Less than two years after Donald Trump was re-elected as President of\nthe United States, the global economy is far from stable. Trump began\nhis administration with several highly controversial policies, starting\nwith the implementation of reciprocal tariffs imposed on many US trading\npartners, under the pretext of protecting domestic industries and\nworkers.<\/p>\n
This policy significantly shook global trade in early April 2025.\nConsequently, goods entering the US domestic market became more\nexpensive, forcing supply chains to be restructured, while affected\nnations, particularly China, prepared retaliatory measures.<\/p>\n
Uncertainty did not stop at tariff issues. The war between the\nUS-Israel alliance and Iran, which broke out late last February, has\nopened much larger problems as it significantly disrupts energy supplies\nand global trade routes.<\/p>\n
From these two factors alone, much suffering is already being felt in\nmany countries across the globe. Global inflationary pressures have\nforced many central banks to begin tightening their monetary policies,\nwhich naturally puts economic growth at risk.<\/p>\n
Given the current conditions, CNBC Indonesia has summarised the signs\nindicating that the global economy is currently in a precarious\nstate.<\/p>\n
When the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on 2lar 28\nFebruary 2026, the war was expected to be short-lived. The US arrived\nwith the world\u2019s greatest military power, launching airstrikes on\nvarious strategic targets, ranging from nuclear facilities and missile\nstorage sites to air defence systems and Iranian military command\ncentres.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, even died on the first\nday of the war. Washington and Tel Aviv may have hoped such an attack\nwould force Tehran to surrender immediately. However, that hope did not\nmaterialise.<\/p>\n
Seven months have passed, and Iran has not surrendered. Tehran is\nalso unwilling to accept peace based on the terms set by Washington.\nWashington can continue to drop bombs on Iranian territory, but Tehran\nhas shown that war can be retaliated against by expanding the\nbattlefield and attacking critical US interests throughout the\nregion.<\/p>\n
The war, originally expected to conclude within weeks, has dragged on\nfor months. The fighting is no longer confined to Iranian airspace but\nhas spread to military bases, energy facilities, and Middle Eastern\ntrade routes. It is at this point that the Iran war has begun to become\na global issue.<\/p>\n
The Middle East map is filled with narrow passages that determine the\nlife or death of global energy trade. One of the most vital is the\nStrait of Hormuz. This strait separates Iran from Oman and connects the\nPersian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, the distance\nbetween the two landmasses is only about 33 kilometres.<\/p>\n
However, these narrow waters are traversed by approximately one-fifth\nof the world\u2019s oil and gas supply. Before the war, oil flow through the\nStrait of Hormuz reached about 21.6 million barrels per day in the\nfourth quarter of 2025. After the conflict escalated, the volume\nplummeted to just 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of\n2026.<\/p>\n
Saudi Arabia had long prepared an alternative route. Oil from the\neastern region can be diverted through the East-West Pipeline to the\nPort of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. This 1,200-kilometre route was built\nso that Saudi Arabia would not be entirely dependent on Hormuz. Its\nnormal capacity reaches 5 million barrels per day and can be increased\nto approximately 7 million barrels.<\/p>\n
When Hormuz becomes difficult to navigate, the East-West Pipeline\nserves as a lifeline. However, even this lifeline has become a target.\nDrone attacks have damaged several pumping stations, forcing Saudi\nArabia to suspend parts of the pipeline\u2019s operations. Repairs are\nexpected to take six to eight weeks.<\/p>\n
The problem does not end there. Oil that successfully reaches Yanbu\nmust still pass through the Red Sea. Ships heading to Asia must sail\nthrough the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway separating Yemen\nfrom Djibouti and Eritrea. There, the Houthi group awaits.<\/p>\n
The armed group, allied with Iran, has expanded its influence along\nthe Yemeni coast and threatens Saudi Arabian vessels. They have also\ntaken positions on Perim Island, located at the mouth of Bab el-Mandeb.\nThree Middle Eastern oil routes are now disrupted simultaneously: Hormuz\nis difficult to traverse, the East-West Pipeline is damaged, and Bab\nel-Mandeb is becoming increasingly dangerous. If one door closes, supply\ncan usually be diverted through another; this time, almost all doors are\nproblematic.<\/p>\n
The oil market did not take long to react. Every missile flying in\nthe Middle East, every ship attacked in Hormuz, and the damage to Saudi\npipelines immediately adds to supply concerns.<\/p>\n
In trading on Tuesday (15\/9\/2026), oil prices continued to rise.\nBrent contracts for November delivery rose by almost 3% to close at\nUS$108.75 per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI oil strengthened by more than 4% to\nUS$105.83 per barrel.<\/p>\n
Figures above US$100 are significant not just for oil traders in\nLondon or New York. Their movement affects the daily lives of billions\nof people. Oil powers the ships that carry goods across continents, the\nplanes that transport passengers, the trucks that deliver food, and the\nmachinery that operates in factories.<\/p>\n
Fuel is also a component of the production costs for fertilisers,\nplastics, chemicals, textiles, and various everyday goods. When oil\nprices rise, these costs follow. Companies may absorb them temporarily,\nbut\u2026<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/the-world-is-in-trouble-8-warning-signs-have-already-emerged-1789523639", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }