{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1581801,
        "msgid": "risk-of-strait-of-hormuz-closure-casts-shadow-over-state-budget-1772459921",
        "date": "2026-03-02 18:52:09",
        "title": "Risk of Strait of Hormuz Closure Casts Shadow Over State Budget",
        "author": "Gita Amanda",
        "source": "REPUBLIKA",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Finance",
        "summary": "Escalating Middle East tensions and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose direct risks to Indonesia's state budget (APBN) through volatility in commodity prices and energy subsidy pressures. Whilst higher prices for export commodities such as coal, palm oil, and nickel could generate additional government revenue, these gains may be offset by rising energy costs and inflation pressures. The government maintains its commitment to keeping the fiscal deficit below 3 percent of GDP whilst coordinating with monetary authorities to mitigate potential economic risks.",
        "content": "<p>JAKARTA \u2014 Rising tensions in the Middle East have raised fresh\nconcerns about global energy distribution routes. Of particular concern\nis the risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the strategically\ncritical shipping lane for global oil transport. The Government assesses\nthat this situation could have direct implications for Indonesia\u2019s State\nBudget (APBN).<\/p>\n<p>Deni Surjantoro, Head of the Communications and Information Service\nBureau of the Ministry of Finance, said the escalation of regional\nconflict could potentially trigger increases in commodity prices,\nincluding Indonesian crude oil (ICP), coal, crude palm oil (CPO), and\nnickel. \u201cThe Middle East conflict has the potential to impact commodity\nprice increases, inflationary pressure, exchange rate fluctuations, and\ninterest rates, as well as economic activity in specific sectors,\u201d Deni\nsaid in a brief statement on Monday (2 March 2026).<\/p>\n<p>If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, global oil prices could spike\nsignificantly. The effects would extend beyond global markets to the\ndomestic economy, particularly affecting energy subsidy burdens. Rising\noil prices risk increasing state spending pressures to maintain\naffordable fuel and electricity prices for the public.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the Government sees a positive side to rising prices\nfor major export commodities. Coal, CPO, and nickel, whose prices are\nbeing driven upward, could potentially generate additional government\nrevenue or windfall gains. However, such additional revenue must be\nbalanced against potential surges in energy expenditure.<\/p>\n<p>From a trade perspective, the direct impact of the conflict is\nassessed as relatively limited. Indonesia\u2019s export value to Gulf nations\nstands at approximately 8.7 billion US dollars, substantially smaller\nthan total national exports approaching 300 billion US dollars. \u201cThe\nimpact on exports is relatively limited, though the risk of Strait of\nHormuz closure remains a concern requiring vigilance,\u201d Deni said.<\/p>\n<p>The Government has reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the APBN\ndeficit at a controlled level below 3 percent of gross domestic product\n(GDP). Fiscal stability is viewed as essential to ensure priority\nprogrammes continue and public purchasing power is not disrupted.<\/p>\n<p>Going forward, the Government will continue coordinating with\nmonetary authorities and the financial sector to mitigate various\npotential risks. For the public, the most tangible concern is how the\nnation safeguards energy prices and economic stability amid ongoing\nglobal turbulence.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/risk-of-strait-of-hormuz-closure-casts-shadow-over-state-budget-1772459921",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}