SE Asia's soymeal demand expected to surge<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (Reuter): Soymeal demand in Southeast Asia is
\nexpected to surge in the coming months as most countries in the
\nregion have not yet covered their requirements up to the end of
\nthe year and into 1997, traders said.<\/p>\n
Buyers may also scramble to beat a further jump in prices
\nafter a bullish United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
\ncrop report on Wednesday for both soybeans and meal.<\/p>\n
"There's a shortage of soymeal here. Many countries in the
\nregion are not covered for soymeal in 1997," the managing
\ndirector of a Western commodity house told Reuters Thursday.<\/p>\n
"The soymeal shortage is in the forward months. Malaysia is
\nlooking for 200,000 tons for late 1996. Thailand's requirements
\nwill be about the same and we're still calculating how much
\nIndonesia will need," one trader in Singapore said.<\/p>\n
Countries in the region are waiting for the Indian soybean
\nharvest to begin in November, but some buyers may be forced to
\nbuy small lots ahead of the crop to meet commercial needs.<\/p>\n
Indian new crop soymeal is quoted in Southeast Asia at around
\nUS$315-$320 a ton C&F for November\/December shipment, with old
\ncrop quoted at about $330-$335 a ton, Singapore-based traders
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
"A lot of people want to get their Indian soymeal soon, but it
\nwill only be available in December after harvest. Some people may
\ndecide they need the material now," another trader said.<\/p>\n
The USDA crop report was seen as positive for soybeans. It
\nsaid stocks, as of September 1, 1997, were seen dropping to 160
\nmillion bushels from the 175 million estimated last month.<\/p>\n
The U.S. soybean crop was seen reaching 2.27 billion bushels
\nagainst 2.3 billion in the report in August, the USDA said.<\/p>\n
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soymeal prices closed higher on
\nWednesday as the USDA also said U.S. ending stocks in 1997 would
\nbe down to 200,000 tons from 225,000 tons estimated last month.<\/p>\n
September CBOT soymeal rose 90 U.S. cents on the report to end
\nat $273.50 a ton.<\/p>\n
But the USDA report was seen by Southeast Asian traders as
\nneutral for corn and wheat buying in the area.<\/p>\n
The report said the U.S. corn crop should reach 8.804 billion
\nbushels versus last month's estimate of 8.695 billion bushels. It
\nsaid corn stocks on September 1, 1997 would touch 668 million
\nbushels versus 523 million previously.<\/p>\n
The report helped push down prices of corn futures on the
\nCBOT. September CBOT corn shed five U.S. cents to close on
\nWednesday at $3.60-3\/4 a bushel.<\/p>\n
Lower corn prices may trigger sporadic buying in the region,
\nbut most nations were well-covered and will be in no rush to step
\ninto the market, the traders said.<\/p>\n
Higher wheat stocks, estimated by the USDA at 506 million
\nbushels next July against an earlier figure of 409 million, also
\ncaused a slide in CBOT prices. September CBOT wheat dropped 17-
\n1\/2 cents to end at $4.44 a bushel.<\/p>\n
The grain and oilseeds business in Southeast Asia was quiet,
\nthe dealers added.<\/p>\n
"There's been no large business in the region lately. No one's
\nkeen to talk," one trader said.<\/p>\n
"The USDA report is seen here as neutral if you talk about
\nbuying intentions. I don't think it's going to change the
\nsituation here a lot. Buyers may wait awhile and see if grain
\nprices fall further before acting," a dealer in a European
\ntrading house said.<\/p>\n
Countries like Malaysia and Thailand were already well-covered
\nfor corn and the bumper harvest in Indonesia would keep supplies
\nample in the region's most populous nation, analysts said.<\/p>\n
Prices of U.S. corn in Southeast Asia were quoted in a range
\nof $170-$172 a ton C&F for October-December shipment on a Panamax
\nvessel, dealers said.<\/p>\n
One dealer said the corn price could slide to around $167-$168
\na ton C&F, reflecting lower prices in Chicago.<\/p>\n
"Several countries here have already put on reasonable
\ncoverage on the grains side so there is no incentive to come into
\nthe market at once. They'll probably take their time for things
\nto settle down," one dealer said.<\/p>\n
The price falls in the CBOT may also be temporary because of
\nreports a cold front may sweep into the U.S. corn belt and
\nconcern over the lag in the maturity of the crop, a trader said.<\/p>\n
"Many of the buyers in the region are satisfied in sitting
\nback and see how things go," one trader said.<\/p>",
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