Should Abdurrahman be going to Australia?<\/p>\n
By Irawan Abidin<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): There have been debates on whether President
\nAbdurrahman Wahid should be going to Australia and if so, when?
\nThe debate, unfortunately, has generated more heat than light
\nwhen, to the mind of this observer, there is a perfectly rational
\nway of arriving at an answer.<\/p>\n
If President Wahid does go to Australia in January, as has
\nbeen publicly intimated recently, the best things that can happen
\nare as follows:<\/p>\n
Instantly, the rift between Australia and Indonesia is mended,
\nthe wrinkles of misunderstanding are smoothed over and both
\ncountries resume being friends and cooperators.<\/p>\n
There may be all sorts of demonstrations against Indonesia
\nduring the visit, but there will be no incidents of a sufficient
\nmagnitude to embarrass the visiting President.<\/p>\n
The many members of the Australian press that are habitually
\ncritical of Indonesia, in deference to the visiting President,
\nwill tone down their criticisms and may even observe a
\nmoratorium. The NGOs likewise take a moderate tone on Indonesia.<\/p>\n
Indonesian misgivings on the current enhancement of the
\nAustralian military establishment are allayed and there is a
\ngeneral surge of goodwill between the two peoples.<\/p>\n
Trade and investment and other forms of economic cooperation
\nbetween the two countries begin to pick up.<\/p>\n
All these, of course, are possible. And the gains of such a
\nsuccessful state visit are tremendous. But in this real world
\nmany things can go wrong. Wisdom dictates that the risks should
\nbe considered.<\/p>\n
Some of the bad things that can happen during the projected
\nvisit are as follows:<\/p>\n
The Australian mass media could welcome the Indonesian
\nPresident with a barrage of criticisms and attacks on his
\npolicies, style of governing and the Indonesian handling of the
\nmilitia problem in East Timor, and whatever else they can think
\nof. The Australian government would be totally unable to prevent
\nthat hostile barrage if the media decided to launch it.<\/p>\n
Demonstrations of NGOs and other groups rabidly hostile to
\nIndonesia could turn out to be unruly and could even get out of
\nhand, to the discomfort and possible embarrassment of the
\nvisiting President.<\/p>\n
If there is even a small incident, it could be magnified to
\nextreme proportions by the media. There would be an angry
\nreaction among the loyal followers of Abdurrahman in Indonesia,
\nwhich the media would also sensationalize.<\/p>\n
Because the visit would then be considerably unsuccessful,
\nblame would be tossed back and forth between the two countries,
\nnot between the two governments, but between groups of hotheads
\nin the two countries. Instead of improving, relations between the
\ntwo countries further deteriorate.<\/p>\n
That is, of course, the worst-case scenario. But considering
\nthat Indonesia has not had a streak of good luck during the past
\nseveral years, the risk is real that it could happen.<\/p>\n
Still, the gains of a successful state visit, which is always
\npossible, are extraordinary and President Wahid is nothing if not
\na man courageous enough to take risks for worthy gains. He should
\nnot be overly criticized for desiring to make that state visit in
\nthe near future.<\/p>\n
But to be perfectly rational about the matter, there is a way
\nof achieving the same tremendous gains without incurring the
\nattendant enormous risks. Here is how it could be done:<\/p>\n
Both governments announce that President Abdurrahman Wahid
\nwill definitely go to Australian -- but not very soon. The visit
\nwill take place at some time in the future, decided by the two
\ngovernments together.<\/p>\n
In the meantime both governments are willing to be patient and
\nwork on their relationship at various other levels of
\ninteraction. It is made clear that the option of a state visit
\nremains open, but it will only be taken when both governments
\nhave laid sufficient foundation to ensure its success. It is
\nimportant that both governments make the announcement together.<\/p>\n
Dialogue at various other levels is then broadened and
\nintensified. A good occasion to launch that effort is the
\nforthcoming Australia-Indonesia Ministerial Forum (during which
\nthe proposed joint announcement could be made).<\/p>\n
During that event and at every opportunity afterwards, both
\nsides consciously and deliberately strive to exchange positive
\nstatements that reflect a determined effort to improve relations
\nand enhance cooperation.<\/p>\n
This will not stop the critics of both governments, but a
\ngeneral public that has not taken sides against either government
\nwill at least be given a chance to discern that something
\npositive and welcome is taking place. Moreover, the dialogue
\ncould lead to some effective goodwill and mutually beneficial
\ninitiatives.<\/p>\n
The two governments then wage a publicity campaign aimed at
\nthe general public in both countries to report and promote that
\nintensified dialogue.<\/p>\n
Again this will not stop the critics but at least there will
\nbe a body of good news to counterbalance the \"bad views\" being
\nexpressed. This will take some expense and the use of some
\nprofessional skills but it would be worth it.<\/p>\n
Both sides build on every little progress that is made in this
\neffort.<\/p>\n
If all goes well, it may turn out over time that there is no
\nneed for President Wahid to go to Australia to mend relations
\nwith that country. If he does go, it would be for another
\npurpose: to firm up what is already a growing, positive
\nrelationship.<\/p>\n
At any rate he keeps the option of making that visit -- to be
\nexercised when there is everything to gain and nothing to risk.<\/p>\n
The writer is a Foreign Service veteran who has been
\nIndonesian Ambassador to Athens and then to the Holy See. He has
\nalso served two terms as Director of Information of the
\nIndonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.<\/p>",
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