The threat of rice shortages and price increases is predicted to\ncontinue haunting North Sumatra until the first quarter of 2027.\nAlthough the peak rice harvest season in the province is projected to\ntake place from September to October, local rice supply is not expected\nto be sufficient to meet public demand until February or the Idulfitri\nperiod.<\/p>\n
Gunawan Benjamin, an economist at the Islamic University of North\nSumatra, said the prolonged threat is triggered by the El Nino\nphenomenon. Based on forecasts from the Meteorology, Climatology, and\nGeophysics Agency, this extreme weather phenomenon is predicted to\npersist until early 2027, potentially causing harvest failures and a\ndecline in national rice production volumes, including in North\nSumatra.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven if North Sumatra can maximise its rice production, that does\nnot mean the threat of shortages or price increases will be avoided,\u201d\nGunawan said on Thursday (20\/8).<\/p>\n
Gunawan explained that market mechanisms and trading networks among\nlarge traders are crucial factors. Rice from North Sumatra risks being\nabsorbed by other regions if neighbouring areas experience harvest\nfailures. This condition could drain North Sumatra\u2019s domestic rice\nreserves even if local production improves during the main harvest\nseason.<\/p>\n
The long-term threat exacerbates the problem of limited rice supply\nthat has recently drawn complaints from retail traders and modern retail\nmanagers in North Sumatra. Although it has not yet triggered panic\nbuying at the household level, the disappearance of several rice brands\nfrom the market is beginning to threaten the sustainability of culinary\nsector businesses that depend on certain types of rice.<\/p>\n
For short-term supply disruptions, Gunawan estimates that retail\nmarket conditions could improve within one to two weeks as harvest\nschedules begin in several rice-producing areas. However, he stressed\nthe need for rapid intervention from Perum Bulog during this transition\nperiod.<\/p>\n
Gunawan also criticised the weak governance of rice supply data, both\nthat managed by the government and by rice mill operators. According to\nhim, data on rice availability at the ground level is highly volatile\nbecause it depends on weather dynamics and farmers\u2019 success rates.<\/p>\n
To date, mapping of production figures, consumption, and\ncross-provincial rice distribution flows is considered not yet fully\naccurate. In fact, integration of supply data is crucial as a risk\nmitigation instrument to predict future market shocks.<\/p>\n
He urged the government to immediately formulate effective policies\nto mitigate the impact of El Nino. Without strategic measures, this\nproblem has the potential to cripple regional food security until\n2027.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/rice-production-disruptions-loom-over-north-sumatra-until-early-2027-1787233972", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }