Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The rupiah exchange rate opened weaker\nagainst the US dollar on the final trading day of the week, Friday\n(8\/5\/2026).<\/p>\n
According to Refinitiv data, the Garuda currency began Friday\nmorning\u2019s trading in the red, down 0.06% to Rp17,340\/US$.<\/p>\n
This weakening followed Thursday\u2019s (7\/5\/2026) close, where the rupiah\nstrengthened 0.29% to Rp17,330\/US$.<\/p>\n
Although it has returned to below Rp17,400\/US$ after early-week\npressures, several economists believe the rupiah faces ongoing\ndepreciation risks into Q2-2026.<\/p>\n
Head of Macro Economic and Market Research at Permata Bank, Faisal\nRachman, explained that besides high global uncertainty and rising\nrisk-off sentiment in financial markets, the current rupiah weakening is\nalso influenced by seasonal factors, namely increased payments of\ndomestic financial assets to non-resident investors, boosting US dollar\ndemand.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Q2 2026, there is indeed a seasonal pattern of payments for\nreturns on domestic financial assets to non-residents, leading to rupiah\nweakening,\u201d Faisal told CNBC Indonesia, quoted Friday (8\/5\/2026).<\/p>\n
On the other hand, lingering global uncertainties continue to haunt\nthe rupiah, increasing risk-off sentiment.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, Faisal assesses that the depreciation pressure on the\nrupiah remains relatively contained, with the likelihood of breaching\nRp18,000\/US$ not too high.<\/p>\n
\u201cDepreciation pressure is likely to continue, but I think the rupiah\nwill still manage to stay below Rp18,000,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In agreement, Global Markets Economist at Maybank Indonesia, Myrdal\nGunarto, explained that the room for rupiah weakening is currently\nlimited because capital outflow pressures are no longer as severe as\nearlier in the year.<\/p>\n
This is because foreign investors have already largely exited the\ndomestic stock market from January to March 2026. Therefore, the\npotential for further outflows is deemed not to be too significant.<\/p>\n
\u201cBecause of foreign exchange demand. Even if there is capital outflow\nin the stock market, I think the pressure is not as great as in the\nearly part of this year, so even if there are outflows in the stock\nmarket or the government bond market, the impact won\u2019t be as large as in\nJanuary, February, or March,\u201d Myrdal told CNBC Indonesia, quoted Friday\n(8\/5\/2026).<\/p>\n
Additionally, Bank Indonesia is considered to still have sufficient\ncapacity to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability through\ninterventions in the foreign exchange market and the government bond\nmarket.<\/p>\n
Myrdal added that foreign investor interest in Indonesian government\nbonds remains quite high, especially when the yield on Government Bonds\n(SUN) rises close to the state budget assumption of 6.9%.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen the yield approaches our state budget yield assumption of 6.9%,\nforeign investors immediately enter, so I think the impact from hot\nmoney outflows is starting to be limited,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Previously, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo explained that the\nrupiah weakening is a global factor due to rising geopolitical tensions\ntriggering soaring oil prices, pressure from US interest rates, and a\n4.41% increase in the dollar index (DXY).<\/p>\n
This condition has triggered fund outflows from all countries,\nincluding emerging markets.<\/p>\n
He conveyed this during the Financial System Stability Committee\n(KSSK) press conference on Thursday (7\/5\/2026).<\/p>\n
Amid these dynamics, dollar demand in Indonesia is high in April to\nMay, in line with the Hajj season, as well as dividend repatriation and\nexternal debt payments.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe global conditions are like that, and coincidentally, seasonally\nin April-May, foreign exchange demand is high for us to pray that the\numrah-Hajj community is healthy and successful, and to ensure dollar\nneeds are met in April-May because corporations have a lot of dividend\nrepatriation and external debt payments,\u201d said Perry.<\/p>\n
\u201cIndeed, the conditions are such, BI is all out to protect the\nrupiah, with close coordination with the government and full support\nfrom the President,\u201d Perry emphasised.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/rupiah-remains-under-threat-but-dollar-unlikely-to-push-to-rp18-000-us-1778219583", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }