Dur and Amien Rais in a shared
\npartnership in which all the important decisions will be made
\ncollectively. This should begin with the crafting of a common
\nplatform and an economic plan for recovery and development,
\nfollowed by the formation of a cabinet.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur has been the champion of democracy, reforms, and the
\ncreation of a harmonious blend of Islam and nationalism, and has
\nthe support of the minorities. He has to come out unambiguously
\nin support of Megawati and be prepared to defend her against all
\nkinds of accusations, especially from part of the Muslim right
\nwing. It is absurd that because she is a woman she cannot become
\npresident when this has been possible in other Islamic-oriented
\ncountries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur has stood for these democratic principles during the
\nlast three decades. It has made him such a credible leader in the
\neyes of the nation. It can be expected that he will continue to
\nhold these principles and will come to the defense of Megawati,
\nespecially if she is denied from what she has earned, including
\nby some of his supporters in Nahdlatul Ulama, the nation's
\nbiggest Muslim organization.<\/p>\n
Amien Rais has already stated that he would join a coalition
\nwith Megawati if reformist policies were accepted as the basis
\nfor the coalition.<\/p>\n
These include the implementation of the law on
\ndecentralization, examining the lacunas in the Constitution and
\nto improve upon them, a just solution of the East Timor problem,
\nthe political role of the Armed Forces and on the Soeharto
\nproblem. They can work out the modalities for dealing with each
\nof these issues and can work out a time frame for implementing
\nthem, and this may involve compromises on the part of all three.<\/p>\n
The two other leaders should accept Amien Rais as a full
\npartner in establishing and running the government. Some have
\nconsidered Amien Rais as being too opportunistic in his political
\nviews. Therefore, he needs to show that he really is a reformist
\nleader and that he will only join in a reformist coalition.<\/p>\n
Despite the apparent difficulties in forming this coalition,
\nin the end it will happen because the survival of the nation is
\nat stake. Public opinion will pressure them to cooperate since
\nonly they are being trusted to lead the nation.<\/p>\n
As noted Muslim scholar Nurcholish Madjid has stated, the
\nthree reformist parties should be given the chance to establish a
\nnew government. Golkar and PPP should become the opposition,
\nwhich is equally important in a democracy. They have been given
\nthe chance earlier but have not lived up to expectations.<\/p>\n
The writer is chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Centre
\nfor Strategic and International Studies.<\/p>",
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