Strange bedfellows<\/p>\n
A recent political maneuver by Amien Rais of the National
\nMandate Party (PAN), Abdurrahman Wahid of the National Awakening
\nParty (PKB) and Megawati Soekarnoputri of the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) to confront the so-
\ncalled status quo forces is not really as significant as it might
\nappear to some. The reason for this is that except for having
\nwhat they perceive to be a common status quo enemy (meaning
\nGolkar Party and President B.J. Habibie), they have very little
\nelse in common in terms of ideology or party platform.<\/p>\n
To start with, Megawati herself is basically pro-status quo
\n(i.e. in favor of the existing situation). Not only does she
\noppose any amendment to the 1945 Constitution as well as any
\nmeaningful autonomy for the provinces, she also supports the dual
\nfunction of the armed forces. These are all issues on which Amien
\nRais has a completely opposite view. Furthermore, the vast
\nmajority of Amien Rais' followers, being mostly devout Muslims
\nfrom Muhammadiyah, will surely find Megawati's ambiguous or
\nsyncretic religious beliefs and Abdurrahman Wahid's secular
\nideology quite repugnant.<\/p>\n
The trouble with Amien Rais is that he is so ambitious and
\nobsessed with becoming the next president, he is prepared to do
\nanything to achieve that ambition, including forming a senseless
\nalliance with strange bedfellows. It is clear that the current
\nusage of status quo and reformist is inconsistent, confusing and
\nevidently merely self-serving.<\/p>\n
Regarding the elections, I think one thing some political
\nobservers tend to overlook is the fact that Golkar and Islamic
\nparties, for ethnic and religious reasons, are relatively
\nstronger outside of Java than within Java. While these two
\nregions practically have the same amount of representation in the
\nHouse of Representatives, namely about 230 seats each, the region
\noutside of Java has more representatives in the People's
\nConsultative Assembly, which elects the president.<\/p>\n
Another factor also overlooked by some observers is that the
\nonly people likely to vote for PDI Perjuangan are non-Muslims and
\nstrictly nominal or syncretic Muslims, who together constitute
\nonly 10 percent to 15 percent of the population. Based on these
\nconsiderations, as well as the results of all previous elections,
\nI would estimate the combined votes for the four groupings of
\npolitical parties as follows: (1) Islamic group, consisting of
\nabout a dozen parties: 30 percent to 35 percent (2) PAN: 10
\npercent to 15 percent (3) Golkar and allies: 25 percent to 30
\npercent (4) PDI Perjuangan, PKB and allies: 25 percent to 30
\npercent.<\/p>\n
Under these circumstances, the Islamic parties might first
\nconsider the possibility of forming a coalition with PAN, but
\nthis may not come to anything as their combined votes
\nmay not amount to 50 percent of the seats in the House. A more
\nlikely alternative, I think, is a negotiated coalition between
\nthe Islamic parties and Golkar, since not only could they control
\nmore than 50 percent of the seats in the House, but their
\npresidential candidate, either from Golkar (not necessarily B.J.
\nHabibie) or one of the Islamic parties, could also win
\nconvincingly in the Assembly.<\/p>\n
Although the above is essentially conjectural, one thing seems
\nto be virtually certain: the chance that either Megawati or
\nAbdurrahman Wahid will be elected by the Assembly as the next
\npresident is very slim.<\/p>\n
MASLI ARMAN<\/p>\n
Jakarta<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/strange-bedfellows-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }