Rupiah to ease slightly by year-end, says poll<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (Reuter): The Indonesian rupiah is expected to
\ndecline slightly by the year-end with a Reuter poll of 12
\nanalysts and foreign exchange dealers in Jakarta and Singapore
\nproducing a median prediction of 2,965 to the dollar.<\/p>\n
At 0530 GMT the rupiah was quoted was quoted at 2,890\/2,910.<\/p>\n
The poll was conducted on a non-attributable basis as traders
\nand economists have become increasingly reluctant to provide
\nforecasts on the record after Malaysia's threats that it could
\nuse harsh security laws to silence critics of its economic
\npolicy.<\/p>\n
Most of the those polled expected the rupiah to range between
\n2,900 to 3,000 to the dollar, but the median result of the poll
\ndoes not include the highest estimate of 3,400 or the lowest of
\n2,725.<\/p>\n
When these estimates are included, the poll produced an
\naverage expectation of 2,995 to the dollar.<\/p>\n
\"I think the rupiah at 2,900 level should be reasonable by the
\nend of the year, considering the fact that we are heading for a
\nPresidential election,\" one U.S foreign bank dealer in Jakarta
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
He said although people did not expect any surprise from the
\nelection, but there could be some anticipation.<\/p>\n
\"Otherwise if things are calm, the rupiah could strengthen
\nfurther. Others have even higher expectation for the rupiah.\"<\/p>\n
Another American bank dealer said he expected the rupiah to
\nrange around 2,950\/3,000 by year-end because of possible profit-
\ntaking from long rupiah positions.<\/p>\n
\"Historically the underlying tone on dollars is a bit bullish
\nat year-end,\" the dealer said.<\/p>\n
\"Offshore parties are gradually establishing long outright
\npositions now which I expect to be partially liquidated at year-
\nend to show their performances,\" the dealer added.<\/p>\n
\"I think the level between 2,950 and 3,000 should be a good
\nlevel at year-end,\" the dealer added.<\/p>\n
A trader at a European firm in Singapore said he thought a
\nlevel around 3,000 was realistic.<\/p>\n
\"The region will obviously remain highly nervous and
\ncurrencies will be prone to test the downside,\" he said.<\/p>\n
\"But Indonesia still offers investors a highly attractive
\nyield and I think that'll help underpin the currency,\" he said.<\/p>\n
However, the exotic currency trader at a European bank who
\nforecast the rupiah would fall to 3,400 by the year-end was not
\nso optimistic.<\/p>\n
\"It's not over for Southeast Asia yet by any means. I reckon
\nwe'll have a period of consolidation and then the regionals --
\nnot just the rupiah -- will start heading south again,\" he said.<\/p>\n
The central bank effectively floated the rupiah on Aug. 14
\nafter removing its intervention band, the parameters outside of
\nwhich it had intervened in the market. The rupiah has hit several
\nhistoric lows against the dollar since then, most recently 3,070
\non Aug. 29.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/rupiah-to-ease-slightly-by-year-end-says-poll-1447893297",
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