Southeast Asia in 2004: Living dangerously again<\/p>\n
Thang D. Nguyen, Program Coordinator, United in Diversity
\nForum, Jakarta<\/p>\n
2004, the Year of the Monkey, will be an exciting, but
\nchallenging one for Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n
The New Year has already challenged the leadership in several
\nSoutheast Asian countries with the bird flu outbreak. Thus far,
\nthis epidemic has taken lives in Thailand and Vietnam and led to
\nmass culls of millions of chickens throughout Asia -- from
\nCambodia to China, Laos, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea
\nand Taiwan -- and recently reached the US.<\/p>\n
While scientists still try to confirm if this virus can be
\ntransmitted human-to-human, it gives us all a chilling reminder
\nof the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that took many
\nlives and damaged Asia's economies severely last year and shows
\nthat the region's leadership has failed the test of handling this
\ncrisis.<\/p>\n
The bird flu aside, leadership in several Southeast Asian
\ncountries is expected to change this year. For Indonesia and the
\nPhilippines, 2004 is an important year as their presidential
\nelections are only a few months away.<\/p>\n
In the Philippines, one can only hope that, if re-elected,
\nPresident Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will become a better president
\nthan she has in her first term in office, especially in
\nrevitalizing the economy and dealing with the Muslim rebels in
\nthe south. As bright and strong a leader as she is, President
\nArroyo needs to enhance and protect her credibility by making her
\ndecisions in a manner consistent with what she says.<\/p>\n
Even though the excitement about Indonesia's elections has not
\npicked up yet, as it did at the same time before the 1999
\nelections, it will be a most significant presidential election in
\nthe country's history as the president will be selected by direct
\nvotes. President Megawati Soekarnoputri -- despite her
\nshortcomings and lack of leadership -- is in fact the leading
\ncandidate at the moment.<\/p>\n
Whatever the outcomes of the presidential elections in
\nIndonesia and the Philippines, it is certain that the elected
\npresidents have an overwhelmingly challenging task of bringing
\nabout stability, security, and prosperity in these troubled
\ndemocracies.<\/p>\n
A quick look at its other heads of states shows that Southeast
\nAsia's leadership is young and, therefore, still on the learning
\ncurve.<\/p>\n
Malaysia's new prime minister, Abdullah Badawi -- or Pak Lah
\nas he is affectionately called -- took office last October as Dr.
\nMahathir bin Mohamad retired after 22 years of leadership. Pak
\nLah is navigating to find his own direction and build his own
\nleadership style, which is different from that of Dr. Mahathir
\nbin Mohamad.<\/p>\n
Thus far, he appears to fair rather well. Malaysia will soon
\nhave its general elections. It is reasonable to expect that Pak
\nLah will make good use of his time in office to gain popularity
\nbefore deciding when the elections will take place.<\/p>\n
Singapore's Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong is expected to hand
\nthe baton over to Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (the son
\nof Singapore's founding father, Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew), by
\n2005. While the exact timing of this transition is unclear, it
\nis certain that Goh will do so when he feels is most appropriate
\nand that Lee, the junior, has been well groomed and is ready to
\ntake charge ably as soon as he assumes his new post.<\/p>\n
Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Sinawatra has been
\nexceptional. In his three years in office, Thaksin has been, and
\ncontinues to be, a leader of respect (if not fear). Described by
\nsome as a transactional leader, Thaksin's policies, those with
\nheavy-handed government intervention into not only in the economy
\nand politics, but also other aspects of the Thai society, have
\nmade a turn-around for Thailand -- one of the most prominent
\nvictims of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 and from which
\nit spread to neighbor economies.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, Thailand's cover up of and belated response to
\nthe bird flu will both hurt the country's chicken poultry exports
\nand Thaksin's rising reputation.<\/p>\n
In addition to being young, it is also fair to say that ASEAN
\nleaders, with a few exceptions, are for the most part not visible
\nor heard enough in international arenas and not strong or
\nproactive enough in their region. This is certainly true in the
\ncase of Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. It is
\nreasonable to expect the leadership in these countries to remain
\nthe same in 2004.<\/p>\n
ASEAN's ultimate goal is to integrate its ten member
\neconomies. While this is a noble cause that ASEAN has every
\nreason to pursue, it presents the grouping with a number of
\nformidable challenges.<\/p>\n
For one thing, there is a lack of the much-needed political
\nwill among member countries to reduce both tariff and non-tariff
\nbarriers within AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Agreement). This lack of
\ncommitment from member countries has made trade more expensive
\nand business more costly to do in and with them. The consequence
\nis evident in that intra-ASEAN trade has fallen by 19 per cent
\nsince 1994, when the free trade area was established.<\/p>\n
The second challenge is the grouping's consensus-oriented
\ngoverning style. Founded on a non-interference principle, ASEAN
\nas a grouping of diverse political regimes, cultures, and
\nideologies needs to move beyond its consensus-seeking tradition
\nto a majority-voting style. Unpopular as it is, a majority-
\nvoting style would enable ASEAN to move forward with its market
\nintegration and trade liberalization processes.<\/p>\n
The third challenge is the grouping's lack of institutions to
\nfurther its economic integration. The grouping's Jakarta-based
\nSecretariat is not suitable, nor is it capable, to monitor and
\nimplement this process.<\/p>\n
If anything, AFTA is operated by ministers of trade and
\nindustry from the ten member countries who hold long meetings and
\nhammer out wordy documents that are hardly implemented. It is
\ntime to create an ASEAN Trade Organization (ATO) to handle its
\ntrade matters and other perfunctory institutions to monitor and
\nimplement its economic integration.<\/p>\n
Leaders like Lee Kuan Yew, Mahathir bin Mohamad, and Soeharto
\nhave developed ASEAN and worked hard to earn it a place and
\nrespect in the international community. The grouping's
\nleadership torch is now in the hands of its current leaders, who
\nshould make it burn as brightly as possible before handing it on
\nto their successors.<\/p>\n
These are his personal views.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/southeast-asia-in-2004-living-dangerously-again-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }