The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics\n(BMKG) has forecast potential extreme weather in several parts of\nIndonesia over the coming week as three tropical cyclone seeds in the\nsouthern region become active. The period covered is 6-12 March 2026. In\nits weekly weather outlook released on Thursday 5 March, it recorded\nheavy rainfall in several areas during 2-4 March 2026, including Central\nJava with rainfall reaching 77.2 mm per day, East Java 72.5 mm, West\nSumatra 67.5 mm, East Nusa Tenggara 63.2 mm, Jambi 57.5 mm, and West\nJava 53.1 mm.<\/p>\n
BMKG explained that the high rainfall intensity results from\ninteractions of multiple atmospheric dynamics, including the existence\nof three tropical cyclone seeds in the south of Indonesia (90S, 93S,\n92P), the meeting of monsoon winds from the north with cross-flow from\nthe Indian Ocean in the south, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in its\nphase 5 (Maritime Continent), and the active Equatorial Rossby and\nKelvin waves.<\/p>\n
BMKG predicts that in the coming week atmospheric dynamics from\nglobal to local scales will continue to influence Indonesia\u2019s weather.\nThe Asian monsoon is expected to strengthen, while the cold surge\nphenomenon is also forecast to be significant in the coming days.<\/p>\n
Seed 90S is forecast to be in the southwestern Indian Ocean south of\nEast Java with maximum wind speed 35 knots and minimum central pressure\n998 hPa, moving eastward. In the next 48-72 hours, this system is\nexpected to weaken but still trigger the formation of a low-level jet in\nthe southern Indian Ocean south of East Java to south-west Nusa Tenggara\nand create convergence and confluent zones from the southern coast of\nBanten to south NTB.<\/p>\n
Seed 93S is forecast to be in the waters off western Australia with\nmax wind 25 knots and pressure 995 hPa moving west to south-west. In two\nto three days, the intensity is predicted to be moderate.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, tropical cyclone seed 92P is forecast to be in the Gulf of\nCarpentaria with wind max 15 knots and pressure 1004 hPa, moving west to\nwest-south-west and expected to weaken within 48-72 hours. This system\ntriggers a low-level jet in the Gulf of Carpentaria as well as a\nconvergence zone from the Timor Sea to the southern Arafura Sea.<\/p>\n
Besides tropical cyclones, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is\npredicted to remain in phase 5 or Maritime Continent in the coming week.\nThis condition could strengthen cloud formation in eastern\nIndonesia.<\/p>\n
Rain potential also reinforced by Kelvin waves in Aceh, North\nSumatra, southern Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, North Maluku and parts of\nPapua north; while Equatorial Rossby waves active in southern West Nusa\nTenggara, southern East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and almost all Papua.<\/p>\n
Between 6-8 March 2026, weather generally light to moderate rain; but\nthere is potential for moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas\nincluding North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra,\nBengkulu, Lampung, Bali, most of Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and\nPapua.<\/p>\n
BMKG also issued an early warning category alert for potential heavy\nto very heavy rain in Bangka Belitung Islands, Banten, Jakarta, West\nJava, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, and\nEast Nusa Tenggara. Wind gusts expected in West Java, Central Java, DI\nYogyakarta, East Java, Bali, NTB, NTT, Maluku, and South Papua.<\/p>\n
Entering 9-12 March 2026, light to moderate rain still possible; but\nmoderate to heavy rainfall expected in Aceh, North Sumatra, West\nSumatra, Riau Islands, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, Bengkulu,\nLampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, Bali,\nWest Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, several parts of Kalimantan,\nSulawesi, Maluku and Papua.<\/p>\n
During this period, BMKG sets an alert status for heavy to very heavy\nrain in East Java, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Sulawesi. Winds gusts\nexpected in Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, NTB, NTT,\nMaluku, and South Papua.<\/p>\n
BMKG urges the public and stakeholders to heighten vigilance against\nextreme weather that can trigger hydrometeorological disasters such as\nfloods, landslides and strong winds. The dynamic weather should be\nconsidered in planning activities, especially road, sea, air travel and\noutdoor activities.<\/p>\n
People are reminded to regularly monitor forecasts via official BMKG\nchannels, including the official website, the InfoBMKG app, and the\nagency\u2019s social media.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/three-tropical-cyclone-seeds-active-bmkg-warns-of-potential-extreme-weather-over-the-coming-week-1772784225", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }