The term of United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres will\nend on 31 December 2026. Amid a world increasingly characterised by\nprolonged conflicts, rivalries among major powers, and pressures on\nmultilateralism, the question of who will succeed him becomes ever more\nrelevant.<\/p>\n
More than just a leadership transition, the election of the next UN\nSecretary-General will indicate the direction in which the world is\nmoving and how far change is possible.<\/p>\n
On paper, there are no formal rules requiring geographical rotation\nin the selection of the Secretary-General. However, in practice,\nconsiderations of regional balance are almost always present as an\nunwritten norm. In this context, Latin America and the Caribbean are\noften cited as having a strong political claim.<\/p>\n
This region last held the position through Javier P\u00e9rez de Cu\u00e9llar\nfrom Peru during 1982\u20131991. With the emergence of several candidates\nfrom the region, the narrative of a \u201cLatin American turn\u201d is gaining\nstrength in diplomatic discussions.<\/p>\n
However, as with many things at the UN, what appears as a norm does\nnot always determine the outcome. Several candidates emerging so far\ndemonstrate complex and intriguing dynamics. Rafael Grossi from\nArgentina, currently serving as Director General of the International\nAtomic Energy Agency (IAEA), brings strong credentials in\nnon-proliferation and nuclear diplomacy.<\/p>\n
His experience in handling issues with Iran, North Korea, and nuclear\nfacilities in Ukraine gives him a profile as a figure familiar with\nglobal strategic crises. In the perception of some parties, he is also\nseen as relatively more \u201ccomfortable\u201d for Western countries.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Rebeca Grynspan from Costa Rica offers a different\nprofile. As Secretary-General of UNCTAD and former Vice President, she\nis known as a development economist and effective negotiator. Her role\nin supporting the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which helped stabilise\nglobal food supplies by tens of millions of tonnes, is a significant\nhighlight (UNCTAD, 2023). Grynspan represents the type of technocratic\ncandidate with UN system experience and relatively non-confrontational\u2014\na combination that often becomes an asset in sensitive selection\nprocesses.<\/p>\n
The name Michelle Bachelet from Chile presents another dimension.\nThis former two-term President and ex-UN High Commissioner for Human\nRights has widespread global recognition. However, her track record on\nhuman rights issues also raises political controversies. In particular,\nthe UN High Commissioner\u2019s Office report on the situation in Xinjiang in\n2022\u2014released towards the end of her tenure\u2014is considered by some to be\nlate and insufficiently firm in concluding the violations that\noccurred.<\/p>\n
This criticism then became one of the factors sparking resistance,\nincluding from circles in the United States, to her candidacy (Reuters,\n2026). In such dynamics, high-profile figures with great visibility are\nmore vulnerable to early rejection.<\/p>\n
Outside Latin America, Macky Sall from Senegal emerges as the only\nprominent African candidate at present. As former President of Senegal\nand Chairman of the African Union, he carries significant political\nweight. However, the lack of official support from the African Union\nmakes his position not entirely solid. In a situation where Latin\nAmerican candidates are locked in competition and none truly dominates,\nSall has the potential to emerge as a \u201cdark horse\u201d\u2014a compromise figure\nborn from the deadlock of other candidates.<\/p>\n
To understand these dynamics, it is important to see how the UN\nSecretary-General is actually selected. Formally, the Secretary-General\nis appointed by the General Assembly on the recommendation of the\nSecurity Council (UN Charter, Article 97). However, in practice, the\ndetermination process occurs through a series of closed straw polls in\nthe Security Council.<\/p>\n
In each round, Security Council members give assessments of\n\u201cencourage\u201d, \u201cdiscourage\u201d, or \u201cno opinion\u201d to candidates. As the process\nadvances, votes from the five permanent Security Council members\u2014United\nStates, Russia, China, United Kingdom, and France\u2014become decisive. A\nsingle signal of rejection from one of the permanent members is\npractically enough to end a candidate\u2019s nomination.<\/p>\n
This is where the paradox lies. On one hand, the UN is an\norganisation with universal membership. On the other, the selection of\nits highest leader is heavily influenced by the political calculations\nof five countries. Transparency has indeed increased through public\ndialogues in the General Assembly, but the actual decision remains in\nthe closed rooms of the Security Council. The UN Secretary-General\nultimately is not always the most ideal figure, but rather the one most\nacceptable\u2014or least rejected\u2014by the permanent members.<\/p>\n
The challenges facing the next Secretary-General are also not light.\nThe UN is currently under serious financial pressure. Several member\nstates are delaying payment of contributions, while funding needs for\npeacekeeping operations and humanitarian aid continue to rise. The\nSecretary-General has even warned of a potential liquidity crisis that\ncould affect the organisation\u2019s operational capabilities (Reuters,\n2026). This situation forces the UN to make significant efficiencies and\nprogramme adjustments.<\/p>\n
On top of this financial pressure, geopolitical fragmentation is\nincreasingly narrowing the UN\u2019s room for manoeuvre. Rivalries between\nmajor powers often paralyse the Security Council, thereby reducing the\norganisation\u2019s ability to respond to conflicts effectively. In this\ncontext, the UN no longer operates in an environment conducive to global\ncooperation, but in a system increasingly marked by competition and\ndistrust.<\/p>\n
In such conditions, expectations for the new Secretary-General need\nto be set realistically. The world may not need\u2014and it seems unlikely to\nproduce\u2014a transformative figure.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/searching-for-the-un-secretary-general-amidst-a-fractured-and-challenging-world-1776423079", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }