{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1644954,
        "msgid": "rupiah-potentially-weakens-to-rp-17-040-per-us-dollar-here-are-the-culprits-1774918337",
        "date": "2026-03-31 07:09:30",
        "title": "Rupiah Potentially Weakens to Rp 17,040 per US Dollar, Here Are the Culprits",
        "author": "Aprillia Ika",
        "source": "KOMPAS",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Economy",
        "summary": "The Indonesian rupiah is projected to weaken further to between Rp 17,000 and Rp 17,040 per US dollar amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on Israel and potential escalations involving Iran, as well as deteriorating US consumer sentiment. Domestically, fiscal pressures from energy subsidies, rising debt interest costs, and the need for budget efficiency are exacerbating the currency's depreciation. Analysts urge the government to pair budget efficiency measures with revenue enhancement and outcome-based spending reprioritisation to sustainably manage the state budget deficit.",
        "content": "<p>The rupiah exchange rate is expected to weaken again during trading\non Tuesday (31\/3\/2026), after the Garuda currency closed depreciated at\nRp 17,002 per US dollar on Monday. Currency and Commodities Analyst,\nIbrahim Assuaibi, projects the rupiah\u2019s movement to be fluctuating but\npotentially closing weaker in the range of Rp 17,000 to Rp 17,040 per US\ndollar. \u201cFor tomorrow\u2019s trading (Tuesday), the rupiah will be\nfluctuating but close weaker in the range of Rp 17,000 - Rp 17,040 (per\nUS dollar),\u201d said Ibrahim to reporters on Monday afternoon. According to\nhim, the market is still gripped by concerns over the potential\nescalation of the Iran conflict following attacks by the Tehran-backed\nHouthi group based in Yemen against Israel over the weekend. These\nattacks are seen as potentially opening a new front in the Middle East\nconflict, particularly because the Houthi group has the capability to\ndisrupt strategic shipping lanes in the Red Sea, which is one of the\nimportant global trade routes. \u201cThe market remains vigilant against the\npotential escalation of the Iran war after the Houthi group based in\nYemen, supported by Iran, attacked Israel over the weekend. The Houthi\ngroup could open a new front in the war, given their ability to launch\nattacks in the Red Sea,\u201d he explained. \u201cTrump last week extended the\ndeadline for attacks on Iran\u2019s energy infrastructure until early April.\nIran has largely rejected the idea of direct talks with the US since the\nwar began at the end of February,\u201d Ibrahim continued. On the economic\ndata front, market sentiment is also pressured by the worsening consumer\nconfidence in the United States. University of Michigan data shows the\nConsumer Sentiment Index for March fell from 55.5 to 53.3, below market\nexpectations. In addition, short-term inflation expectations rose from\n3.4 percent to 3.8 percent, reflecting concerns over persistent high\nprice pressures, particularly due to rising energy prices. These\nexternal pressures are further weighing on the rupiah\u2019s movement,\nespecially amid domestic conditions that also face fiscal challenges.\nFrom the internal side, Ibrahim assesses that the government\u2019s plan to\nimplement budget efficiency needs to be balanced with other policies to\neffectively keep the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) deficit\nin check. He views the current fiscal pressures as structural, stemming\nfrom energy subsidies, rising debt interest costs, and priority spending\nneeds. Therefore, budget efficiency policies cannot stand alone to keep\nthe deficit under control, requiring a combination of policies.\nMoreover, even absorption of the budget throughout the year is an\nimportant factor. If efficiency only results in savings without\nincreasing economic output, the impact could be contractionary. For this\nreason, the government needs to combine efficiency policies with\nincreasing state revenues, outcome-based spending reprioritisation, and\ncredible financing management. Without such steps, budget efficiency is\nseen as only a short-term solution, while pressure on the deficit could\nincrease in the second half of the year.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/rupiah-potentially-weakens-to-rp-17-040-per-us-dollar-here-are-the-culprits-1774918337",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}