Support of House vital for economic management<\/p>\n
Umar Juoro, Jakarta<\/p>\n
The results of the first round of the presidential election
\nshows that candidate popularity is much more important than
\npolitical party support. In fact, personality is almost as
\nimportant as substance. Though various credible opinion polls
\nhave shown that economic issues are the main concerns of the
\nvoters, the economic programs of the candidates have not been a
\ndetermining factor in the way the voters chose their candidates.<\/p>\n
This trend will likely continue in the second round of the
\npresidential election. Of course, the business community would
\nlike to see the economic programs of the two candidates in the
\nsecond round spelled out in greater detail. However, this may not
\nbe so important for the candidates as their attention will be
\nfocused on how to woo as many voters as possible rather than on
\nthe issue of how to deliver on their promises.<\/p>\n
Politically, the voters' preferences for candidates rest
\nmainly on the back of their popularity, especially in the case of
\nSusilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and to some extent also Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri, as her popularity is higher than that of her
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). The fact that
\nthis is the case is an interesting phenomenon.<\/p>\n
It signifies that the accountability of an individual leader
\nis more important for the voters than that of the political
\ninstitution standing behind him\/her. However, from the point of
\nview of the policy-making process, this could complicate the
\nsituation.<\/p>\n
It will be interesting to see how a president with a strong
\npopular vote, but who lacks the support of the House of
\nRepresentatives (DPR), will be able to run the country
\neffectively. This applies especially in the Susilo case.
\nPolitical party support might not be that important for Susilo to
\nwin the presidency, but it will be crucial when he tries to run
\nthe government.<\/p>\n
In this kind of situation, the policy-making process will
\nlikely continue at its current pace should President Megawati be
\nreelected. However, the situation may be strikingly different if
\nSusilo is elected.<\/p>\n
The market would immediately get a a boost if Susilo was
\nelected but the economic outlook in the medium term should cause
\na lot of concern if he is unable to gain strong support in the
\nHouse.<\/p>\n
Even with strong popular mandate, without enough support from
\nthe House, Susilo, as president, would not be able to implement
\nhis economic policies effectively as the government relies
\nheavily on House support on a day-to-day basis.<\/p>\n
We can say that the way the government works in Indonesia is
\nnow legislature-heavy. In addition to having to get along with
\nthe House, the president also faces problems related to
\ncoordination between central and local government and the
\nunrealistic expectations of voters that the president will be
\nable to solve their problems single-handedly.<\/p>\n
Failure to overcome these problems will not only lead to a
\nweak government, but also a perpetuation of voter behavior in
\nvoting for another populist figure in the next presidential
\nelection and dropping whom they voted for before because of his
\nor her failure to satisfy their excessively high expectations.<\/p>\n
Comparatively speaking, Indonesia at the crossroads between
\nbecoming a democratic and prosperous country like Korea or
\nTaiwan, or going the way of the Philippines, where presidential
\nelections are more often than not little more than beauty
\ncontests, while the economy remains mired in chronic problems.<\/p>\n
In fact, many of the problems faced by investors here have a
\nlot to do with the way the government works with the House and
\nthe relationship between central and local government, both of
\nwhich open the opportunity for widespread corruption and
\nuncertainty.<\/p>\n
The president cannot simply bypass the House to get what
\nhe\/she wants and for policies to be implemented effectively.
\nFailure to address this issue will only aggravate the problems of
\nlow growth and increasing unemployment.<\/p>\n
No matter how high a candidate's popularity may be, he\/she
\nwill still need the firm support of political party
\nrepresentatives in the House.<\/p>\n
Consequently, Susilo will need to develop cooperation with the
\npolitical parties, either sooner or later. It is only a matter of
\ntiming, and he knows this all too well.<\/p>\n
Susilo must realize that the natural development of the
\npolitical parties has been threatened by his meteoric rise in
\npopularity, and that this could incite strong resistance from the
\npoliticians in the House, and a determination to ensure that his
\ngovernment fails to deliver what it has promised.<\/p>\n
Even if he could govern successfully without House support,
\nthere would then be the danger of eroding the roles of political
\ninstitutions and the emergence of an excessively strong leader, a
\nsituation that would certainly not be sustainable in the long
\nrun.<\/p>\n
The writer is a senior fellow at the Habibie Center.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/support-of-house-vital-for-economic-management-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }