Rectors Forum sets up parallel vote tabulation<\/p>\n
By M.M.I. Ahyani<\/p>\n
BANDUNG (JP): Are you interested in finding out early results
\nof the polls' ballot count?<\/p>\n
Well then go to the website of the Rectors Forum at
\nhttp:\/\/forumrektor.itb.ac.id. or drop by the Rector Forum's
\nsecretariat in Bandung or in Jakarta.<\/p>\n
The location of the site for the public announcement of
\ndetails is as yet undecided. Wisma Antara or the Hotel Indonesia
\nhave been proposed as possible forum locations.<\/p>\n
If everything goes smoothly, two days after the voting day on
\nMonday, June 7, the Rectors Forum will be able to present the
\nestimated result of 70 percent of the entire ballot counting.<\/p>\n
As one of the poll watchdogs -- besides KIPP, Unfrel and some
\nothers -- the Rectors Forum will feature its own ballot counting
\nmethods.<\/p>\n
According to forum chairman Liliek Hendrajaya, who is also
\nrector of the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), the election
\nwatchdog will estimate the vote with the help of a statistical
\nmethod known as Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT).<\/p>\n
"This method will be a complementary method and enables
\nelection monitoring by, at the same time, conducting scientific
\ntests," he said in Bandung on Thursday.<\/p>\n
The PVT is a common statistical sampling method. Its
\nsuperiority lies in its scientific analysis, for example with the
\nhelp of the cross correlation method.<\/p>\n
Apart from quantitative calculations in the form of
\ncompilation and tabulation of data, the forum's PVT method will
\nalso feature a qualitative interpretation of data already
\nobtained.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, a statistician from ITB's mathematics
\ndepartment, Ms. Dumaria Tampubolon, who will head the PVT program
\nfor the Rectors Forum, said there were shortcomings in the method
\nto be used in the upcoming elections.<\/p>\n
"As one of the statistical tests, PVT will not be entirely
\nperfect. However, as a scientific tool, this method will be very
\nuseful to provide a track record and new data to be used in the
\nanalysis of the next general election," she said.<\/p>\n
The PVT method has been applied in more than 20 general
\nelections in countries such as Chile, the Philippines, some
\nAfrican states, and Cambodia.<\/p>\n
"The result obtained from PVT in the Philippines when Corazon
\nAquino won the elections was quite significant with ballot
\ncounting being undertaken by Comelec and Namfrel," Dumaria said.<\/p>\n
PVT has stimulated the interest of academics joining the
\nRectors Forum. It was introduced here by the National Democratic
\nInstitute from the United States, which has extended technical
\nassistance to poll monitoring agencies.<\/p>\n
"It seems that a scientific method like this is quite relevant
\nto us at the Rectors Forum," Hendrajaya said.<\/p>\n
However, a dilemma caused by a limitation in the application
\nof PVT has arisen.<\/p>\n
Data from local polling stations (TPS) for the elections is
\nmeager, while their presence is important to determine the design
\nof the survey and the sample to be collected.<\/p>\n
"Data from the 1997 elections is not relevant any more.
\nHowever, as the data we really need is not available, we have to
\nuse various assumptions to be able to draw up a survey and
\nsampling design," Dumaria said.<\/p>\n
Out of a total of 320,000 TPS already decided upon, the
\nRectors Forum has agreed to collect random samples from 8,900
\nTPS.<\/p>\n
"There are usually two methods for the design of the survey
\nand the sample. Under the first method, determine first the
\nmargin of error and then the size of the sample. Under the second
\nmethod, it is a reverse process: determine first the size of the
\nsample and then the margin of error," Dumaria said.<\/p>\n
After considering a variety of constraints, such as financing,
\nhuman resources, and available equipment, the Rectors Forum opted
\nfor the second method.<\/p>\n
"We determine first the size of the sample and then calculate
\nthe margin of error. Besides it is not possible for us to collect
\na sample from all TPS. We have found, finally, that the margin of
\nerror is quite small, namely zero point such and such," Dumaria
\nsaid.<\/p>\n
It is true that the number of TPS used as a sample is small.
\nHowever, the Rector Forum's PVT method uses individual voters as
\nsample units. With the assumption that one TPS will serve some
\n500 voters, some 400,000 samples will be obtained.<\/p>\n
Isolated areas<\/p>\n
According to Hendrajaya, the Rectors Forum will try to cover
\nareas that other monitoring agencies are unable to cover,
\nespecially considering that the random sample for PVT has already
\nbeen obtained. Although a TPS is located in a remote place, it
\nmust be visited to ensure that the result of PVT will be
\naccurate.<\/p>\n
"Once a TPS has been included in the sample, it must be
\nmonitored, no matter how difficult it is to get there," he said.<\/p>\n
Provinces considered difficult to reach are Maluku, Aceh, East
\nTimor and some other provinces whose territories are separated by
\nthe sea. However, Hendrajaya remained optimistic, saying the
\nforum had recruited at least 220,000 volunteers to monitor the
\nelections.<\/p>\n
In addition, at least 270 universities are associated with the
\nforum. Data from them will be fed into computers and sent to
\nprocessing centers in Bandung and Jakarta.<\/p>\n
"This data may be sent through facsimile or the Internet.
\nCurrently, approximately 30 universities have been linked up to
\nthe educational Internet managed by ITB with the assistance of a
\nsatellite owned by Japan," said Basuki, who is responsible for
\nthe computer network at the Rectors Forum.<\/p>\n
"Universities not associated in the Internet will have to rely
\non public Internet networks such as Wasantara Net or other
\nInternet Service Providers," he said.<\/p>\n
To secure the data, 120 facsimiles at Wisma Antara will adopt
\na closed user-group system so that other parties cannot
\ninterfere. Data sent through the Internet channel will be
\nencrypted first to prevent decoding by other parties.<\/p>\n
It is on the basis of these preparations that the Rectors
\nForum predicts they can release estimated vote results eight days
\nafter the polling date.<\/p>\n
Data discrepancies<\/p>\n
A problem may arise if the estimate made on the basis of PVT
\nmethods differs markedly from the calculation made by the General
\nElections Commission (KPU) or other poll watchdogs undertaking
\nballot counting.<\/p>\n
Hendrajaya emphasized that the results of the PVT calculations
\nwill only be used only as a means of comparison.<\/p>\n
"Certainly PVT-based calculations cannot be claimed or made a
\npolitical instrument by the losing parties. To avoid this
\npossibility, until the issuance of the official result by KPU,
\nPVT-based calculations will only be in the form of compilation
\nand tabulation data, along with some explanations but without a
\nconclusion."<\/p>\n
Earlier, executive director of the forum Sudjana Sapi'ie said
\nthe result of the calculations would be the same as those
\nobtained by KPU only if a computer network was allowed access to
\nKPU's computer network.<\/p>\n
"It is always possible that calculation results may differ
\nfrom those issued by KPU. Therefore, an election monitoring
\nagency must acquire data-processing capability on a par with that
\nof KPU, so that a check may be run to find out whether the KPU
\ndata is correct or otherwise," he said.<\/p>\n
According to Sapi'ie, KPU would standby their result, while
\nmonitoring agencies would have to verify their results.<\/p>\n
He acknowledged a problem might arise if verification of KPU
\nresults led to the discovery of discrepancies.<\/p>\n
The question is whether an election monitoring agency has to
\nimmediately expose this discrepancy to the public, at the risk of
\nsparking chaos.<\/p>\n
"It is at this juncture that a poll watchdog should assume its
\nresponsibility and act with great caution. We must weigh
\ncarefully whether or not it is for the good of the society if we,
\nthe intellectuals joining the election monitoring agency, divulge
\nthe discrepancy to the public. Who will be responsible if this
\nexposure leads to social turmoil?<\/p>\n
"So, the exposure of discrepancies in data must be weighed
\nvery carefully because this may also enhance the community's
\nconfidence in the credibility of poll watchdogs," Sapi'ie said.<\/p>\n
If contradictory data stems from foul play, the situation will
\nbe of great concern. Should this scenario play out, election
\nmonitoring agencies must not stay silent, especially now that
\nthere are 48 parties which must be ranked according to the
\npercentage of the vote won.<\/p>",
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