The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar has persisted above\nthe Rp 18,000 level over the past week. The currency\u2019s fluctuation comes\namid a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East between the\nUnited States and Iran, following a period of \u2018illusory peace\u2019.<\/p>\n
The rupiah breached the Rp 18,000 mark on Wednesday (8\/7\/2026),\nprecisely at Rp 18,005 per US dollar. This depreciation occurred in the\nwake of a US military strike on Iran, which was a response to Iranian\nattacks on three US commercial vessels transiting the Strait of\nHormuz.<\/p>\n
A week later, on Wednesday (15\/7\/2026), the rupiah remained above\nthis psychological threshold. Quoting Bloomberg, the Garuda currency\nstrengthened by 23 points, or 0.13 percent, to Rp 18,068 per US\ndollar.<\/p>\n
Currency and Commodities Observer Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that\nseveral sentiments, both external and internal, are influencing the\nrupiah\u2019s fluctuations.<\/p>\n
Externally, the dynamics of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle\nEast remain the strongest sentiment. US President Donald Trump\nreportedly re-imposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports. Meanwhile,\nIran launched retaliatory strikes against US infrastructure in the\nregion.<\/p>\n
Tehran declared it was again closing the Strait of Hormuz after\nhostilities with the US reignited last week. This situation further\nundermines the ceasefire reached in June 2026 after several months of\nfighting.<\/p>\n
The Iranian military stated on Wednesday morning that it had launched\na drone strike against US positions at Azraq Base in Jordan. There has\nbeen no official comment from the Pentagon. Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary\nGuard Corps was also reported to have targeted weapons and storage\nfacilities in Bahrain and Kuwait.<\/p>\n
\u2018The rise in tensions in recent days has increased doubts that the\nmemorandum of understanding signed last month will lead to a permanent\nend to the war that has plagued Iran\u2019s neighbouring countries,\u2019 Ibrahim\nsaid.<\/p>\n
Beyond geopolitical sentiment, US economic data and interest rate\npolicy expectations are also factors influencing exchange rate\nmovements. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2026 was recorded\nas having fallen from 4.2 percent to 3.5 percent year-on-year (yoy),\nlower than the forecast of 3.8 percent.<\/p>\n
\u2018This is an indication that an aggressive interest rate hike by the\nFed is not currently necessary,\u2019 he stated.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, core inflation fell from 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent. This\nfigure was also lower than the estimate of 2.8 percent.<\/p>\n
\u2018Market participants are reducing bets on a Fed rate hike. According\nto the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike in July fell to\n16 percent from 40 percent, while the chance of a rate hike in September\ndropped to 60 percent from 74 percent,\u2019 he explained.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/rupiah-persists-above-rp-18-000-per-us-dollar-for-a-week-1784119973", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }