Succession still unsure: U.S. expert<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): A prominent expert on Indonesia doubts there
\nwill be a change in national leadership in 1998.<\/p>\n
R. William Liddle, a professor of political science at Ohio
\nState University in the United States, said on Tuesday that
\nPresident Soeharto, already one of the world's longest serving
\nleaders, was likely to run for a seventh term as president.<\/p>\n
\"There are signs of this,\" Liddle said during a break at a
\nconference on Islam in Southeast Asia, where he presented the
\nresults of his study on Islamic political aspirations in
\nIndonesia.<\/p>\n
In his paper, entitled Islam and Politics in Later New Order
\nIndonesia, he explored a number of conditions which he believes
\nsignifies the President's intention to stay at the nation's helm
\nin order to maintain political stability.<\/p>\n
Liddle said Soeharto had appointed loyal officers in the
\npowerful armed forces and the ruling Golkar faction to enable him
\nto remain in office.<\/p>\n
\"Even though it is still not known if he wants to be re-
\nelected, if he does, it would be easy for him,\" Liddle said.<\/p>\n
The 1,000-seat People's Consultative Assembly will meet in
\n1998 to elect a new national president. Public discussion about
\nsuccession has become, at times, intensified and is usually
\nmarked by conflicting views.<\/p>\n
Political observer Amien Rais spearheads the group who want
\nmore discussion about succession in order to familiarize the
\npublic, which has only had one other leader in 50 years of
\nindependence, with the idea. Opposed to them are people who liken
\nsuch discussion as an attempt to hassle Soeharto to step down.<\/p>\n
The controversy was recently rekindled when Sudomo, chairman
\nof the presidential Supreme Advisory Council, said that Soeharto
\nwants a civilian to be vice president.<\/p>\n
Liddle said that Armed Forces Commander General Feisal
\nTanjung, army chief General Raden Hartono, Golkar chairman
\nHarmoko and Research and Technology Minister Jusuf Habibie would
\nensure a smooth Golkar campaign during the 1997 general election
\nand Soeharto's re-election in 1998.<\/p>\n
During the conference, Liddle explored the political role of
\nthe rising Islamic middle class and whether they see the existing
\npolitical avenues as adequate.<\/p>\n
Liddle believes that the perceived amicability between Moslems
\nand the power holders, which emerged less than a decade ago,
\ndoesn't necessarily mean that Moslems have central social and
\npolitical roles.<\/p>\n
Instead, he sees policies which appear to favor Moslems, such
\nas the abolition of the state-run lottery SDSB and the
\nestablishment of the now powerful Indonesian Association of
\nMoslem Intellectuals (ICMI), as actually serving the power
\nholders' wish to maintain the status quo.<\/p>\n
Liddle acknowledged that \"the rising moderate Islamic middle
\nclass\" outside the bureaucratic elite had at first been
\nenthusiastic about the establishment of ICMI which was to give
\nvoice to their political aspirations.<\/p>\n
\"By 1995, this enthusiasm appears to have waned with the
\nawareness that ICMI is tightly controlled at the top by members
\nof the state bureaucratic elite, and the realization that there
\nis little room at lower levels for initiative in organizational
\ndecision making,\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"There can be little doubt that ICMI is now an inside-the-
\nstate political bureaucratic faction like many others that have
\nexisted in the New Order over the past thirty years,\" he stated.<\/p>\n
Liddle doesn't believe that ICMI has sufficient representation
\nfor Moslems' perceived growing roles in society.<\/p>\n
\"What makes ICMI important today is neither its religious
\ncoloration, which is relevant but secondary, nor its links with
\nsociety, which are at this point minimal,\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"Rather, it is its centrality in (the) plan to maintain
\ncontrol over the political system through the 1997 elections and
\nthe 1998 convening of the MPR.\"<\/p>\n
Liddle's opinion was rebutted by several participants in the
\nconference, including Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the CIDES, a think-
\ntank of ICMI, and Robert Hefner, another U.S. political
\nscientist.<\/p>\n
Liddle has stated his belief several times that Indonesian
\npolitics will remain static and that no change is imminent in the
\npattern of relationships between Indonesian political
\ninstitutions in the next one or two decades.<\/p>\n
He states that the Armed Forces will remain the dominant
\npolitical force, while other groups, including the Moslem
\ncommunity, will remain on the sidelines.<\/p>\n
Liddle argues that today's seemingly stronger Islamic middle
\nclass is not the result of growing Moslem power. It is instead
\n\"the true product of the New Order government, which has
\nrelentlessly promoted economic development and personal piety and
\nsteadfastly opposed the political mobilization of religious
\ngroups in society.\" (swe)<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/succession-still-unsure-us-expert-1447893297",
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