Indonesia\u2019s 72-month trade surplus streak, unbroken since May 2020,\ncame to an end in May 2026. The nation\u2019s trade balance recorded a\ndeficit of US$1.61 billion, with exports valued at US$23.20 billion and\nimports reaching US$24.81 billion. In June 2026, the trade balance\nremained in deficit, albeit narrowing to US$450 million, with exports of\nUS$25.46 billion and imports of US$25.91 billion. Nevertheless,\ncumulatively, Indonesia\u2019s trade balance for the January\u2013June 2026 period\nstill posted a surplus of US$3.58 billion.<\/p>\n
Trade Minister Budi Santoso stated that the monthly deficit was\ninseparable from the soaring value of oil and gas imports, exacerbated\nby the surge in global oil prices. He explained that while the volume of\nboth oil and gas and non-oil and gas imports declined, the trade balance\ntipped into deficit because global crude oil prices rose above US$100\nper barrel, compared to a normal price of around US$60\u2013US$65 per barrel.\n\u201cThe reason for the deficit in May is that prices started to rise\nsharply in March and April. That affected our trade balance in May,\u201d\nBudi said. He noted that the volume of oil and gas imports in May 2026\nwas 4.3 million tonnes, down 12.4 per cent from 4.9 million tonnes in\nApril. Non-oil and gas imports also fell from 21.5 million tonnes in\nApril to 18 million tonnes in May, a decline of 15.7 per cent. \u201cIn\nreality, our imports fell in volume terms, but rose in value because oil\nprices increased,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
The minister underscored that Indonesia\u2019s imports are indeed high,\nbut the type of goods imported must be considered. Indonesia\u2019s import\nstructure is dominated by raw materials and auxiliary materials, which\naccounted for 71.37 per cent of the total in the first half of 2026.\n\u201cRaw and auxiliary materials are for production; indeed, many are still\nimported. Then 19.94 per cent are capital goods such as machinery for\nproduction. The remaining 8.69 per cent are consumer goods,\u201d Budi\nexplained. \u201cThere are actually not many imports of consumer goods or\nfinished products used directly by consumers. Most imports are raw\nmaterials and auxiliary materials.\u201d<\/p>\n
Yusuf Rendy Manilet, an economist at the Center of Reform on\nEconomics (CORE) Indonesia, assessed that the trade deficit in June 2026\ndoes not yet reflect a weakening of the external sector. He argued the\nsituation is more accurately viewed as part of a trade structure\nadjustment process, even though the deficit occurred for two consecutive\nmonths. He explained that export performance is still showing a positive\ntrend. The export value in June reached US$25.46 billion, growing 8.84\nper cent year-on-year, mainly supported by non-oil and gas exports such\nas nickel, mineral fuels, and vegetable oils. Conversely, pressure on\nthe trade balance stemmed from a 34.27 per cent surge in imports to\nUS$25.91 billion. The largest increase occurred in oil and gas imports,\nwhich jumped more than 100 per cent, pushing the oil and gas sector\ndeficit to US$3.49 billion. The non-oil and gas trade surplus of US$3.04\nbillion was insufficient to cover this deficit. \u201cOn the other hand, the\nrise in imports also indicates that domestic demand remains quite\nstrong. Most imports consist of raw materials, auxiliary materials, and\ncapital goods used for production and investment. In economic analysis,\nsuch imports tend to be productive because they support increased\nindustrial capacity,\u201d Yusuf said.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/restoring-the-interrupted-surplus-trend-1786661470", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }