{
    "success": true,
    "data": {
        "id": 1656475,
        "msgid": "rising-energy-prices-risk-trimming-vietnams-economic-growth-1775656330",
        "date": "2026-04-05 13:13:00",
        "title": "Rising Energy Prices Risk Trimming Vietnam's Economic Growth",
        "author": "Sakina Rakhma Diah Setiawan",
        "source": "KOMPAS",
        "tags": "",
        "topic": "Economy",
        "summary": "Vietnam's economy entered 2026 on a solid foundation but faces mounting global pressures, with GDP growth slowing to 7.83% in the first quarter from 8.46% in the previous quarter, primarily due to rising production input and energy costs. Exports surged by 19.1% and retail sales grew 10.9%, yet inflation is emerging as a concern, with the consumer price index rising 4.65% in March driven by over 10% increases in transportation costs. Analysts warn that without decisive policy measures, global energy price hikes\u2014such as Brent crude rising 25% to around $87 per barrel\u2014could push inflation to 5-5.5%, significantly impacting the economy through higher production costs in agriculture and potential food price surges.",
        "content": "<p>HANOI, KOMPAS.com - Vietnam\u2019s economy entered 2026 with a relatively\nsolid foundation, yet overshadowed by intensifying global pressures.<\/p>\n<p>The latest data shows that Vietnam\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP) in\nthe first quarter of 2026 grew 7.83% year-on-year, slowing from the\n8.46% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n<p>This slowdown occurred amid rising cost pressures, particularly in\nthe energy sector. Increases in production input and energy prices are\ncited as the main factors curbing economic expansion at the start of the\nyear.<\/p>\n<p>Several supporting indicators still show strong performance.\nVietnam\u2019s exports in the first quarter of 2026 were recorded to have\nincreased by 19.1%, while retail sales grew 10.9% year-on-year.<\/p>\n<p>However, inflationary pressures are beginning to appear, with the\nconsumer price index (CPI) in March 2026 rising 4.65%, driven by a surge\nin transportation costs that increased by more than 10%.<\/p>\n<p>In this context, VinaCapital\u2019s Chief Economist Michael Kokalari\nassesses that without firm policy measures, the pressure from rising\nenergy prices could have a significant impact on Vietnam\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n<p>The main pressure stems from global energy price increases. Brent\ncrude oil prices are projected to rise by around 25%, from $70 in 2025\nto approximately $87 per barrel in 2026, equivalent to about Rp 1.48\nmillion per barrel (assuming an exchange rate of Rp 16,994 per US\ndollar).<\/p>\n<p>This increase is a key factor driving inflation. Projections indicate\nthat Vietnam\u2019s inflation could rise from around 3.5% in 2025 to 5 to\n5.5% in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>According to Kokalari, the impact of rising oil prices on inflation\nin Vietnam is quite significant. Every 10% increase in oil prices can\ndrive inflation by about 0.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to energy, prices of other commodities such as\nfertilisers are also rising. This situation increases production costs\nin the agricultural sector and could lead to rises in food prices.<\/p>\n<p>In recent years, food inflation pressures were held back by China\u2019s\nweak economy, but now the risks are increasing along with the potential\nfor commodity hoarding.<\/p>",
        "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/rising-energy-prices-risk-trimming-vietnams-economic-growth-1775656330",
        "image": ""
    },
    "sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
    "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}