RI needs to formulate a long-term strategy<\/p>\n
Although the government appears to have fought the current
\ncrisis tooth and nail, it does not seem to have abated. Jusuf
\nWanandi, chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Center for
\nStrategic and International Studies, talks of pitfalls lying
\nahead.<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Despite some relief from the World Bank and
\ndonor governments in the form of financial assistance and aid
\nprograms, Indonesia remains in a severe crisis.<\/p>\n
This is because the country is undergoing not only an economic
\ncrisis but a political crisis as well. The economic crisis is, in
\nitself, quite complicated -- requiring solutions to the huge debt
\nproblems faced by private corporations and the restructuring of a
\nbanking system that has practically collapsed.<\/p>\n
The real economy is shrinking rapidly and there are no signs
\nof even the slightest move toward a reversal. Meanwhile, there is
\nthe big challenge of developing social safety net programs that
\nare effective and sustainable.<\/p>\n
The task is immense and the concern, as expressed in a
\ndeclaration by 15 prominent Indonesia economists, is that the
\nHabibie government is unable to overcome these difficulties
\nbecause it has yet to develop a coherent and consistent policy
\nand suffers from a lack of necessary leadership.<\/p>\n
This situation is compounded by a political crisis caused by a
\ntotal loss in confidence in the government. Many say the current
\nadministration lacks political legitimacy because they believe it
\nis an extension of the old Soeharto regime.<\/p>\n
What makes matters worse is that many observers believe the
\npolitical behavior of the Habibie government is no different from
\nthat of its predecessor.<\/p>\n
The government's lack of credibility and public confidence, a
\nproblem faced by the military as well, has led to a situation in
\nwhich anarchy may very well be just below the surface of our
\nnational fabric. A little rumor could create major havoc with
\nsevere implications for the economy.<\/p>\n
What can be expected to happen in the near future? One
\npossibility is that the country will embark on real political
\nreform following a special session of the People's Consultative
\nAssembly (MPR) in November. Such reform could be strengthened
\nfurther by general elections scheduled for May 1999.<\/p>\n
The other possibility is that the political and economic
\nsituation could continue to deteriorate with the government being
\nunable to arrest the situation.<\/p>\n
If such a situation arose, the government would not be able to
\nguarantee national stability and would have to transfer power to
\nanother transitional government, possibly through the MPR. Both
\npossibilities are not far-fetched since the situation remains
\nhighly uncertain.<\/p>\n
Whatever happens, Indonesians need to begin to formulate a
\nlong-term strategy for the country.<\/p>\n
In the economic field, a new situation is likely to emerge.
\nIndonesian conglomerations, mostly run by Chinese-Indonesians,
\nwill no longer be relevant since they are currently heavily
\nindebted and probably will not be able to overcome their
\ndifficulties on their own.<\/p>\n
Many will go bankrupt, be taken over by foreigners or be
\nnationalized.<\/p>\n
It will take some time before Indonesians, both indigenous and
\nethnic Chinese, can become big players again in the economy.
\nIndonesian businesses will mostly be involved in medium- and
\nsmall-scale activities. At the other end, there are efforts to
\nstrengthen cooperatives. But this will not be successful unless
\nthey are totally reformed.<\/p>\n
Indonesians must accept the fact that in the medium term, the
\neconomy will be dominated by foreign corporations and investors.<\/p>\n
Attention should not be focused on the issue of ownership,
\nthough. Instead, it would be more appropriate to devise policies
\nthat would induce foreign investors to increase domestic income,
\ncreate jobs and enhance productivity and skills in the economy.
\nIn this regard, human resources development will play a critical
\nrole.<\/p>\n
In the end, inclusive growth, in which all groups in society
\nbenefit from development, is key to a successful development
\nstrategy.<\/p>\n
Today, political trends reflect a desire for a more democratic
\nand open society. There cannot be a return to the repressive
\npolitical system of the Soeharto regime.<\/p>\n
Public pressure regarding this is so strong that the Habibie
\ngovernment has no other option than to accept the trend. The
\nemergence of new political parties is a natural development, and
\nthe political role of the Armed Forces will definitely be
\nlimited.<\/p>\n
Given the severe limitations imposed on people's political
\nfreedoms for over four decades, it is only natural that there is
\nstrong pressure to go in the direction of complete political
\nfreedom. The challenge for our society is to ensure that this
\ndesire for freedom will be translated into a real democracy that
\nis sustainable.<\/p>\n
In this context, the granting of a special status to East
\nTimor would be a first step toward a political solution. If this
\nprocess leads to a referendum and independence, this would have
\nto be accepted.<\/p>\n
Yet, precautions should be taken from now on toward other
\nparts of Indonesia where separatist tendencies are a problem,
\nsuch as Irian Jaya and Aceh.<\/p>\n
Such tendencies are not as strong in these other parts as in
\nEast Timor, but they cannot be dismissed either. A just and
\nhumane policy toward these regions must include a generous amount
\nof autonomy.<\/p>\n
If Indonesia becomes a more open and democratic nation, it
\nwould have a positive impact on Southeast Asia given the
\ncountry's dominance in the region. This could mean that the
\nAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), too, would be
\ntransformed into a more open, creative and integrative regional
\ninstitution.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/ri-needs-to-formulate-a-long-term-strategy-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}