President Susilo must stamp out terrorist groups<\/p>\n
W. Scott Thompson, Sukawati, Bali<\/p>\n
How do we measure the real cost of the three bombs in Bali
\nthis past weekend? Of course anyone would go past the tragedy of
\nthe dead and wounded and add to that the economic cost of lost
\nbusiness that inevitably will follow. After all, the 2002 bombs
\ncost the fabled isle over half its tourism in the first year,
\nadding up to billions of dollars in losses. But what do those
\nadded costs really amount to?<\/p>\n
Is it sufficient just to add up the losses of income almost
\nevery Balinese family suffered? Or should we add the medical
\ncosts from the resulting inability to buy medicines? And add in
\nthe lost cost to society from educational programs abandoned? It
\nall depends on how comprehensive we wish to be. But let's be
\nclear: The real costs of such trauma as this is always far
\ngreater than assumed.<\/p>\n
Let us consider Indonesia as a whole. If President Susilo
\nBambang Yudhoyono does not show leadership and the casualty list
\nexceeds one hundred, it is possible that Bali will lose another
\nyear of tourism, in the sense that for two years half its
\nprospective tourists will change plans; and that the economic
\ngrowth rate of Indonesia as a whole will be cut by two percentage
\npoints.<\/p>\n
So we're well above US$5 billion now in losses. But add in the
\nopportunity costs -- the things that might have been done with
\nthat growth money -- plus the human costs in Sumatran villages
\nwhere just a little bit less income, in already poor regions,
\nmeans more babies die in childbirth, more academic programs are
\naborted, and so on. Would it be about right to say we are talking
\nnot 100 casualties but 50,000 -- and almost all of them, like the
\ncasualty list last weekend in Bali, Muslim! it simply isn't fair
\nfor good Muslims to bear the vast costs of a fringe of fanatics.<\/p>\n
The economic question now is whether the new Bali bombs will
\nbe a tourist blip or another catastrophe. We don't know the final
\nnumbers, but they will be substantially less than 2002's.
\nhowever, tourists might just say \"this is the third big one for
\nIndonesia,\" and given the bureaucratic hassles imposed on
\ntourists -- the long lines to pay the \"visa on arrival\" for a
\nshortened period, compared with Malaysia and Thailand, both
\ngreatly outdrawing the archipelago -- the cut in tourism may be
\nas bad as in 2002.<\/p>\n
The big difference however is in leadership potential. In 2002
\nPresident Megawati Soekarnoputri was at her calm best -- or
\nworst. It took quite a time for even to go out and inspect the
\ndamage, let alone say anything meaningful to rally the nation. It
\nseemed as if she was just carrying on as usual, despite the
\nexplicit warning western intelligence services had given her of
\nthe imminence of an attack.<\/p>\n
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is cut from sturdier cloth.
\nHe went right to the site on Sunday. But quite possibly the
\nbiggest challenge he will have in his presidency, even possibly
\nin his life, is how he motivates Indonesia in the next weeks.<\/p>\n
He already had a big enough crisis on this hands. Like low-
\npaid city folk throughout the third world, the masses of
\nIndonesians dependent on cheap transportation don't get it that
\noil has to be paid for, and the price is not determined by cabals
\nof crooks in Jakarta, but by world market supply and demand.<\/p>\n
Indonesia has had the cheapest gas at the pump of any country
\nin the world save Iran, because government was paying half the
\nprice and running up huge deficits. these deficits were in turn
\ncheapening the currency (the rupiah had been at 8500 to the
\ndollar for several years before turning south this year to as low
\nas 11,000).<\/p>\n
President Susilo was firm, very firm, with the first increase.
\nHe told the parliament that it could debate all it wanted, but
\nthe decision was made and final. Now he's pushing the price up
\nnearer its real price, to cut that $11 billion subsidy and lower
\nthe deficit. The street doesn't like it.<\/p>\n
If he shows real leadership, addresses the country about
\nreality and what must be done to get the economy moving, by
\ngetting foreign investment and new oil fields pumping, and what
\nmust be done finally to end the scourge of terrorism, and gives
\nthe message in visits all over the country, he'll have made a
\ngood first step.<\/p>\n
It will be standing tall, the way Mahathir did in the Asian
\neconomic crisis, in freezing the Ringgit and defying foreign
\neconomic forces. It will be like President Kennedy rallying
\nAmerica for the Cuban Missile Crisis. It will be like President
\nCharles de Gaulle defying all the constraining political forces
\nof France and creating a path to a new republic.<\/p>\n
But it will take more. He is going to have to ask for special
\npowers during what he must call an emergency. It wouldn't be
\nunjustified among democracies to declare martial law for Bali,
\nfor a limited period, in order to root out the cadre behind the
\nbombers. Tourists wouldn't mind. Balinese wouldn't mind. My
\nBalinese employees reported that everyone wanted to storm the
\nKerobokan jail where the 2002 bomber-prisoners are; calmer voices
\nprevailed. And then things must start to happen. Sentences have
\nto be carried out swiftly against terrorists.<\/p>\n
But I remember precisely the title \"let the monsters swing.\" I
\nsuspect that until the JI knows that Susilo will maintain that
\ntough stance, and will show that he and the vast majority of the
\ncountry won't be intimidated, like Thatcher, the bombs will keep
\ncoming. Leniency will be interpreted as precisely that: As
\nweakness. Indonesia happily astonished the world last year with
\nits fair and honorable elections. It's the biggest state in the
\nregion and has to show strength or the region loses confidence
\ntoo.<\/p>\n
The writer is adjunct professor of international politics at
\nthe Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He resides part time in
\nBali.<\/p>",
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