Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Economists and economic experts see the\npotential for Indonesia\u2019s economic growth to remain stagnant over the\nnext three months. This was revealed in the Economic Survey Report by\nthe Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM) at the Faculty of\nEconomics and Business, University of Indonesia (FEB UI).<\/p>\n
\u201cLooking ahead over the next three months, experts generally predict\nthat the pace of economic growth will remain unchanged from the current\nfigure,\u201d according to the LPEM FEB UI survey report, quoted on Monday\n(30\/3\/2026).<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted by LPEM FEB UI on 85 economic experts from\n24 February to 9 March 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe majority, namely 36 out of 85 experts (42%), share this view,\nfollowed by 28 experts (33%) who anticipate a worsening condition and 21\neconomic experts (25%) who predict an improvement,\u201d based on the survey\nresults.<\/p>\n
LPEM FEB UI noted an average response of -0.11, right at the neutral\npoint, reflecting a collective expectation of general stagnation with a\nslight downward tendency. The relatively moderate confidence score of\n7.47 indicates uncertainty among the experts. The subdued growth outlook\ngenerally points to stagnant business activity and cautious consumer\nspending in the coming months.<\/p>\n
Experts say they anticipate inflationary pressures to increase over\nthe next three months relative to the current figure.<\/p>\n
The dominant portion, namely 64 out of 85 experts (75%), predict the\npressure will rise, while 18 (21%) see no change, and only a small\nminority of 3 (4%) anticipate easing.<\/p>\n
According to the survey, the average response reached a strong figure\nof 0.91 with a relatively high confidence score of 7.60: \u201cIndicating a\nbroad and strong consensus that inflation will intensify in the near\nterm.\u201d<\/p>\n
Experts partly attribute this outlook to ongoing geopolitical\ntensions, as disruptions to global supply chains and energy markets due\nto conflicts tend to spill over into domestic price levels.<\/p>\n
This result also marks a significant increase from the previous\nround\u2019s average of +0.55, indicating that experts\u2019 concerns about\ninflation are not only persisting but also intensifying.<\/p>\n
Then, in anticipating labour market conditions over the next three\nmonths, the majority of experts, namely 37 out of 85 (44%), predict\nconditions will remain unchanged. However, the combined weight of 39\n(46%) experts who expect the market to tighten is substantial enough to\npull the overall assessment into strongly negative territory. Only 9\n(11%) predict the labour market will loosen.<\/p>\n
The average response of -0.52 reflects labour market prospects that,\nwhile dominated by stagnation expectations, harbour significant\nconcerns.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis figure reflects a weakening from the previous round\u2019s average\nof -0.38, indicating that experts\u2019 concerns about the labour market are\ndeepening rather than stabilising. The moderate confidence score of 7.46\nout of 10 shows uncertainty among the experts,\u201d the survey report\nstates.<\/p>\n
Experts generally anticipate the business environment will remain\nunchanged over the next three months, with the majority, namely 40 out\nof 85 (47%), holding this view. However, an almost equal portion of 39\n(46%) predict conditions will worsen. Only 6 (7%) expect the business\nenvironment to improve.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe average response of -0.49 reflects a broader pattern of\nstagnation-dominated expectations but with a negative bias seen\nthroughout this survey round.\u201d<\/p>\n
This figure marks a further decline from the previous round\u2019s average\nof -0.28, indicating that experts\u2019 concerns about the business\nenvironment continue to accumulate rather than stabilise. The confidence\nscore stands at 7.57 out of 10.<\/p>\n
Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto believes\nIndonesia\u2019s first-quarter 2026 economic growth will reach 5.5%. This\nfigure matches the government\u2019s benchmark target previously set at\n5.5-6% for the first three months of this year. This growth will be\ndriven by Ramadan activities.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt looks like the 5.5 target can be achieved. The vibrancy during\nRamadan,\u201d Airlangga told the media at the DJP Mosque some time ago.<\/p>\n
The Coordinating Minister also said inflation this year could\npotentially rise due to the low base effect from deflation last year\nwhen there was a policy of subsidised electricity tariffs in\nJanuary-February 2025.<\/p>\n
In addition, Airlangga emphasised that Work From Anywhere will be\nimplemented after the long Eid holiday and is aimed at civil servants\n(ASN) as well as recommendations to private sector workers.<\/p>\n
\u201cWFA after Eid will be implemented. (For) ASN or recommendations to\nthe private sector but not for public services,\u201d Airlangga added.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, inflation due to rising global oil prices is a risk\nthat concerns the public. Regarding this, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi\nSadewa has assured that the government will not raise subsidised oil or\nsubsidised fuel (BBM) prices.<\/p>\n
He also ensured that the State Budget (APBN) remains safe if oil\nprices reach US$100 per barrel. This has been conveyed by Purbaya to\nPrabowo.<\/p>\n
He also emphasised that the 2026 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget\n(APBN) deficit will not exceed the safe limit of 3%. In 2025, the\ndeficit was recorded at Rp 695.1 trillion or 2.92% of GDP.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/prolonged-middle-east-war-indonesian-economists-warn-of-this-1774843137", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }