Signs to watch for in RI polls<\/p>\n
Stanley A. Weiss, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore<\/p>\n
Voters in Indonesia, which has the world's largest Muslim
\npopulation, will soon choose their own president. However, next
\nyear's direct election is not as simple as it seems.<\/p>\n
Under the new election law, only parties that receive more
\nthan 5 percent of the vote in next April's parliamentary election
\ncan field a presidential candidate in the general election
\nseveral months later. To win the presidency, a candidate must
\nreceive a majority of the national vote and more than 20 percent
\nof the vote in at least half of Indonesia's 30 provinces --
\neffectively ruling out all but the two major parties.<\/p>\n
How to make sense of it all? And what will the outcome mean
\nfor the future of this democracy-in-progress?<\/p>\n
Here are five signs to watch for.<\/p>\n
First, will we see a mother-and-child reunion? The country's
\nlargest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
\nPerjuangan) hopes President Megawati Soekarnoputri can hold on to
\npower. However, accused of betraying the cause of reform in favor
\nof business and military interests, Ibu Mega (\"Mother Mega\") has
\nlost the love of her student and activist supporters.<\/p>\n
The election is still Megawati's to lose. Watch for whether
\nshe continues to side with the entrenched elite or wins back her
\ndisenchanted supporters by returning to her reformasi roots.<\/p>\n
Or will there be a \"go-straight-to-jail\" card for Akbar
\nTandjung? It was once a foregone conclusion that Golkar, the
\nsecond largest party and the political vehicle of the former
\nSoeharto dictatorship, would nominate its powerful boss, Akbar.
\nHowever, convicted of corruption, he now awaits his appeal to the
\nSupreme Court.<\/p>\n
A legal victory for Akbar will clear the path to his party's
\nnomination. However, electoral victory is unlikely to follow. The
\npublic are fed up with corruption, of which Akbar is now the
\nposter child.<\/p>\n
Third, will we see a new face for Golkar? A Supreme Court
\nruling against Akbar will send him straight to jail and force
\nGolkar to find a new standard bearer. Among the 19 contenders
\nthere are three to watch.<\/p>\n
Gen. Wiranto, the last armed forces chief under Soeharto,
\nhopes Indonesians will overlook past human rights abuses. Now a
\ncrooner of love songs, the \"singing general\" serenades voters as
\nthe law-and-order strongman who will save the nation.<\/p>\n
Coordinating Minister of People's Welfare Yusuf Kalla is
\nwidely admired for ending Muslim-Christian warfare in the Maluku
\nislands, but he is not a native of Java, home to two-thirds of
\nIndonesian voters. In contrast, Yogyakarta Governor Sultan
\nHamengku Buwono X is revered on the mainland as the last of the
\nJava kings, but has little appeal in the provinces.<\/p>\n
Polls show a geographically balanced Sultan-Yusuf ticket
\ncrushing Megawati.<\/p>\n
Fourth, watch out for an Islamic kingmaker. Neither Megawati
\nnor Golkar is expected to win an outright majority in the first
\nround of voting. Barring an unlikely Megawati-Golkar alliance
\nthat would lock up the election, the race will be on to forge a
\nwinning coalition in the run-off. Three smaller Islamic-oriented
\nparties may emerge as potential kingmakers.<\/p>\n
Former president Abdurrahman Wahid remains the leader of the
\nNational Awakening Party (PKB) and retains the support of the 40
\nmillion-member Nahdlatul Ulama, the country's largest Muslim
\nsocio-political organization.<\/p>\n
Amien Rais, speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly and
\nleader of the National Mandate Party (PAN), has the support of
\nthe second largest Muslim organization, the 30-million-strong
\nMuhammadiyah. Watch if Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah can
\novercome old rivalries and unite behind a single Islamic
\ncandidate.<\/p>\n
Hamzah Haz, the current Vice-President and leader of the
\nlargest Muslim political party, the United Development Party
\n(PPP), said he will not spurn offers of an Islamic coalition.<\/p>\n
Last, what about wild cards? After two major terrorist attacks
\nin as many years, politicians like Amien and Hamzah who have
\nflirted with Islamic radicals are finished in moderate Indonesia.
\nIndeed, the two major parties may yet find their winning ticket
\nin some unusual places.<\/p>\n
If Megawati dumps Hamzah, watch retired army general Susilo
\nBambang Yudhoyono, now Coordinating Minister for Political and
\nSecurity Affairs and popular for overseeing the military
\ncrackdown on the rebellious Aceh province. His selection as vice-
\npresident will be a signal that Megawati intends to defer to the
\nmilitary.<\/p>\n
Golkar may find its salvation in Nurcholish Madjid, a moderate
\nMuslim scholar beloved by Indonesians. Although he declined to
\nseek the Golkar presidential nomination, he would make a popular
\nrunning mate and useful cover should a Golkar administration and
\nits military allies intensify the crackdown on Islamic militants.<\/p>\n
Will Mother Mega keep her children in line? Will Akbar stay
\nout of jail? Will Sultan-Kalla be the unbeatable duo? Will
\nIslamic parties anoint the winner? Will wild cards shake up the
\nsystem?<\/p>\n
One outcome is certain. Five years removed from the
\ndictatorship that ruled this nation for three decades, the
\ncompetition is a healthy sign that Indonesia is taking another
\nstep towards being the world's third largest democracy.<\/p>\n
And that is something to watch -- and cheer.<\/p>\n
The writer is founder and chairman of Business Executives for
\nNational Security, a non-partisan organization based in
\nWashington. This is a personal comment.<\/p>",
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