Susilo is not without political leverage<\/p>\n
Endy M. Bayuni, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
When Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took office in October, many
\npundits predicted that his real test would come when he
\ninevitably had to increase domestic fuel prices early in his
\npresidency. This he did on March 1, less than five months into
\noffice. Going by the waning protests and opposition -- in
\npolitical circles and on the streets -- SBY appears to have
\nsurvived what those pundits had believed would be a make-or-break
\nmoment for his presidency.<\/p>\n
The fact that it is now more than three weeks since he hiked
\ndomestic fuel prices by 29 percent is indicative of how
\nchallenging it has been for the Susilo administration to push his
\nfuel price policy, in spite of months of preparations, including
\na massive information campaign to win over public opinion.<\/p>\n
The House of Representatives has been trying to block the
\nincrease since day 1. Students have refused to let the issue
\nrest, staging protests and hunger strikes almost every day. And
\nthe media has been very critical, highlighting how high fuel
\nprices are affecting people's lives.<\/p>\n
But three weeks later, it appears that the President has
\nsurvived the political tsunami. What we see today are more like
\naftershocks of the earthquake, which will dissipate with time.<\/p>\n
For a policy as unpopular as increasing fuel prices, President
\nSusilo and his Cabinet have had their work cut out for them. Most
\npeople still remember that it was sharp increases in fuel prices
\nin 1998 that led to the massive protests that eventually forced
\nstrongman Soeharto to resign.<\/p>\n
That single event should be a reminder to any president of the
\nprecarious situation they will find themselves in if they attempt
\nto increase fuel prices. Last year, President Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri froze fuel prices in the run-up to the election
\n(which she lost anyway), as world oil prices soared to record
\nlevels of $50 plus per barrel.<\/p>\n
How did Susilo, whose power base is the small Democrat Party,
\nwhich only garnered seven percent of the vote in the 2004
\nelections, pull it off?<\/p>\n
The answer is that the President has been building up his
\npolitical leverage over the last five months, and this has
\nsignificantly bolstered his power base. He is not the pushover
\nthat many political big guns, and those who have tried to
\ncapitalize on his fuel policy over the last three weeks, had
\nassumed.<\/p>\n
Of course, the President has many things going for him.<\/p>\n
He has a claim to popular and constitutional legitimacy based
\non the September runoff in the presidential election.<\/p>\n
He timed the increase well. A survey by Lembaga Survei
\nIndonesia, an independent survey group, showed his popularity
\nstayed above 60 percent in February. Though down from 80 percent-
\nplus in December, it was a strong enough showing for him to
\nintroduce the highly unpopular policy without hurting his
\npolitical standing too much.<\/p>\n
That in itself, however, will not be sufficient for him to
\npursue his policies in a democratic Indonesia where the president
\nhas to share power with other institutions, most notably the
\nHouse of Representatives.<\/p>\n
His situation is a far cry from the days of Soeharto, when the
\npresident controlled not only the House of Representatives, but
\nalso had, at his personal disposal, the security force to compel
\npublic acceptance of all his policies. Soeharto even controlled
\npublic opinion through the muzzled media. With the exception of
\n1998 when his position had become shaky, Soeharto managed to push
\nthrough every single increase in fuel prices with relative ease.<\/p>\n
President Susilo enjoys none of these \"luxuries\".<\/p>\n
He does not control the House of Representatives, he is barred
\nfrom using the military or police to support his policies, and he
\nfaces a critical and at times even hostile media; and students
\nloath him for inflicting misery and hardship on them.<\/p>\n
But the President is not without loyal, if not powerful,
\nsupport in places where it matters: In the corridors of power and
\nthe business world. And this is something that he has worked on
\nand cultivated since taking office in September.<\/p>\n
His choice of Jusuf Kalla as his running mate now looks
\nincreasingly inspired, especially since the Vice President
\nmanaged to take over the leadership of the Golkar Party in
\nDecember. Whatever suspicions and misgivings people may have had
\nabout Kalla's increasing bargaining power vis-a-vis the
\nPresident, his chairmanship of Golkar has effectively defused the
\nvirulent hostility on the part of the House that we saw in the
\nfirst weeks of SBY's presidency.<\/p>\n
It is inconceivable that SBY could have survived the storm without the
\nsupport of Jusuf Kalla and his Golkar Party in the House. And
\nHouse Speaker Agung Laksono, who was elected to the post with the
\nhelp of Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
\n(PDI-P), took some of the heat away from the President by
\nblocking every attempt by Megawati's PDI-P to force the House to
\ntake a stand on the government's decision to hike fuel prices.<\/p>\n
The presence of politicians from smaller political parties in
\nthe Cabinet also helped to defuse the opposition in the House.<\/p>\n
It was essentially pay-back time as far as SBY was concerned.
\nThe President, or more likely Jusuf Kalla, had reportedly
\npresented an ultimatum to these parties, which were among the
\nmost vocal in criticizing the fuel price increases: to either
\ndrop their opposition, or have their men thrown out of the
\nCabinet. They heeded the warning.<\/p>\n
The President also has strong built-in leverage with the
\nbusiness community. Many people may have misgivings about the
\nappointment of businessman Aburizal Bakrie as chief economics
\nminister, but his connection with Kadin (the Indonesian Chamber
\nof Commerce and Industry) means that the President can count on
\nthe support of the powerful business community.<\/p>\n
The biggest leverage President Susilo has, however, is time.
\nHe has a five-year mandate and no one, not even the House, can
\ntake that away from him under the newly amended constitution that
\nmakes it next to impossible to impeach the president.<\/p>\n
His policies may be subject to closer democratic scrutiny, but
\nhis position as President is unshakeable. As long as he stays the
\ncourse, time will show whether his policy of increasing domestic
\nfuel prices is the right one, and thus prove his critics wrong.<\/p>\n
His spokesman, Andi Malarangeng, put it succinctly during a
\nrecent discussion about the President's political standing, when
\nhe said that \"Time is on our side.\"<\/p>\n
The President has passed the first really major test of his
\npresidency.<\/p>\n
This episode shows not only the political leverage he has
\nbuilt into his presidency, but more importantly, a glimpse of his
\ngrowing political skills and acumen, and even statesmanship.<\/p>\n
Now President Susilo can face the next test with greater
\nconfidence.<\/p>\n
For his next biggest challenge is already waiting: The
\nPresident will have to increase fuel prices once again to bring
\nIndonesia into line with the rest of the world.<\/p>\n
The writer is chief editor of The Jakarta Post<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/susilo-is-not-without-political-leverage-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }