SE Asian security at risk if insurgencies blow up<\/p>\n
P. Parameswaran, Agence France-Presse, Manila<\/p>\n
Separatist insurgences in the Philippines and Indonesia are
\nthreatening to flare up into full scale wars that could unhinge
\nSoutheast Asian security and hinder the region's battle against
\nterrorism, officials and analysts say.<\/p>\n
The Indonesian military was readying aircraft, warships and
\ntroops for an assault on Aceh province even as Japan hosted last-
\nditch talks at the weekend to avert a return to war between
\nJakarta and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM).<\/p>\n
In the Philippines, the government has given a June 1 deadline
\nto the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the country's
\nlargest Muslim separatist group, to disavow alleged terrorist
\nlinks or face the full wrath of the military.<\/p>\n
Landmark cease-fire pacts forged to end the nearly three-
\ndecade-old battles for independence in the two countries are in
\ntatters.<\/p>\n
Analysts warn that full-blown war will also further
\ninternationalize the conflicts and raise the prospect of more
\nU.S. antiterror troops entering Southeast Asia, to the chagrin of
\ngovernments and groups opposed to foreign military presence in
\nthe region.<\/p>\n
Andrew Tan, a security analyst at the Singapore-based
\nInstitute of Defense and Strategic Studies, said Indonesian
\nPresident Megawati Soekarnoputri and Philippine leader Gloria
\nArroyo could be taking advantage of the global war on terror to
\nend the separatist campaigns at home.<\/p>\n
\"There are nationalist right-wing elements in the Philippines
\nand Indonesia pressing for a military solution to the conflicts,
\nbut the repercussions of such a strategy in terms of regional
\nsecurity and stability are enormous,\" he said.<\/p>\n
He cited extensive loss of civilian lives and an influx of
\nrefugees to particularly neighboring Malaysia as among the
\nconsequences.<\/p>\n
Malaysia already houses hundreds of thousands of refugees from
\nthe southern Philippines who arrived during the height of the
\nMoro rebellion in the mid-1970s. Hundreds of Aceh refugees also
\nreside in that country.<\/p>\n
More than 10,000 people have died in the Aceh conflict while
\ntens of thousands of Filipinos had perished during the 25-year-
\nold MILF rebellion.<\/p>\n
\"We hope the Indonesian government will take the necessary
\nmeasures to prevent war or political tension in Aceh. Its
\n(Indonesia's) economic and political stability is pivotal to
\nASEAN's well-being,\" Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar
\nhas said.<\/p>\n
Aside from Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, the
\nAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises Brunei,
\nCambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.<\/p>\n
Malaysia has been acting as facilitator in peace talks between
\nthe Philippines and the MILF, but Manila last week canceled
\nfurther meetings after a series of bloody attacks by the rebels.<\/p>\n
\"We must fight back now or face greater peril in the future,\"
\nArroyo declared on Saturday as she ordered selective aerial and
\nartillery attacks on MILF hideouts.<\/p>\n
The 12,500-strong MILF wants to set up an Islamic state in the
\nsouthern third of the mainly Roman Catholic Philippine
\narchipelago, while the 5,000-odd GAM has been fighting for
\nindependence in energy-rich Aceh in northwestern Sumatra island.<\/p>\n
If the conflicts, which had been largely contained of late,
\nflared up into full blown wars, they would open the doors for
\ngreater American military presence and complicate the region's
\nbattle against terrorism, said Clarita Carlos, political science
\nprofessor at the University of the Philippines.<\/p>\n
\"President George Bush has already declared that his
\ngovernment would hunt down terrorists no matter where they are if
\nthe governments concerned do not do enough to contain them,\" she
\nnoted.<\/p>\n
\"So if the conflicts blow up, they would be like midwivery to
\nmore terrorism in the region,\" Carlos said, blaming \"lack of
\nbasic trust and goodwill\" for the dual problems. \"War is a
\nfailure of diplomacy.\"<\/p>\n
For more than a year, U.S. troops have been helping the
\nPhilippine military battle the Abu Sayyaf kidnap-for-ransom
\ngroup, branded terrorists by both governments.<\/p>\n
Carlos said Washington might train its guns on the MILF if
\nArroyo went ahead with her threat to brand the separatist group a
\nterrorist organization after the June 1 deadline.<\/p>\n
The MILF has been linked to the Jamaah Islamiyah (JI), the
\nSoutheast Asian chapter of Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network.<\/p>\n
Tan believed Megawati could also tag the Aceh rebels as
\nterrorists to cut off GAM's key links in Europe although he said
\nthere are \"no proven links\" between GAM and al-Qaeda.<\/p>\n
He said even if the military prevailed in an all-out conflict
\nin Indonesia and the Philippines, \"the underlying resentment
\nagainst the central governments will not dissipate and will only
\nengender more problems in the future.\"<\/p>",
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