Thai third quarter GDP up by 7.7 percent<\/p>\n
BANGKOK (Reuters): The Thai economy grew at its fastest rate
\nfor four years in the third quarter, exceeding market
\nexpectations, a government think tank said on Monday.<\/p>\n
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)
\nsaid in a statement that Thai gross domestic product (GDP)
\nexpanded by 7.7 percent in the July-September period, up from a
\nrevised 3.3 percent growth in the second quarter.<\/p>\n
The last time the Thai economy grew as fast was in the third
\nquarter of 1995 when GDP expanded 9.7 percent year-on-year.<\/p>\n
The NESDB had previously estimated the economy grew by about
\n3.5 percent in the second quarter.<\/p>\n
"These are good figures which should send positive signals to
\nthe market," said Nuchjarin Kasemsukworarat, economist at SCB
\nSecurities Co.<\/p>\n
Nuchjarin told Reuters the strong year-on-year growth for the
\nquarter was mainly caused by a sharp contraction of GDP in the
\nthird quarter of last year.<\/p>\n
In the third quarter last year, GDP plunged by 13.6 percent
\nfrom a year earlier, the most severe quarterly contraction
\nexperienced in 1998.<\/p>\n
"You would see a large growth rate for the Q3 GDP because the
\nlast year's base was very small, the largest decline among four
\nquarters," she said.<\/p>\n
Kenneth Ng, head of research at ING Baring Securities in
\nBangkok, said the data came in above expectations:<\/p>\n
"I would say it was mainly led by the sharp rise in the
\nmanufacturing production index and a rise in exports."<\/p>\n
"This should not come as a surprise to anyone but it is
\ncertainly higher than what we had expected. Our house view was at
\n6.5 percent for the third quarter and seven percent for the
\nfourth quarter," he added.<\/p>\n
In the July-September quarter, the manufacturing sector grew
\n17.4 percent year-on-year, while the agricultural sector
\ncontracted 0.2 percent against the same period a year ago, the
\nNESDB data showed.<\/p>\n
"For 1999, we expect GDP to grow between four and five
\npercent. This should help improve market sentiment," Ng said.<\/p>\n
The NESDB forecast Thailand would show GDP growth of about
\nfour percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 1999. This
\nwould bring overall economic growth for the year to about 4.1
\npercent, it said.<\/p>\n
Growth for 2000 was estimated at 4.4 percent year-on-year.<\/p>\n
The NESDB said it had revised its estimate for the contraction
\nof the economy in 1998 to a GDP decline of 10.4 percent year-on-
\nyear. It had previously put the decline at around 10.0 percent.<\/p>\n
That decline, which followed the collapse of the Thai baht
\ncurrency in July 1997, has been reversed sharply this year.<\/p>\n
In the first nine months of 1999, the economy grew about 4.0
\npercent against the same period in 1998, the NESDB said.<\/p>\n
Maris Tarab, head of research at KGI Securities One Plc, said
\nhis view on 1999 GDP growth was in line with the NESDB's at 4.1
\npercent.<\/p>\n
Thai third quarter growth figure was towards the upper end of
\nexpectations, he said.<\/p>\n
"Any figure within the market expectations range of between
\nover five percent and 7.5 percent is OK," he said.<\/p>",
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