Saddam Hussein's fort is cracking<\/p>\n
By Riza Sihbudi<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Saddam Hussein's grip on power, which apparently
\nwas as solid as ever following the 1991 attack by the Allied
\ncoalition forces, now seems to be crumbling. The indication comes
\nfrom the defection of his two sons-in-law Kamel Hassan and Saddam
\nKemal Hassan and their families and supporters, who obtained
\npolitical asylum in Jordan recently.<\/p>\n
The split in the leader's family circle and regime is not a
\nstrange thing. In the last four months Saddam has dismissed two
\nfamily members: the interior minister Watban Ibrahim al-Hassan
\nand defense minister Ali Hassan al-Majeed.<\/p>\n
However, presidential guard chief Hussein Kamel's defection
\nwas dramatic because he was one of Iraq's \"strong men\" who have
\nextensive knowledge of the armament program developed by Baghdad.
\nIt was not surprising that his defection was welcomed
\nenthusiastically by Iraq's political opponents, especially the
\nU.S. This is visible by the escalation of U.S. military presence
\nin the Persian Gulf and its vicinity, with the pretext of
\n\"protecting\" Jordan and Kuwait from possible attacks by Iraq.<\/p>\n
The question now is, what is the implication of the defections
\nwith regard to the future of Saddam Hussein's power?<\/p>\n
The Ba'th Socialist Party started taking control of power in
\nIraq in 1968. The Ba'th, established in Damascus (Syria) in 1947,
\nwas the first political organization in Arab territory to put the
\nprinciples of Pan-Arabism, Socialism, and national freedom on the
\npolitical agenda of the Arab world.<\/p>\n
In international matters, the Ba'th underlines a positive
\nneutralism concept, marked by three aspects: (1) liberalization
\nfrom foreign imperialism and domination; (2) subject to neither
\nsides involved in the cold war; (3) connection of the Arab
\nrevolution with the liberation revolutions in Asian and African
\ncountries; (4) Arab participation in the efforts to alleviate
\ntensions in the world and create international peace.<\/p>\n
However, between 1980 and 1988, Iraq itself was involved in a
\nwar with its neighbor Iran. This war drained the energy and
\nresources of both Iraq and Iran. Both countries also suffered
\nheavy human losses. And from 1990 to 1991, Iraq was involved in
\nthe Kuwait crisis and war.<\/p>\n
The main foreign exchange earning for Iraq is oil. In the
\n1970s Iraq was the second biggest oil producer -- after Saudi
\nArabia -- in the Arab world. Towards 1980 Iraq's oil production
\nwas 3.4 million barrels per day, which contributed US$21 billion
\nto the state budget. But the two wars experienced by Iraq have
\nreduced its oil production. Even now, Iraq is still under a
\nUnited Nations sanction which does not allow Iraq to sell its oil
\nto the international market.<\/p>\n
The current policy of the Iraqi government with regard to main
\npriorities, especially after the ending of the Kuwait crisis and
\nGulf War, is the reconstruction of the socio-economic
\ninfrastructure which was heavily damaged as a result of the
\nAllied bombing during the war. However, the policy faces big
\nobstacles with the UN economic sanctions and embargo still in
\nforce. As a result, Iraq is not capable as yet to reinstate its
\neconomic condition.<\/p>\n
Therefore, by various means, Baghdad is making tremendous
\nefforts to have the embargo and sanctions revoked. Besides, of
\ncourse, continuing to make economic transactions with countries
\nwhich show no enmity towards Baghdad. With all the limitations,
\nBaghdad is still capable of reconstructing a number of buildings
\nand infrastructure which were heavily damaged. Therefore, Baghdad
\nstill rejects Resolution No.986 by the United Nations Security
\nCouncil (April 1995) which only allows Iraq to sell its oil in a
\nlimited way.<\/p>\n
The defection of Saddam's sons-in-law has bolstered Iraq's
\nenemies who had previously watched Baghdad's endurance under UN
\nintimidation. However, the defections will not automatically
\nbring Saddam's power down.<\/p>\n
The defections may very well be hard, but it is not a fatal
\nblow to Saddam. First, the resilience of Saddam's power has often
\nbeen tested against attacks from both outside and inside, as well
\nas from a combination of both. With a leader of Saddam's type,
\nthe occurrence of a defection usually further strengthens the
\nleader's power. Although increased mutual distrust in the
\npolitical elite circles can not be ruled out.<\/p>\n
Second, Industry Minister Kamel Hassan's defection did not
\nmeet with a positive response from Iraq's opposition in exile.
\nThis is clearly seen from the statement issued by the anti-Saddam
\nIraqi Syi'ah group based in Teheran. The group, under the
\nleadership of Muhammad Baqer Hakeem said that they do not
\n\"intend\" to form a coalition with Kamel.<\/p>\n
For Hakeem and his followers, Kamel belongs to the group that
\nis also responsible for the slaughtering launched by the Saddam
\nregime (since he assumed power in July 1979) against the Syi'ah,
\nincluding their charismatic leader Ayatullah Baqer Sadr. A cool
\nreaction was also shown by the Kurdish-Iraqi group and other
\nopposition groups in exile. As it is known, one of the main
\nfailures of the Iraqi opposition members in their efforts to
\nbring Saddam down, is the difficulty to unify the groups which
\nhave indeed various ideological backgrounds or political
\ninterests.<\/p>\n
Finally, but not less importantly, is the dilemma faced by the
\nU.S. and its allies in viewing the position of Saddam's power. On
\nthe one hand they seem to want Saddam's downfall. On the other,
\nthey have not found the right figure to replace Saddam. For the
\nIraqi opposition groups in exile, the West is indeed not serious
\nin its efforts to bring Saddam down. The proof is that the West
\nalways refuses to supply them armament.<\/p>\n
Apparently Iranian international relations expert Dr. Mohammad
\nJavad Larijani was right when he said four years ago that the
\nWest actually still needs a figure like Saddam, who can be used
\nas a \"monster\" to instill fear into the oil-rich Arab monarchies
\nin the Gulf region so they continue seeking protection under the
\numbrella of the U.S. and its allies. In other words, instead of
\nchoosing an Iraq without Saddam, they prefer a \"toothless\"
\nSaddam.<\/p>\n
The writer is a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of
\nSciences.<\/p>\n
Window: For the Iraqi opposition groups in exile, the West is indeed
\nnot serious in its efforts to bring Saddam down.<\/p>",
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