Short-term survival, long-term problems<\/p>\n
Wimar Witoelar, InterMatrix Communications, Jakarta<\/p>\n
The success of the state power company PLN in concluding
\nrenegotiations on the Paiton I and Paiton II steam power plant
\ndeserves high praise. It is good news for everyone. With the
\nagreement, the Java - Bali power system gained access to
\nadditional power and averted Java from a power crisis in 2004.
\nConsidering the lengthy negotiations and complications which have
\nsaddled the case for years, the agreement must be seen as a
\npolitical success of the government.<\/p>\n
However, in the other major case of international business in
\n2001, the case of PT Semen Gresik where the government decided to
\nallow their put option to expire, the government showed weakness
\nin their commitment to privatization. Knowing the background of
\nMinister for State Enterprises Laksamana Sukardi as an advocate
\nof privatization, his failure to obtain support from the
\nlegislature on his recommendation implies that the political
\nfooting of the Megawati government is not firm.<\/p>\n
Stability for the government depends on their ability to
\ninspire economic recovery. As President Megawati Soekarnoputri
\nconcentrates on short-term survival, she creates long-term
\nproblems. She may ease up on prosecution of Akbar Tandjung and
\neven Soeharto in order to maintain support from certain groups,
\nbut the wishes of the ordinary people are not reflected by those
\ngroups.<\/p>\n
They and a host of others associated with the calamitous New
\nOrder regime are precisely the reason the people rose up and
\nsupported change which is now being denied by Megawati's
\ngovernment. The Megawati government needs to be serious about
\nfighting corruption and human rights violations. She has not
\nshown an inclination to deal with these fundamental issues.
\nMegawati seems satisfied to rest on the strength of the political
\ncoalition which brought her to power.<\/p>\n
Megawati could remain in office until 2004 as long as the
\nbalance in the political elite is not upset. The problem with
\nthat attitude is that the economy will then have to sort itself
\nout without the guidance of the government. We do have less
\npressure now from the IMF and the World Bank because of the
\ncommonality of cultures among their officials of and Megawati's
\ncabinet. But it is dangerous to build on that understanding among
\nelites while failing to come to grips with the crisis which is
\nstill hounding our people.<\/p>\n
Issues of human rights and democracy no longer take top
\npriority as external pressure on those issues disappear. No
\nlonger do we see Mary Robinson of the United Nations or Madeleine
\nAlbright of the United States expound on the supremacy of human
\nrights. The world's powers are locked in to the U.S. government's
\nsingle-minded dedication to the eradication of global terrorism.
\nIndonesian human rights violators put by the previous government
\nin the prosecution pipeline for human rights abuse in East Timor,
\nAceh and other cases now breathe easier as they are not in the
\nline of fire in America's global campaign against Osama bin
\nLaden.<\/p>\n
There is real danger in the current situation because
\nMegawati's political medicine is not addressed to cure the
\nnation's real diseases. It is like using painkillers to conceal
\nan affliction which requires operation. A sudden shift in
\npolitical balance will open up a schism in the coalition of
\nspecial interests now ruling the country. Two cases having
\ntremendous potential to disrupt political stability are the
\ncorruption case known as Buloggate II involving Akbar and B.J.
\nHabibie, and further weakening of the financial markets. Wrong
\ndecisions -- including the decision to do nothing -- spell
\npolitical disaster and economic collapse.<\/p>\n
With exceptions, the media have not met their public
\nresponsibility in alerting the public to the dangers of
\ncomplacency. While the previous president constantly suffered
\npersecution by the press, his successor Megawati is
\noverprotected. Her silent style, while exasperating ordinary
\npeople, does not invite attacks from the press which former
\npresident Abdurrahman Wahid seemed to draw in virulent form. The
\npress is just starting to be critical of President Megawati and
\nher government.<\/p>\n
A current significant issue is Megawati's reconciliation with
\nleading figures of the Soeharto regime, to the point of ignoring
\ntheir human rights record. In a year-end speech to the military
\nshe even told them not to worry about human rights abuse. She
\nasked them just to be firm. Some advocacy groups such as the
\nvocal \"Petisi 50\" and the Commission for Missing Persons and
\nVictims of the Violence (Kontras) accused the Megawati
\nadministration of making deals with influential members of the
\nNew Order regime in a bid to maintain power. Many see that there
\nwill be systematic efforts to revive the culture of the
\nautocratic New Order regime.<\/p>\n
In a case of a different flavor, President Megawati drew a lot
\nof criticism for a five-day New Year junket to Bali with
\nrelatives and close friends. The personal pleasure trip using
\npresidential facilities stood out in embarrassing contrast with
\nthe austerity campaign that Megawati announced just last week.
\nMegawati's 44-strong entourage, including members of her family,
\nfriends and government officials flew to Bali for a long
\nsecretive weekend. This exposes the first family as being
\nfrivolous and not having the capacity to empathize with the
\nordinary people. In her New Year's address she tells people to
\nrelax because we are still better off than some countries.<\/p>\n
All of this leads to instability in the long term. It remains
\nto be seen whether the possibility of destabilization will be
\nanticipated by pre-emptive action on the part of some power
\ngroups. That is highly undesirable. We do not want a repeat of
\nlast year's national shame when the political elite conspired to
\noust an innocent president. The acrimony brought out the worst in
\neverybody. The Indonesian people are capable of more decency than
\ntheir political elite. But we need the government to give us some
\nreason, moral or economic, to support their safe passage to 2004.<\/p>",
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