Scientist warns about drought, rupiah problems<\/p>\n
YOGYAKARTA (JP): This year's prolonged drought, which
\ncoincides with the rupiah's sharp decline in value, is a serious
\nnational problem that may lead to dangerous ramifications if it
\ndoes not end by the end of the year, a sociologist says.<\/p>\n
The head of the Center for Rural and Regional Development
\nStudies of Gadjah Mada University, Loekman Soetrisno, said the
\ndrought may eventually force the government to import rice and
\ncorn. That means that a huge amount of foreign exchange will be
\nneeded, he said in a seminar here yesterday.<\/p>\n
\"The rupiah's decline can be seen as the decline of the
\ngovernment's capability to import foodstuff for both people and
\ncattle. If this happens, the political and economic consequences
\nwill be difficult (to bear),\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"Experience has shown that once Indonesia and China start
\nimporting rice, the international price usually goes up
\ndramatically and immediately,\" he added.<\/p>\n
The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency predicts that this
\nyear's drought will end sometime in November or December, meaning
\nthat it will have lasted for eight months.<\/p>\n
The current dry season has caused significant damage. Some
\n300,000 hectares of forest in Kalimantan and Sumatra have been
\nburned, thousands of hectares of crops have been destroyed, and
\nmany villages have suffered from a shortage of clean water.<\/p>\n
If the drought lasts for eight months, it means that farmers
\nwould lose two consecutive harvests, affecting their food supply
\nand forcing them to be dependent on the market, Loekman pointed
\nout.<\/p>\n
\"The consequences would be serious because poor farmers don't
\nhave enough cash to buy food. They would then subsist by lowering
\nthe quality of food and changing consumption patterns,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Substitution<\/p>\n
\"They would substitute rice with tiwul (foodstuff made of
\ncassava), and if the drought lasts longer they would start
\nconsuming even poorer quality food like gogik (also made of
\ncassava),\" Loekman said.<\/p>\n
The next strategy would be for them to leave their villages to
\nseek employment in cities, he said. \"That option would, however,
\ninvolve other problems because the rupiah's decline restricts
\neconomic activities in urban centers, so villagers would have a
\ndifficult time finding jobs,\" he said.<\/p>\n
He cited other consequences such as an increase in crime.<\/p>\n
The rupiah's decline and the prolonged drought became
\nextraordinary problems because they occurred when Indonesia's
\neconomic and social foundation was unstable, he said.<\/p>\n
Riots which saw churches and police stations burned down were
\nexamples of the impact of weak economic and social fundamentals,
\nhe added.<\/p>\n
Loekman said Indonesia needed alternatives to solve the
\nproblems, and said universities could help the government study
\nthe situation objectively.<\/p>\n
He conceded, however, that \"good solutions based on objective
\nanalyses\" could not always be applied due to political
\nconsiderations. (swa)<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/scientist-warns-about-drought-rupiah-problems-1447893297",
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