SAARC's future: Bad precedents, but there are hopeful signs<\/p>\n
Parmanand, South Asian Studies Foundation, New Delhi, The Statesman,
\nAsia News Network, Calcutta<\/p>\n
No SAARCC summit had been held amidst so much controversy or,
\nfor that matter, against such a controversial background. Some
\nanalysts feel that the very fact that the 11th summit could be
\nheld should be considered a big achievement.<\/p>\n
When the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
\n(SAARC) emerged on Dec. 8, 1985 in Dhaka, South Asians thought
\nbetter days had begun for the region. But 13 years later, SAARC's
\nmost important states India and Pakistan, went nuclear,
\nsuggesting that bilateral confrontation was not of the past.<\/p>\n
In any case, SAARC remains far behind regional bodies like the
\nEuropean Union or ASEAN or even the Arab League.<\/p>\n
The circumstances under which the Kathmandu summit in early
\nJanuary was held had all the potential for setting bad
\nprecedents. For the first time, the duration was curtailed at the
\neleventh hour. Instead of being held for three days as scheduled,
\nit was held only for two days.<\/p>\n
No summit's duration had been tampered with at the last
\nmoment.<\/p>\n
In any case, it was the first opportunity for Musharraf to
\nparticipate in any SAARC summit, and he failed to give a good
\naccount of himself.<\/p>\n
The Kathmandu summit also saw the mechanism of a retreat being
\ndone away with. The device of a retreat had become very useful
\nsince it provided a good opportunity for informal get-togethers
\nof heads of state or government in a relaxed atmosphere. It
\nshould again be hoped that this is not repeated.<\/p>\n
The background against which the Kathmandu summit was held had
\nhardly left any doubt that there would be a great deal of stress
\non the eradication of terrorism in the region in the Kathmandu
\nDeclaration. Relevantly, every summit finally produces a
\ndeclaration. It is no coincidence that three South Asian states
\n-- the core state, India, the host state, Nepal, and the southern
\nstate, Sri Lanka -- are facing serious challenges from various
\nterrorist outfits.<\/p>\n
In the case of Nepal, the very political system is the target.
\nMaoist guerrillas have been harping on the abolition of the
\nconstitutional monarchy and the establishment of a republic. At
\nmost they were ready to settle for a constituent assembly to
\ndraft a new constitution, quite hopeful that such an assembly
\nwould recommend abolition of the constitutional monarchical
\nframework. In the case of Sri Lanka, the very existence of the
\nstate is threatened by the demand of the Tamil Eelam (homeland).
\nThe Indian state -- the most democratic and resource-rich of all
\nSouth Asian states -- is faced with terrorist challenges on a
\nnumber of fronts.<\/p>\n
Hearteningly, India's initiative in making fight against
\nterrorism a priority issue in the Kathmandu Declaration did not
\nmeet with any opposition. In fact, Pakistan did not indulge in
\nhair-splitting by differentiating between what it calls \"freedom
\nfighters\" and terrorists. Not only consensus but unanimity was
\nvisible on this issue at the meetings of the Council of Ministers
\nand the standing committee (comprising foreign secretaries) that
\npreceded the Kathmandu summit.<\/p>\n
Five full paragraphs were devoted to the problem of terrorism
\nin the Declaration issued on Jan. 6. The heads of state or
\ngovernment have \"affirmed their determination to redouble
\nefforts, collectively as well as individually, to prevent and
\nsuppress terrorism in all its forms and manifestations\".<\/p>\n
The seven South Asian leaders also promised to \"accelerate\"
\nthe \"full implementation\" of the 1987 SAARC Convention on
\nTerrorism \"within a definite time-frame.\"<\/p>\n
Coincidentally or ironically, the 1987 Convention on
\nSuppression of Terrorism was adopted at the Kathmandu summit of
\nSAARC -- the first in Nepal. It was stressed by the then Sri
\nLankan President, Junius Richard Jayewardene, that terrorist
\nactivities of the LTTE had become quite painful.<\/p>\n
The IPKF was facing a difficult task in Sri Lanka.
\nRepresentatives of SAARC member-states would meet at Colombo to
\nmake suggestions to make the Convention on Terrorism more
\neffective and result-oriented. Terrorism might not end because of
\nrhetoric but there never was so much consensus on the importance
\nof its eradication. Will it see the South Asian region more
\npeaceful in the new millennium?<\/p>\n
Needless to stress, economic cooperation has been the most
\nsignificant thrust of the SAARC's Charter adopted in 1985. Among
\nthe objectives mentioned in Article 1 of the Charter are
\npromotion of the welfare of the South Asian people, acceleration
\nof economic growth, social progress and promotion of active
\ncollaboration and mutual assistance in the economic, social,
\ncultural, technical and scientific fields.<\/p>\n
The situation on this front, though, is far from satisfactory.
\nIntra-SAARC exports thus far have reached the figures of only 4.3
\nper cent. Intra-SAARC imports have by now reached only the figure
\nof four per cent of the total imports. This despite several
\nconcessions having been given under the Sapta -- which has been
\neffective since 1995.<\/p>\n
It is worth mentioning that the intra-regional exports share
\nhave reached 22 per cent in ASEAN, 51 per cent in the NAFTA and
\n64 per cent in the EU. Also, intra-regional imports are on the
\nincrease in other regional arrangements.<\/p>\n
Serious efforts seems to have been made to make the South
\nAsian Free Trade Area a concrete reality by the end of this year
\nas also to make the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement
\nmore effective and beneficial. SAARC leaders have directed the
\nCouncil of Ministers to expedite the next round of trade
\nnegotiations under Sapta and also broaden its scope. The leaders
\nalso decided to accelerate cooperation in the core areas of
\ntrade, finance and investment to realize the goal of an
\nintegrated South Asian economy.<\/p>\n
The overall impact of the declaration will be felt when
\ndetails are worked out and translated into reality. But many fail
\nto be optimistic about SAARC in its present form because of Indo-
\nPakistan relations. But the overall framework may lead to more
\nsub-regional cooperation under the core leadership of India. If
\neconomic relations between India and Bhutan, India and Nepal, and
\nIndia and Sri Lanka are any guide, a beginning has already been
\nmade in that direction.<\/p>",
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