S'pore may post double-digit growth<\/p>\n
Martin Abbugao, Agence France-Presse, Singapore<\/p>\n
Singapore may achieve double-digit economic growth this year,
\nits highest rate in a decade, a cabinet minister said Friday, as
\nrobust export numbers for August gave credence to his projection.<\/p>\n
\"The good news is that Singapore's economy is recovering,\"
\nManpower Minister Ng Eng Hen said in a speech to a
\ntelecommunications union.<\/p>\n
\"Singapore may even register double-digit economic growth this
\nyear. More new jobs will be created.\"<\/p>\n
It was the first time a cabinet minister has publicly said the
\neconomy, which is rebounding sharply from the impact of the
\nSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) crisis last year, could
\ngrow in the double-digit range.<\/p>\n
The last time Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP) enjoyed
\nsuch growth was in 1993 when it rose more than 11 percent and in
\n1994 when it expanded above 12 percent.<\/p>\n
GDP contracted in 1998 due to the Asian financial crisis and
\nin 2001 following a recession. Despite SARS, the economy managed
\nto chalk up 1.1 percent growth in 2003.<\/p>\n
A median forecast of private economists surveyed last month by
\nthe Monetary Authority of Singapore, the city-state's central
\nbank, said the economy should grow 8.4 percent this year and slow
\ndown to 5.0 percent in 2005.<\/p>\n
Singapore's elder statesmen Lee Kuan Yew has said the economy
\ncould post a sustainable annual growth rate of 4.0-6.0 percent in
\nthe next decade, lifted by the giant economies of China and
\nIndia.<\/p>\n
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) for August released by the
\ngovernment trade body International Enterprise Singapore on
\nFriday gave credence to Manpower Minister Ng's projection.<\/p>\n
The export numbers beat economists' forecasts, growing 29
\npercent year-on-year on the back of robust sales of electronics
\nand pharmaceuticals.<\/p>\n
The rate is the strongest since a 30.7 percent expansion in
\nDecember 2003 and was better than market estimates ranging
\nbetween 20.3 and 27.4 percent.<\/p>\n
Non-oil domestic exports for the month totaled S$11.474
\nbillion (US$6.8 billion). Total trade in August grew 28.1 percent
\nyear-on-year to S$49.576 billion.<\/p>\n
David Cohen, an economist with research house Action
\nEconomics, said double-digit growth this year was possible.<\/p>\n
\"With continued growth like this, we can certainly make it to
\nthe 10 percent level,\" he told AFP.<\/p>\n
\"I think this (NODX growth) is an encouraging number. It will
\nsupport the statement by the manpower minister.\"<\/p>\n
Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with GK Goh brokerage,
\nagreed that double-digit growth is possible -- but only if the
\npharmaceuticals sector performs strongly for the rest of the year
\namid forecasts for a moderation in global electronics demand.<\/p>\n
\"It is possible if the pharmaceuticals sector continues to
\nsurprise on the upside and (there is) manufacturing growth of 22-
\n24 percent in the second half of this year,\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"It's quite demanding.\"<\/p>\n
Song said export growth has peaked and should slow in the last
\nfour months of the year.<\/p>\n
\"How much of a moderation depends on the performance of
\npharmaceuticals. That's really the wild card,\" he said,
\napparently referring to the fact that pharmaceutical plants are
\nclosed for long periods for cleaning and maintenance after each
\nproduction cycle.<\/p>\n
The pharmaceuticals sector is an emerging pillar of the
\nSingapore economy after the government embarked on an effort to
\nreduce dependence on electronics.<\/p>\n
Singapore serves as a production base and regional
\nheadquarters for many of the industry's leading global players
\nsuch as Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck Sharpe and Dohme, Wyeth
\nand Schering Plough.<\/p>",
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