Succession obsession gives Malaysia's UMNO heartburn<\/p>\n
By Simon Cameron-Moore<\/p>\n
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir
\nMohamad's decision to fill the vacant finance minister post
\nhimself is at first glance hardly a sign Asia's longest serving
\nleader plans to give up high office any time soon.<\/p>\n
Next month Mahathir celebrates 20 years in charge, but the 75-
\nyear-old premier does not seem to be winding down.<\/p>\n
Unable to find a ready-made successor to Daim Zainuddin, who
\nquit last Friday after informing the prime minister privately two
\nmonths ago he wanted to resign, Mahathir announced on Tuesday
\nevening he would do the job himself for the time being.<\/p>\n
Malaysians, members of Mahathir's own United Malays National
\nOrganization (UMNO), and foreign investors are waiting for the
\nday when he calls it quits, some with dread, others with relief.
\nMahathir has said this is his last term, and that he will not
\nserve after elections due in 2004, but there has been speculation
\nhe will step down beforehand.<\/p>\n
No one is holding their breath after his decision not to give
\nthe second-most powerful job in Malaysia to anyone else just yet.<\/p>\n
A senior UMNO Youth member said he doubted the premier
\nintended to step down just yet.<\/p>\n
\"Is he leaving or isn't he? If he is, he really should have
\nput everyone in place. If you ask me I think he's going to stay.\"<\/p>\n
A Kuala Lumpur-based political analyst, who requested
\nanonymity, agreed.<\/p>\n
\"Undeniably he's on the last leg. He can't go beyond 80, but I
\ndon't think he's going to step down.<\/p>\n
\"If he'd appointed an aspirant (to succeed him) or a
\npolitician not allied to him then it would have appeared that he
\nwas getting ready to go.\"<\/p>\n
But political pundits have been foxed by the mercurial,
\nsometimes emotional Mahathir's capacity to surprise before.<\/p>\n
Meantime, Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, Mahathir's
\nchosen a successor, can only wait.<\/p>\n
And while UMNO's three vice-presidents -- Najib Tun Razak,
\nMuhyiddin Yassin and Muhammad Muhammad Taib -- jockey for
\nposition, a dark horse is circling the ring.<\/p>\n
Razaleigh Hamzah, a Malay royal who once split from UMNO after
\nunsuccessfully challenging Mahathir in the late 1980s, has
\nrecently built bridges with the premier, making him one to watch,
\naccording to analysts and party insiders.<\/p>\n
UMNO's general assembly, on June 21-24, will test the party's
\nmood. Analysts say the last thing UMNO needs is in-fighting, with
\nthe Islamic opposition sucking away more Malay votes.<\/p>\n
Supreme Council member Shahrir Samad, a frequent Mahathir
\ncritic, advised not to expect any fireworks in the form of
\nconfidence motions or pressure on the prime minister to appoint a
\nfull time finance minister.<\/p>\n
\"Believe you me, we don't operate that way. There will be some
\nvoices expressing issues close to the Malay community,\" Shahrir
\ntold Reuters.<\/p>\n
He said the fixation with the succession issue was diverting
\nUMNO's energies away from making it more acceptable to voters and
\nthe need to stamp out money politics in its ranks.<\/p>\n
But the withdrawal of Mahathir's son, Mokhzani, from the
\nbusiness world in April, and Daim's unexplained resignation
\nsparked some talk Mahathir's end-game had been set in train.<\/p>\n
Mahathir has taken charge of finance before, after the sacking
\nand jailing of his erstwhile deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, at the height
\nof the Asian crisis in 1998.<\/p>\n
At that time he controversially brought in capital controls
\nand fixed the exchange rate at 3.8 ringgit to the dollar.<\/p>\n
The policy seemed to work, protecting the banking system and
\ngenerating export-led growth, so that Malaysia bounced back more
\nstrongly than most of its neighbors.<\/p>\n
But now Mahathir is seen as wedded to the idea of exchange
\ncontrols and the currency peg, and there are concerns that the
\nprime minister may not recognize when policy changes are needed.<\/p>\n
Whatever Daim's faults were, his counterbalance to a strong-
\nminded premier on policy is now missing, analysts say.<\/p>",
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