Taking the fight against terrorism to the high seas<\/p>\n
Graham Gerard Ong
\nResearch Associate
\nInstitute of Southeast Asian Studies
\nThe Straits Times
\nAsia News Network
\nSingapore<\/p>\n
The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) meeting on
\nmaritime security that opens in London today could not have been
\nmore timely.<\/p>\n
There is increasing evidence that al-Qaeda's terrorist network
\nhas taken sail through their attempts on ports and ships
\nworldwide. The Association of Southeast Asian's (ASEAN) maritime
\nstates have a crucial interest in seeing that maritime terrorism
\nis kept at bay.<\/p>\n
Terrorism expert David Claridge of Janusian Securities
\nbelieves that the Bali attack on Oct. 12 was a declaration of war
\non the global economy. Taped statements by two top leaders of al-
\nQaeda have also alluded to attacks on \"economic lifelines\". These
\nimmediately refer to commercial shipping lanes as a key avenue.<\/p>\n
If we delve deeper into Claridge's reading of the Bali attack,
\nthen the subtext in the main message becomes apparent: We will
\ntake to the waters; your ships will not be safe at port or sea.<\/p>\n
Coincidentally or not, the Bali attack corresponded with the
\nsecond anniversary of al-Qaeda's devastating assault on the USS
\nCole at a port in Yemen in 2000. The suicide bombing of a French-
\nflagged ship, the Limburg, off Yemen on Oct. 6 this year serves
\nas additional forewarning.<\/p>\n
In a recent discovery of a collection of poems written by
\nsupporters of al-Qaeda that was meant for public distribution,
\none piece signed by Mukhtar Said hails the attack on the USS
\nCole. He urges other young men to follow the path of those \"who
\nplunged into the seas steadfastly\".<\/p>\n
The sudden spate of terrorist plots on ships in Southeast Asia
\ntempers symbolism and verse with reality. According to
\nintelligence sources, masterminds of the USS Cole attack planned
\nanother attack on a U.S. ship visiting a Malaysian port in 2000.
\nEarlier this year, Singapore intelligence disrupted an al-Qaeda
\nplot to attack another U.S. ship.<\/p>\n
Detained senior al-Qaeda operative Omar al-Faruq, who helped
\nset up several terrorist training camps in Southeast Asia, also
\ntold officials of plans to attack an American naval ship in
\nSurabaya, Indonesia's second-largest port.<\/p>\n
The utility of maritime attacks in Southeast Asia and,
\ncritically, in the Malacca Straits, the jugular of the region's
\nmaritime trade, is unmistakable. The Malacca Straits is a highly
\nstrategic sea-lane that handles voluminous amounts of regional
\nimport and export cargo, as well as 80 percent of Japan's oil.
\nBetween 150 and 900 ships pass through it daily.<\/p>\n
Singapore's harbor, the world's busiest transit port, sits on
\nthis strait as a hub in the global economic lifeline.<\/p>\n
However, maritime terrorism attempts in the region so far have
\nfailed.<\/p>\n
There may be various reasons explaining their lack of
\nachievement. One of them is the lack of expertise in getting it
\nright. While al-Qaeda may have the material resources to conduct
\nmaritime attacks, they do not necessarily possess the skills in
\nmaritime craft and seafaring.<\/p>\n
Regional authorities should not exclude a nexus between
\nterrorism and piracy. It makes sense for terrorists to co-opt
\npirates' expertise into their training program. One should not
\nforget that the Sept. 11 attacks were successful largely because
\nthe perpetrators were trained as skilled airline pilots.<\/p>\n
Pirates in Southeast Asia have already proven themselves.
\nAccording to the International Maritime Bureau, pirates have
\ncarried out 20 successful attacks and hijackings along the
\nMalacca Straits and 72 such activities around Indonesia between
\nJan. 1 to Sept. 30.<\/p>\n
In the end, even if terrorists decide to go it alone,
\ntechnology will arbitrate the prospect for further failure.
\nAccording to maritime security analyst Vijay Sakhuja, dual-use
\ntechnologies such as the Global Positioning System (GPS),
\nsatellite communications systems, sea-sport scooters, scuba
\ndiving equipment and mini-submarines are being added to the
\ninventory list of maritime terrorists. These items are within al-
\nQaeda's purchasing power.<\/p>\n
Naval escorts and anti-boarding measures should be the last
\nline of prevention. The frontline of defense is good
\nintelligence.<\/p>\n
The safest gauge of success for states is one that increases
\nthe margin between the initial intention of terrorists and their
\nexecution of a plan. The best attack is to hunt them down
\nviciously.<\/p>\n
The IMO conference would do well to tackle threats to maritime
\nsecurity in several ways.<\/p>\n
First, there is an even greater need right now to enhance the
\ncooperative efforts between intelligence agencies across states.<\/p>\n
Second, it would do well to reclassify piracy under maritime
\nterrorism. This would ratchet the threat of an age-old criminal
\nactivity into a crucial security issue. While the two activities
\noperate on different aims, they share a similar medium for action
\nand create a near equal impact on political and economic
\nstability.<\/p>\n
Thirdly, the fight against piracy should become the point of
\nentry in the fight against maritime terrorism as both activities
\nare carried out through similar media and tactics. This avoids
\nduplication in formulating counteractive strategies and use of
\nresources.<\/p>\n
The intelligence community would also do well to move beyond
\nthe conventional calculus in uncovering the next move of
\nterrorists. A stronger grounding in culture and history and a
\ndose of imagination can serve as a bridge over prevailing
\ninformation gaps. As long as analysts and officials hold on to
\npredictable assumptions about the next step terrorists will take,
\nthey will continue to be stumped.<\/p>\n
Amid the heat of speculation about how Osama bin Laden would
\nflee Afghanistan, no one suspected that he would utilize his
\nfamily links with the tribesmen of the Hadhra Maug to assist him
\nin his journey towards Yemen by traditional dhow across the
\nArabian Sea. This was obviously a means of transport too
\nuninteresting to receive notice by intelligence agencies.<\/p>\n
The point here is that all possible avenues and links between
\nmilitant Islamic groups and other actors such as pirates and
\norganized criminals must be investigated. Analysts must leave
\nnothing to chance.<\/p>\n
For the moment, to use Sakhuja's words, Southeast Asia's
\n\"maritime infrastructure\" will continue to be \"the soft belly of
\nstates that can be attacked with little effort\". An attack to the
\nbelly is enough to cause the strongest of people to keel over in
\nincapacitation and defeat.<\/p>",
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