Political and legal observer Muslim Arbi has levelled sharp criticism\nat the practice of political surveying in Indonesia. According to him,\nthe similarity in survey results from various institutions has raised\nquestions within the community regarding the independence of the data\ncollection process.<\/p>\n
Muslim Arbi stated that one common suspicion is the use of the same\nnetwork of survey managers or enumerators by several different survey\nagencies. This condition, he noted, has the potential to cause survey\nresults to follow similar patterns. \u201cMany people are asking why\npolitical survey results from various agencies often appear similar? One\nsuspicion frequently discussed is that some survey agencies use the same\nnetwork of survey managers or enumerators to collect data in the field,\u201d\nhe said on Friday.<\/p>\n
He assessed that the primary issue does not lie solely with the\nsurvey agencies themselves, but rather with the alleged existence of\nthird parties managing enumerator networks across various regions.\nAccording to Muslim, if there is a dependency on the same network, the\nindependence of the data collection process can be questioned.\nConsequently, the survey results published by various agencies may show\nalmost identical trends.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe alleged manipulation does not occur within the survey agencies,\nbut rather within the parties managing the surveyor networks. They are\nsuspected of having the ability to manipulate the data collection\nprocess so that the resulting figures appear as if they come from\ncorrect sampling, even though the quality of implementation is\nquestionable,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He argued that if these allegations are true, the issue is no longer\nmerely about research methodology, but touches upon the ethics of\ndemocracy. He believes that surveys, which should function as scientific\ninstruments to capture public preferences, could transform into tools\nfor shaping public opinion if the process is not conducted\nindependently. \u201cSurveys that should be tools to measure public opinion\ncould instead become tools to steer public perception. Survey figures\nwould no longer merely reflect reality, but could potentially influence\nthe political choices of the public.\u201d<\/p>\n
In political science, survey results do not only serve as a\nmeasurement tool but can also influence voter behaviour. This phenomenon\nis known as the \u2018bandwagon effect\u2019, where voters tend to support\ncandidates perceived to be leading based on survey results. Conversely,\nthere is also the \u2018underdog effect\u2019, where sympathy arises for\ncandidates perceived to be lagging. Both phenomena demonstrate that the\npublication of survey results can have a psychological impact on\npolitical dynamics, though the magnitude of influence varies depending\non context, political literacy, and the credibility of the survey\nagency.<\/p>\n
Therefore, methodological quality is the primary factor in\ndetermining whether survey results are worthy of public reference.\nMuslim emphasised that transparency is a fundamental requirement for\nsurvey agencies to maintain public trust. He urged every survey agency\nto disclose in detail the research methodology used, including sampling\ntechniques, number of respondents, survey timing, margin of error,\nconfidence levels, and the oversight mechanism for enumerators in the\nfield.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, Muslim noted the importance of explaining the data\nvalidation process to ensure that interviews are truly conducted\naccording to procedure and are not merely based on administrative\nreports. He believes that the more transparent a survey agency is\nregarding its methodology and internal audit processes, the easier it\nwill be for the public to assess the quality of the published survey\nresults.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/similarity-in-survey-findings-raises-questions-regarding-independence-1785491548", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }