\u2018Super El Nino\u2019 raises fears for Asia reeling from Middle East\nconflict<\/p>\n
The warnings come with Asia buckling under the strain of an energy\nsupply crunch and fears over shortages of fertiliser and other\nindustrial and agricultural components which pass through the Strait of\nHormuz.<\/p>\n
BANGKOK: Already reeling from the effects of conflict in the Middle\nEast, Asia is now facing the prospect of strong El Nino conditions that\ncould spike energy demand, sap hydropower, and damage crops.<\/p>\n
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that brings\nworldwide changes in winds, air pressure, and rainfall patterns.<\/p>\n
Last week, the United Nations\u2019 weather and climate agency said El\nNino conditions could develop as soon as May to July.<\/p>\n
The World Meteorological Organization, meanwhile, said early signs\nindicated the event could be particularly strong, with some dubbing the\nimpending event a \u201csuper El Nino\u201d, although the term is not used by\nscientists.<\/p>\n
That is not good news for Asia, parts of which are traditionally\nheavily affected by the heatwaves, drought and heavy rains that El Nino\ncan bring.<\/p>\n
The phenomenon essentially shifts traditional weather patterns\naround, for example moving rain that normally falls over Indonesia out\nto sea, leaving the country vulnerable to drought and wildfires.<\/p>\n
El Nino occurs around every two to seven years and is forecast based\non sea temperatures.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe subsurface anomaly that we\u2019re seeing so far is pretty strong,\u201d\nsaid Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Australia\u2019s Monash\nUniversity.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt does look a little bit like what we saw in the 1997\/98 event, and\nthat was probably the strongest El Nino,\u201d he told AFP.<\/p>\n
There are still plenty of uncertainties, and van Rensch cautioned it\nwas possible an El Nino might not develop at all.<\/p>\n
CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS<\/p>\n
But the 1997 El Nino brought catastrophic impacts, including extreme\ndrought and devastating wildfires in Indonesia that burned through\nmillions of hectares and created regional air pollution.<\/p>\n
Authorities there have already identified peatlands at risk, and\nwarned the country could see its lowest rainfall in 30 years.<\/p>\n
The warnings come with Asia buckling under the strain of an energy\nsupply crunch and fears over shortages of fertiliser and other\nindustrial and agricultural components which pass through the Strait of\nHormuz.<\/p>\n
Iran has effectively closed the strategic waterway since the United\nStates and Israel launched attacks on the country on Feb 28, disrupting\nglobal fuel supplies.<\/p>\n
Hotter weather will strain energy grids already experiencing fuel\nshortages, as populations seek to cool homes and workplaces, warned\nHaneea Isaad, energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy\nEconomics and Financial Analysis.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor countries that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for\noil and gas deliveries and other trade, strained supply will lead to\nfurther fuel rationing, demand-side management and a reduction in\neconomic activities \u2026 impacting overall GDP growth,\u201d she told AFP.<\/p>\n
The droughts that El Nino can bring to parts of the region also pose\na threat to countries that are highly dependent on hydropower, said\nDinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at the Ember\nthinktank.<\/p>\n
\u201cMost ASEAN countries use a lot of hydropower,\u201d she warned,\nhighlighting Mekong countries, Nepal, and parts of Malaysia as\nparticularly vulnerable because of their dependence on the sector.<\/p>\n
The risks were laid bare in 2022, when a heatwave in China saw\nhydropower generation in Sichuan fall over 50 per cent, creating\nshortages that impacted households and industry alike.<\/p>\n
AGRICULTURE RISKS<\/p>\n
Hotter, drier conditions will also create fresh risks for\nagriculture, already under pressure as the ongoing conflict raises the\ncosts of fertiliser and fuel needed for farming equipment.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf crop prices do not rise enough to offset these higher input and\nshipping costs, producer margins will be squeezed, raising the\nlikelihood of lower fertiliser application and weaker yields,\u201d warned\nBMI, a unit of the Fitch Solutions research company.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis would intensify food price inflation and worsen food\ninsecurity, especially in import-dependent and climate-vulnerable\nmarkets.\u201d<\/p>\n
For some parts of Asia, an El Nino can bring bouts of intense rain\nand provoke flooding, which could impact sectors like southern China\u2019s\nlate-season rice harvest, added Isaad.<\/p>\n
How climate change affects the emergence and strength of El Ninos is\nstill not well understood.<\/p>\n
But research shows climate change itself will bring more frequent\nintense heatwaves, as well as sudden heavy rainfall that can cause\nflooding.<\/p>\n
So experts said countries across the region should further insulate\nenergy systems against more frequent disruptive weather events by\ndiversifying and greening their grids.<\/p>\n
\u201cSolar and wind, coupled with batteries, provide a more resilient\ninfrastructure than a centralised fossil infrastructure,\u201d said\nSetyawati.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/super-el-nino-raises-fears-for-asia-reeling-from-middle-east-conflict-1777949792", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }