Prospect of an Islamic presidential candidates<\/p>\n
Muhammad Qodari, Indonesian Research Institute (LSI), Jakarta,
\nqodari@hotmail.com<\/p>\n
A compromise has finally sealed the law on presidential
\nelections. That compromise has also opened opportunities for a
\nlarge pool of presidential candidates. This is due to the
\nstipulation in the law that a political party or a combination of
\npolitical parties winning a minimum of 3 percent of the seats in
\nthe House of Representatives (DPR) or 5 percent of the national
\nvote will be eligible to nominate a pair of presidential and vice
\npresidential candidates.<\/p>\n
Imagine if the law stipulated a much stricter requirement on
\nseats and votes, say 20 percent as initially proposed by the
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and the
\nGolkar Party. Both nationalist-secular parties would be the only
\nparties to win 20 percent of the total vote and seats.<\/p>\n
Given that the results of the 2004 legislative elections will
\nlikely not be much different from the elections in 1999, there
\nwould have been no more than three pairs of candidates in the
\nfirst round of the presidential race.<\/p>\n
PDI Perjuangan and Golkar would each nominate their own
\npreferred candidates. Golkar is not likely to join forces with
\nPDI Perjuangan. The former New Order ruling party would propose
\nits own candidates, hoping they would survive to the second round
\nof the election, along with Megawati Soekarnoputri and her
\nrunning mate. What about the second round? That's a whole other
\nbattle with different strategies.<\/p>\n
But who would be the third pair of candidates? The pair would
\nmost likely represent a coalition of Islamic political parties.
\nNone of the Islamic-based political parties won more than 15
\npercent of seats or vote in 1999. Again, taking into account that
\nthe voting pattern next year will likely resemble 1999, Islamic
\npolitical parties will have to form a coalition in order to be
\nable to nominate their own candidates. The only exception would
\nbe National Awakening Party (PKB), which may prefer to join
\nforces with either PDI Perjuangan or Golkar.<\/p>\n
As the new law has stipulated a threshold of 3 percent of the
\nseats in the House or 5 percent of the total vote, it is likely
\nthat we are going to see a very different set of presidential and
\nvice presidential candidates in next year's election. First off,
\nthere will be many more pairs of candidates.<\/p>\n
This is especially true for the Islamic camp because the law
\nwill allow prominent Islamic-based political parties, including
\nPKB, the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Mandate
\nParty (PAN), to meet the threshold. Smaller Islamic parties such
\nas the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Prosperous Justice Party
\n(PKS, formerly the Justice Party or PK) may have to work extra
\nhard to meet the threshold, but they have the potential.<\/p>\n
Five Islamic political parties, of course, does not
\nnecessarily mean five pairs of candidates, against two pairs from
\nthe nationalist camp -- PDI Perjuangan and Golkar. Some
\ncoalitions may be formed, within the same or across ideological
\nlines.<\/p>\n
It is almost impossible to predict all the different scenarios
\nthat could occur. Will the PKS merge with the PBB, considering
\nboth have the same conservative Islamic leanings? Or is it going
\nto continue its current cooperation with PAN (together PAN and
\nPKS form the Reform Faction in the House)?<\/p>\n
Yet another coalition is possible as the PKS may become the
\nleader of the \"minor\" Islamic political parties -- parties with
\nvery small numbers of votes, to the extent that they are not
\neligible by themselves to nominate candidates.<\/p>\n
Yet all these scenarios may be too good to be true. Would the
\nPKB really join a coalition with PAN given the long rivalry
\nbetween their respective main bases, the two largest Islamic
\norganizations in the country -- Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and
\nMuhammadiyah?<\/p>\n
Despite the fact that the current vice president and chairman
\nof the PPP, Hamzah Haz, is an NU follower and perhaps more than
\nhalf of PPP's votes in 1999 came from NU members, it is also
\nunlikely that the PKB would form a coalition with the PPP for
\nnumerous reasons: the NU's past disappointment with the PPP and
\nthe rivalry between the PKB's main figure, former president
\nAbdurrahman Wahid, and Hamzah Haz, to name just two.<\/p>\n
History has shown that in this Muslim-dominated country,
\nIslamic political parties tend to compete rather than cooperate
\nwith each other. This is because each political party has claimed
\nto be the \"true\" Islamic party.<\/p>\n
There have also been rivalries among Islamic political leaders
\n-- even within the same political party. Unity has never been the
\n\"trademark\" of Islamic political parties. Five Islamic political
\nparties united in the early 1970s to form the PPP. Ironically,
\nthis unity was imposed and engineered by former president
\nSoeharto and his political operators.<\/p>\n
If the law on presidential elections stipulated 20 percent or
\nmore of the total vote or seats in the House as a condition for
\nnominating presidential and vice presidential candidates, we
\nwould probably see the first \"formal\" coalition signed by Islamic
\npolitical parties with a common purpose to nominate Islamic
\ncandidates (an informal and very loose coalition, the \"axis
\nforce\" led by Amien Rais, was formed in 1999 to support
\nAbdurrahman Wahid's candidacy against Megawati in the
\npresidential election).<\/p>\n
However, given the newly approved presidential election law,
\nand also the country's past record, a \"united Islamic front\" is
\nonce again just a hope, not a reality.<\/p>",
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