Stability a feature of 2006<\/p>\n
Rizal Sukma, Jakarta<\/p>\n
As Indonesia enters 2006, the general political outlook
\npresents a rather positive picture. There are strong grounds to
\nbelieve that national politics will be characterized more by
\ncontinuity than by change. In other words, no major political
\nupheavals are expected over the next year.<\/p>\n
One issue that will continue to catch the attention of the
\ngeneral public is the relationship between President Susilo
\nBambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Vice-President Jusuf Kalla (JK). It
\nis likely that their relationship will continue to be locked into
\nthe politics of adjustment, compromise and cooperation. Judging
\nfrom past events -- especially during the process of Cabinet
\nreshuffle -- it is clear that both leaders are capable of
\naccommodating each other's political interests. While JK's
\npolitical influence is still strong, he has demonstrated his
\nability to compromise. Meanwhile, there have also been signs of
\ngrowing assertiveness on the part of President SBY. Whether this
\ntrend will continue, however, remains to be seen.<\/p>\n
The structure of the relationship between the executive and
\nlegislature will not undergo significant change. However, sources
\nof contention and occasional tension remain possible on numerous
\nissues, especially on the question of Aceh. In 2006, the role of
\nthe House of Representatives (DPR) will be critical in consolidating
\npeace in the province. For example, if the DPR fails to pass the
\nnew proposed bill on Aceh, especially on the issue of local
\npolitical parties, then the future of peace process could be put
\nin jeopardy.<\/p>\n
Such an act from the DPR would make the government's position
\ndifficult, both in the eyes of the Acehnese and the international
\ncommunity. Indonesia's government would be seen as the party that
\nwrecked the peace process to which it committed itself on Aug.
\n15, 2005. That would certainly strengthen the position of GAM and
\nfacilitate the return of conflict to Aceh.<\/p>\n
It is unlikely that political parties, and for that matter the
\nDPR, would play a more effective role that what they have already
\nbeen so far. Political fractions in the DPR, which still serve as
\nrepresentatives of their respective parent political parties,
\nwill be obliged to follow the party line. Consequently, the DPR
\nwill continue to face the same old problem of how to serve as an
\neffective counter-balance to the government.<\/p>\n
Moreover, major political parties -- such as the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the National Awakening
\nParty (PKB), and the Democratic Party -- will continue to be
\npreoccupied by the need for internal consolidation, as a result
\nof protracted internal friction within the parties. Especially
\nfor the Democratic Party, an additional challenge is how to
\ntransform its constituency from a \"SBY Fan Club\" into a real
\npolitical power base.<\/p>\n
A rather different challenge is going to be faced by the
\nrising of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). The PKS is becoming
\nincreasingly fond of the taste of power by being a supporter of
\nthe government. As a party that still relies on its image as a
\n\"clean and caring\" party, the main challenge for PKS is how to
\nfind a balance between the desire to be part of the ruling
\ngovernment on the one hand, and the need to maintain its image as
\na critical party before the constituency.<\/p>\n
The involvement of PKS cadres in the government, however,
\nwould severely limit the party's ability to be independent, and
\ncould serve as a source of friction for the party. If this issue
\nis not managed well, the image of PKS as a \"solid\" party would
\nfor the first time face a serious challenge.<\/p>\n
This question of how to position itself within the power
\nstructure would have an effect on PKS' vote in the 2009
\nelections. However, the PKS still occupies a unique position
\namong Islamic parties or parties with Islamic base. It is
\nexpected that the support base for the PKS will grow stronger.<\/p>\n
The new source of support for the PKS would likely come from
\nthe \"exodus\" of supporters of the National Mandate Party (PAN),
\nwhich has begun to lose its attractiveness in the post-Amien
\nRais era.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the nature of the PKB as an East Java-based party would
\nnot undergo significant change. Meanwhile, it is unlikely that
\nthe United Development Party (PPP) and Crescent Star Party (PBB)
\nwill change their positive attitudes towards the SBY-JK
\ngovernment.<\/p>\n
The position of Indonesian Military (TNI) in 2006 is
\ninteresting to watch for two reasons.<\/p>\n
First, the image and confidence of the TNI will be greatly
\nimproved, especially due to its commitment to the peace process
\nin Aceh, and also to the lifting of the military embargo by the
\ngovernment of the United States.<\/p>\n
Second, the question of the replacement of the commander of
\nthe TNI would again be on the agenda. On the state of military
\nreform, however, it is difficult to expect any major progress. As
\nthe Minister of Defense himself continues to glorify the role and
\npolitical importance of the TNI while looking down on the ability
\nand credibility of civilian political forces, there are reasons
\nto believe that military reform would still move at a snail's
\npace.<\/p>\n
On policy issues, the challenge of democratic consolidation
\nwill continue to be the most important item on the political
\nagenda. Major progress in this area -- such as the
\ninstitutionalization of political succession through elections
\nand the freedom of speech -- have been well recognized.<\/p>\n
However, these minimum criteria of democracy need to be
\nsupplemented by a strong judiciary, good governance, effective
\nlaw enforcement, respect for human rights, and the
\ninternalization of democratic norms by the state apparatus and
\nsociety at large. As these qualities of a democratic society
\nstrengthen, the quality of security and public order will follow
\nsuit, and the threat of terrorism and extremism will be better
\nmanaged. And, as a government equipped with strong legitimacy and
\nmandate from the people, the SBY-JK government should be well
\nplaced to push these agenda items.<\/p>\n
Overall, it is unlikely that Indonesia's politics in 2006 will
\nenter a year of turmoil. On the contrary, there are reasons to
\nbelieve that the sense of stability will continue to strengthen.
\nWhether the government will be able to stimulate economic
\nprogress out of this positive political environment, however, is
\nan entirely a different matter.<\/p>\n
The writer is deputy executive director, CSIS, Jakarta.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/stability-a-feature-of-2006-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }