Seoul posts 8.8% GDP growth rate for 2000<\/p>\n
SEOUL (AFP): South Korea's economy grew 8.8 percent in 2000
\ndespite a marked slowdown in the fourth quarter, the central Bank
\nof Korea (BoK) said Tuesday.<\/p>\n
The increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) last year was
\ndown from a rate of 10.9 percent the previous year. Some analysts
\nsaid the 2000 GDP growth was slightly lower than expected.<\/p>\n
The BoK figures showed a sharp fall in growth from the fourth
\nquarter, when the GDP grew 4.6 percent year-on-year, down from
\n9.2 percent year-on-year the previous quarter.<\/p>\n
"The economy appears to have hit a peak in the third quarter
\nand began its downturn in the fourth quarter," BoK Director
\nGeneral Chung Jung-Ho said.<\/p>\n
"But the economy is expected to bounce back from the second
\nhalf of this year, if overseas factors do not further
\ndeteriorate," he said.<\/p>\n
He said stability had returned to international oil prices and
\nthat the price of semiconductors, South Korea's key exports,
\nappeared to have hit a bottom.<\/p>\n
In its last forecast made in December, the BoK predicted GDP
\ngrowth would be 5.3 percent this year.<\/p>\n
The information technology industry served as a locomotive for
\nthe economic growth, accounting for 15.3 percent of total GDP in
\n2000, up from 12.2 percent the previous year.<\/p>\n
Exports were largely driving the economy, contributing around
\n63.4 percent to the economic growth, while domestic consumption
\naccounted for 36.6 percent of the expansion.<\/p>\n
The per-capita Gross National Income, an average income for
\nevery South Korean, grew 12.6 percent to $9,628.<\/p>\n
Samsung Economic Research Institute chief researcher Hwang In-
\nSung said first quarter GDP this year was expected to post a 2.5
\npercent year-on-year growth.<\/p>\n
"The economy seems to be approaching a bottom... I expect a
\nturning point as early as in the second quarter or in the second
\nhalf," he said, citing signs of improvement in consumer and
\nbusiness confidence.<\/p>\n
For the whole of 2001 the Samsung institute expects a 4.5
\npercent growth in GDP, below the BoK's forecast of 5.3 percent.<\/p>\n
Hwang said a difficult time would lie ahead for exports
\nbecause of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, a weak Japanese yen
\nand volatile foreign exchange rates.<\/p>\n
Daishin Economic Research Institute senior economist Kwon
\nHyeuk-Boo drew a gloomier picture of the year's economic
\nprospects.<\/p>\n
"Our earlier GDP growth forecast for this year was around 4.0
\npercent but recent developments in the US and Japanese economies
\nmay bring it to a lower level than that," he said.<\/p>\n
Kwon said the first quarter was expected to grow 3.0 percent
\nyear-on-year this year or even less because of a slowdown in
\ninvestment and consumption.<\/p>\n
"If the US economy fails to achieve a soft landing, the
\nrecovery in South Korea may not come until next year," he said,
\nnoting that the United States is the biggest buyer of South
\nKorea's IT exports.<\/p>\n
The economic doldrums in Japan and the weak yen may also be a
\ndrag on South Korea's economic rebound. "A weaker yen seems
\ninevitable for a while and it is not good news for local
\nexports," he said.<\/p>",
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