Price hike protests not a big threat to Megawati: Analysts<\/p>\n
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Mounting calls for President Megawati Soekarnoputri to step down
\nover the recent hikes in fuel, energy and telephone rates will
\nlikely fizzle in the coming weeks as the political elite remains
\nintent on keeping her in power, analysts have said.<\/p>\n
Students, labor unions and activists are planning mass
\ndemonstrations over the next few days. Last week protesters
\ncharged that the triple price hike policy was enough to call for
\nMegawati's resignation.<\/p>\n
With thousands expected to turn out across the country in
\nsimilar protests, Megawati will face her first mass scale
\ndemonstration against her leadership in the one-and-a-half years
\nshe has been in power, analysts said.<\/p>\n
However, unless the protests get out of control, they added,
\nthey pose a minimal risk against Megawati's presidency.<\/p>\n
\"There won't be another case like Gus Dur,\" National Institute
\nof Sciences (LIPI) political analyst Syamsuddin Haris said on
\nSunday.<\/p>\n
\"Our politicians are simply tired of a Gus Dur scenario,\" he
\nsaid, referring to the nickname of former president Abdurrahman
\nWahid.<\/p>\n
Lawmakers dismissed in 2001 Megawati's predecessor for
\nincompetence after months of haggling during a political process
\nthat many still question its legitimacy.<\/p>\n
Political parties might have since agreed on keeping Megawati
\nin power until the 2004 general election, analysts said.<\/p>\n
Haris added that the loose coalition of the country's two
\nlargest political parties would thwart political attempts to oust
\nher.<\/p>\n
Megawati chairs the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle
\n(PDI Perjuangan), which won the 1999 election over the once
\nruling Golkar party. Both parties occupy most of the seats at the
\nHouse of Representatives.<\/p>\n
Even as other parties join in criticism against the price hike
\npolicy, PDI Perjuangan will likely count on Golkar to face them,
\nsaid political analyst Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia.<\/p>\n
\"It's only one year until the general election and parties
\nwill of course take advantage of the public outcry against the
\npolicy,\" he said.<\/p>\n
PDI Perjuangan is seen as being close in rank with Golkar due
\nto the latter's strong influence in politics after 30 years in
\npower.<\/p>\n
And with a Supreme Court verdict on the graft case of its
\nchairman, Akbar Tandjung, still pending, Golkar is relying on
\nsupport from Megawati's party as well.<\/p>\n
The symbiosis is not shared with other parties, such as the
\nNational Mandate Party (PAN), chaired by People Consultative
\nAssembly Speaker (MPR) Amien Rais.<\/p>\n
Amien has joined in the protest over the price hikes. He and
\nhis party have also led critics against the recent sale of a
\ngovernment stake in the telecommunications firm PT Indosat to a
\nSingaporean company.<\/p>\n
But neither Amien nor his party will go as far as to demand
\nthat Megawati resign, Arbi said. \"For him the present government
\nmeans having continued access to political power. What's the use
\n(of unseating Megawati) if the elections are just a year away?\"<\/p>\n
Until the sale of Indosat and the price hikes, there had been
\nlittle criticism against the government, due in part to
\nattention focusing more on the threat of terrorism.<\/p>\n
Brisk progress in the Oct. 12 Bali bombing investigation and a
\nhistoric peace accord signed with separatists in Aceh in December
\nhave helped improve the government's image.<\/p>\n
Arbi predicted that the planned mass demonstrations would
\nlikely go unheeded by the government.<\/p>\n
\"Megawati will press ahead with the price hikes since there is
\nnot enough pressure from legislators to cancel them,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Fuel price hikes under Abdurrahman's presidency were more
\nrisky because of shaky support from the legislature.<\/p>\n
The mass riots that followed a decision to increase fuel
\nprices led to the ouster of then president Soeharto in 1998.<\/p>\n
Although unpopular, the policy is necessary to trim the state
\nbudget of excessive expenses while state revenue is scarce.<\/p>\n
It is also part of the country's economic reforms program. And
\nsigns of backtracking on the reforms commitment would risk the
\ngovernment's ties with foreign lenders.<\/p>\n
LIPI political analyst Ikrar Nusa Bhakti questioned why
\nlegislators criticized the price hike policy when they earlier
\nagreed to it during consultations with the government.<\/p>\n
\"The way I see it, it's because the election is approaching so
\nparties want to look like they understand the people's
\naspirations,\" Ikrar said.<\/p>\n
He said the government should intensify its consultations with
\nthe House before announcing unpopular policies like the sale of
\nstate companies or the increase in utilities.<\/p>",
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