Terrorism exists and may worsen next year: Analysts<\/p>\n
Debbie A. Lubis, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
The country will have to deal with numerous social, political and
\neconomic problems in 2003 if the government, politicians and
\nsecurity authorities fail to provide legal certainty and law
\nenforcement in the country, according to the National Institute
\nof Sciences (LIPI).<\/p>\n
Reflecting on the problems of 2002, LIPI political analysts
\nand researchers said that the terrorist attacks that had
\ntriggered security disturbances over the last three years were
\nlikely to remain a serious threat in 2003 due to the weakening
\nreligious tolerance and hardships caused by the prolonged crisis.<\/p>\n
Ikrar Nusa Bakti, head of LIPI's political research
\ndepartment, said that fragmentation of power, wealth, resources,
\nand beliefs would determine the country's life next year since it
\nwas the final stage of the preparation for the 2004 elections.<\/p>\n
\"Such fragmentation will give rise to the emergence of extreme
\ngroups using terror to achieve their goals,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Ikrar said that terrorist acts which previously were conducted
\nrandomly and without a clear message would find a clearer pattern
\nnext year because the perpetrators had set agenda to achieve
\ntheir goals.<\/p>\n
\"Terror attacks may continue with more focused targets and
\nunderstandable messages. For example, there will be suicide
\nbombings or groups claiming responsibility for terrorist acts
\nincluding an open message from the perpetrator -- something that
\nhas never happened before,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Ikrar said that terrorism could be quashed if the government,
\nthe public and security authorities cooperate to fight all forms
\nof terrorism.<\/p>\n
\"Terrorism will not end if we only crack down on its network
\nor tackle the crimes if no measures are taken to cope with the
\nunderlying problems,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Terrorism in Indonesia, according to Ikrar, has a lot to do
\nwith inequity in the political, social and economic fields.<\/p>\n
\"If we fail to cope with the main problems, this will foster
\nantigovernment sentiments and certain groups will continue to
\ntake advantage of the difficult situation to fight for their own
\ninterests,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Ikrar believes that with the nation's experience in the Oct.
\n12 Bali blasts, terrorism would not have a place in the country
\nif all people join the nationwide effort to fight against
\nterrorism.<\/p>\n
\"Defending those who are found guilty for the sake of the good
\nname of an institution will only produce a backlash which is not
\nbeneficial for the development of conducive security conditions,\"
\nIkrar added.<\/p>\n
M. Toha, head of LIPI's research center for economics, said
\nthat the lack of legal certainty and law enforcement would make
\nit difficult to achieve economic recovery next year.<\/p>\n
The country's economic growth in the second quarter this year
\nstood at 3.7 percent, dropping significantly from 4.53 percent in
\nthe same period last year. The country needs to have an economic
\ngrowth rate of at least 5.5 percent per year to achieve economic
\nrecovery.<\/p>\n
\"The absence of a conducive business climate has scared
\ninvestors away and allowed capital flight to happen. We cannot
\ndevelop our economy if terrorism continues,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Toha said that some US$3.9 billion in investment capital had
\nleft the country as of the third quarter this year while the loan
\nto deposit ratio was still 48 percent.<\/p>\n
\"It shows that businessmen still lack the confidence to invest
\ntheir money or to develop businesses here,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Yekti Maunati, head of LIPI's research center for
\nregional resources, said that terrorism and security issues this
\nyear had an adverse impact on the country's tourism industry.<\/p>\n
\"Bali bombings, bomb threats in several regions, and travel
\nadvisories from several foreign countries have caused the tourism
\nindustry to flop. I'm afraid we will face massive unemployment
\nsoon,\" she said.<\/p>\n
Yekti said that tourism, the third biggest foreign exchange
\nearner after oil and gas, would face many difficulties next year
\nif the country could not guarantee security protection for
\ntourists.<\/p>\n
\"I believe that through cultural packages, our tourism
\nindustry will revive next year because we have abundance of
\ncultural resources. But, we cannot do anything if security is
\nstill an issue in the country,\" she said.<\/p>",
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