Sept. runoff a second test for RI<\/p>\n
The Straits Times
\nAsia News Network
\nSingapore<\/p>\n
Indonesians now know the incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri,
\nand retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will go into a
\nsecond-round ballot in September to decide who shall be their
\nfirst directly elected president. She seems at a slight
\ndisadvantage; first, she trailed Susilo quite markedly in the
\nfirst-round ballot (26.6 percent against 33.6 percent), and
\nsecond, an opinion poll taken by the reliable Indonesian Survey
\nInstitute just over a week ago had Susilo as runaway favorite (68
\npercent against 23 percent).<\/p>\n
But the run-off election is eight weeks away, on Sept. 20.
\nBeyond the rough indications of voter intent shown in these sets
\nof numbers, the contest looks more open than the rivals' rallying
\ncomments to their campaign workers would suggest. Susilo was
\nasking his people to aim for at least 60 percent. The Soeharto-
\nera Golkar party which is aligned with Megawati said Susilo's
\npopularity could have peaked. With time available to make up
\nground, party chairman Akbar Tandjung showed uncommon confidence
\nwhen speaking of 'several cards' he could deal to turn the tide.<\/p>\n
This is the time when both camps have a duty to put a lid on
\npassions to prove the exemplary conduct of the first-round ballot
\nshowed maturing of a democratizing tradition. The campaign was
\nlargely free of violence. There were no incidents of voter
\nintimidation that could be ascertained, and allegations of vote-
\nbuying and ballot-stuffing were hardly raised. Turnout of 76
\npercent for voting that was not compulsory showed a high degree
\nof civic responsibility.<\/p>\n
And the fact that complaints of irregular vote counts by
\neliminated candidate Wiranto were not given much credence can be
\ntaken as confidence in the electoral process. There is some
\ndanger the hard-earned credits can get dissipated in the intense
\nlobbying that is getting into gear. The political elite and
\npeople have done themselves proud thus far; they should keep it
\nup.<\/p>\n
The coalition-building will exacerbate tensions. Golkar
\nputting its nation-wide networks at Megawati's disposal could
\ndismay those Indonesians who desire a Jakarta Spring -- a
\ncleansing of the system of patronage and protection for powerful
\nindividuals that has retarded social emancipation. This would
\ndepend on how much of a trade-off Megawati would bargain away to
\nsecure Golkar's assumed block vote.<\/p>\n
As Golkar has the most seats in parliament, a concentration of
\npresidential and parliamentary authority can be both a temptation
\nand a governing aid. Politicians will just have to learn to
\nexercise power correctly. Susilo is also said to be courting
\nGolkar and any organized entity with a substantial national
\nmembership base. His Democratic Party is a pygmy in the
\nIndonesian scheme, and that makes the horse trading he has to
\nindulge in particularly hazardous when the chips are cashed, if
\nhe wins.<\/p>\n
But research by a Jakarta consultancy, LP3ES, showing that
\nblock voting for preferred candidates in the first round was a
\nmyth will tend to question the efficacy of building alliances.
\nGolkar endorsed Wiranto, but he got only 55 percent of members'
\nvotes while Susilo captured an impressive 31 percent. Nahdlatul
\nUlama, the largest Muslim-based organization with 40 million
\nmembers, also endorsed Wiranto.<\/p>\n
But he had to share its favors with Susilo (33 percent against
\n32), while Megawati obtained 22 percent. It would be interesting
\nto see whether block booking in return for concessions gets
\ndiscredited as a political habit. If it is, the implicit free-
\nconscience voting would count as more progress in the Indonesian
\ntransition.<\/p>",
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